Don Amancio digs into the numbers
Real Madrid’s struggles against top teams in the last 2 years are largely blamed on a fragile defense, the departure of Toni Kroos, and lack of cohesion amongst the attacking players. But does that tell the entire story? A deeper dive into Madrid’s results over the last five seasons against Europe’s best reveals there is more behind Madrid’s recent lack of success against elite competition.
Real Madrid’s struggles against top-tier competition over the last 2 seasons have been well documented.
- Five losses in six matches against Barcelona
- Two wins, two ties and two losses against Atlético Madrid
- Losses in each of the last two seasons against Liverpool
- Losses in both legs of last season’s Champions League quarterfinal against Arsenal
- A 4-0 loss in the semi-final of the Club World Cup at the hands of PSG
I decided to take a deeper look at Madrid’s results against the toughest European competition over the last 2 seasons compared to the 2021/2022 through 2023/2024 period when the club won two Champions Leagues and two La Liga titles over three years. The findings reveal that there is more behind Madrid’s recent struggles against Europe’s best than just a leaky defense, the departure of the German midfield maestro, or a perceived lack of understanding amongst Madrid forward line.
In 23 matches over the last two seasons against top rivals, Madrid has lost twice as often as it has won. The club has managed only seven wins (30.4%) against 14 losses (60.9%) and two ties (8.7%). That is, of a possible 69 points, Madrid has managed to collect only a third (23). That is quite a strike contrast to the club’s performance in the preceding three seasons where in 42 matches against top-level competition, Madrid managed 25 victories (59.5%), six ties (14.3%) and 11 losses (26.2%), earning a possible 81 of 126 points (64.3%).
In the 23 matches over the past two seasons, Madrid scored 36 goals (1.56 average) and conceded 54 (2.43 average), a -18 goal difference. In the 42 matches against top-tier competition between 2021/2022 and 2023/2024, Madrid scored 86 goals (2.05 average) and conceded 62 (1.48 average), a +24 goal difference. On first look, it would appear that Madrid’s defense (or lack thereof) is the main culprit of the team’s hardships when facing tougher competition. But a closer look into those 23 matches reveals that Madrid has created nearly the same number of big chances (68 vs. 71) and shot attempts (328 vs. 329) that they have conceded against Europe’s best teams. However, Madrid has converted only 26 of their 68 big chances (38.2%) into goals, a significantly lower conversion ratio than the 52.1% (37 of 71) of their rivals. That is a reversal of what occurred between the 2021-2022 through 2023-2024 seasons when Madrid converted 51% of their big chances (52 of 102) into goals while their rivals found the back of the net for only 37.5% (36 of 96) of their big chances.
Madrid’s lack of clinical finishing is especially surprising given the addition of Kylian Mbappé to the team two years ago. Mbappé has produced 14 goals, scoring 13 times and assisting on another, in 20 matches against top competition with the los Blancos shirt. That return comes out to a goal every 126 minutes and a goal participation every 117 minutes. Solid numbers for sure. But it trails the scoring efficiency of Karim Benzema against top teams in his final two seasons in Madrid when the former captain produced 26 goals in 24 matches, finding the back of the net on 22 occasions and distributing another four assists — a goal every 99 minutes, a goal contribution every 84 minutes.
That Mbappé has not reached Benzema production against the strongest rivals is far from Madrid’s biggest problem. Jude Bellingham in his first year at Madrid produced eight goals (four goals + four assists) against top clubs in 13 matches — a goal or assist every 154 minutes. In the last two years, playing further back on the pitch, the Madrid midfielder has managed only four goal contributions (four goals + four assists) in 22 matches against top competition — a goal or assist every 489 minutes, half of which came in the first clásico this season. Vinicius in the last two seasons has produced 13 goals (six goals + seven assists) against the biggest clubs, a goal contribution every 146 minutes. That is below the high standard the Brazilian set in the preceding three seasons when he provided 30 goal contributions (15 goals + 15 assists) in 39 matches against elite competition — a goal or assist every 118 minutes on the pitch.
Perhaps the biggest culprit of Madrid’s lack of success against Europe’s best is the decline in production from Rodrygo. The brazilian in his first few seasons at Madrid demonstrated an ability to be Mr. Clutch, lest we not forget his two goals in the 90th and 91st minutes against Manchester City in 2022. Between the 2021/2022 and 2023/2024 seasons, Rodrygo produced 19 goals (13 goals + six assists) against elite competition — a goal contribution every 129 minutes. That has fallen drastically in the last two seasons during which the Brazilian winger has only five goal contributions (four goals + one assist) in 19 matches against top teams — a goal or assist every 247 minutes.
Madrid has generated more big chances (2.96) per match despite averaging less possession (48.2% on average) over the last two seasons compared to what the team averaged against top opponents during Toni Kroos’s final three seasons (2.43 big chances per match and 49.5% possession) with the club. Clearly Madrid is not struggling to generate goal scoring opportunities, but rather in converting them into goals at the same ratio they were during the 2021/2022 through 2023/2024 period. Improved efficiency in converting big chances coupled with better defending as Madrid recover Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger from injuries could still produce cheers rather than whistles at the Bernabéu this spring.
Category: General Sports
