Is a One-Year, $4.25 Million Contract Inevitable for Dylan Samberg and the Winnipeg Jets?

The Winnipeg Jets and restricted free agent defenceman Dylan Samberg are set to sort out their legal differences in an official arbitration hearing from Toronto on Wednesday. 

Electing for salary arbitration, Samberg chose to speed up the contract-signing process by way of an independent arbitrator and a courtroom, should the team, player and agent not find some middle ground prior to the official meeting. 

Could the arbitration filings just be a tactic for each side to see what the other is working with?

For general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff and company, that is hopefully the case.

Winnipeg claimed Samberg was worth $2.5 million, while the Hermantown, MN. product filed a $6 million ask.

With Samberg entering unrestricted free agency after next season, the arbitrator will only be able to hand out a maximum one-year contract after being presented with all the facts pertaining to the player and team at hand.

As has been the case over the last number of years, independent arbitrators have generally stuck rather close to the median value when assessing player and team asks. In the case of Dylan Samberg, that number would come in on a one-year contract worth $4.25 million - quite the upgrade from his recent $1.4 million cap hit, but much below his ask of $6 million annually.

The arbitrator will assess the situation and provide a resolution within 48 hours of the hearing. Incredibly, multiple contracts have been awarded over the past years that feature values exactly down the middle between the two numbers presented. 

Most folks in the know understand the importance of keeping a player of Samberg's capability around for a long time.

Drafted and developed by Winnipeg by way of the second round of the 2017 NHL Draft, Samberg has become a pivotal point man on Winnipeg's back-end. He is a top-four defender on the team while his career projectors should eventually see him line up with Josh Morrissey on the top pair as his experience continues to build. 

One of the league's top tier defensive players, Samberg has provided critical shutdown defence, specializing in shot blocking and edging out his opponents - from the middle of the ice, outward. 

In 60 games last season, the 26-year-old had six goals, 14 assists and an eye-popping +34 rating to go alongside 120 blocked shots while averaging 21:08 on the ice each game. Both his goal and point totals were career-highs, despite missing a considerable chunk of time recovering from a broken foot.

In the case of Jacob Trouba and Andrew Copp, the arbitration hearings with the Winnipeg Jets did not go smoothly. Both players - who happened to be Americans - left the team shortly after those situations for more local southern clubs. 

Samberg has, however, entering an offseason without a contract in the past. And in that case, he and the Jets sorted out his current deal five days into the free agency period. 

Having settled with forwards Morgan Barron and Gabe Vilardi prior to their proposed arbitration hearing dates over the past two weeks, Winnipeg will need to strike an eleventh hour deal with Samberg in order to avoid the short-term, one-year contract and land a long-term agreement with the defensive mainstay.  

Having recently married his long-time partner, Samberg has begun laying down roots in Winnipeg. His wife - a dentist - practices in the city's westernmost neighbourhood and intends on staying just six-and-a-half hours northwest of the city where the two played university sports together. 

But unless the two sides can strike a deal in the coming hours, a one-year agreement and the threat of departure for unrestricted free agency looms large in one year's time.