You couldn’t ask for a more brutal set of back-to-back games in the Big East this year than going to UConn and then turning around and visiting St. John’s, and Xavier has pulled that particular set of matchups. The Muskies got clobbered just less than a week ago in Connecticut, seeing the game go out […]
You couldn’t ask for a more brutal set of back-to-back games in the Big East this year than going to UConn and then turning around and visiting St. John’s, and Xavier has pulled that particular set of matchups. The Muskies got clobbered just less than a week ago in Connecticut, seeing the game go out of reach before 10 minutes had passed and analytically final prior to the half. Now they hit the road to MSG to face a team that just beat UConn by 9 in the same venue.
The elder Pitino’s team lost to Providence on January 3rd to fall to 9-5. They haven’t lost since, ripping off 9 in a row, including battling X to the wire at Cintas a couple of weeks back. That game saw Tre Carroll drop 31 on 12-22 shooting, but a balanced St. John’s attack featuring five players in double figures enabled them to surge late and get the game across the line. That game was part of the current stretch for Xavier in which they have lost four out of five games, neatly running them towards the bottom of the league. St. John’s is moving the other direction at almost the same pace, trying to lock themselves into contention for a protected seed in the big dance. The Muskies are just trying to hold on for something resembling favorable seeding in the conference tournament. There aren’t that many ways to interpret the latest stretch as positive for Xavier, and there’s every chance it gets worse before it gets better. It has been a tough run lately for the Positive Vibes Only crowd, but there’s no better place to turn it around than the world’s most famous arena.
Team fingerprint
Monstrous in the paint (on offense). This is a pretty okay shooting team, but where they actually shine is crushing the offensive glass and getting to the line. They’re comfortably within the top 50 in the nation in both of those categories and just outside the top 10 in OReb%; their offense is predicated on flying to the glass when the ball goes up and allowing the officials to reward them for being aggressive going towards the goal. They do a solid job with ball security to put the cherry on top of their ability to win the free possession battle.
Defensively, their calling card is forcing turnovers, where they rank 24th in the country with a 20.3% TO rate. They also make life miserable for their opponents inside the arc, holding teams to just 47.5% shooting on twos. They can ben had on the glass and they’re susceptible to foul trouble, but they kill a lot of possessions with forced turnovers and aren’t giving up good shots when they give up shots at all. It all sums out to a top 25 defense to pair with their top 25 offense.
Players
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ian Jackson | Point Guard | All Wright |
| Sophomore | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’5″, 195 | Measurements | 6’3″, 190 |
| 10.9/2.4/1.3 | Game line | 7.5/1.8/2.2 |
| 43.1/36/89.8 | Shooting line | 46.8/45/81.8 |
| If being the only sophomore in a lineup full of seniors has any impact on Jackson’s mentality, it’s not making a meaningful appearance in his stat line. He leads the team in shots percentage by a wide margin in conference play and is looking to get his from all over. He’s a very good defender and absolutely cash from the free throw line. He has some holes in his game, namely not distributing at all and being a fairly poor performer inside the arc, but he sets the tone at the top of the defense and is fearless in hunting shots. | ||
| Oziyah Sellers | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 190 | Measurements | 6’5″, 200 |
| 10.9/3.1/2 | Game line | 10.8/2.7/3.7 |
| 43.8/36.7/84.8 | Shooting line | 38.3/34.8/78.5 |
| My man is posting an ORtg over 130 in conference play, but his usage rate in under 15%. He takes more twos than threes and balances those pretty evenly between the mid-range and the rim, but he’s shooting 56% inside the arc in conference play, giving him a fairly unique statistical profile for a high level modern guard. He also leads the conference in TO rate, which is pretty impressive for a guy who does a lot more than just catch and shoot. | ||
| Bryce Hopkins | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’7″, 225 | Measurements | 6’8″, 235 |
| 13.6/5.5/2.3 | Game line | 17.9/5.6/2.6 |
| 46.5/30.4/71.2 | Shooting line | 50.6/33.7/66.3 |
| An absolute glass cannon. When he’s healthy, he’s every bit the player opponents feared when known good dude Ed Cooley brought him to Providence. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just 17 games over the past two seasons, giving him just enough run to audition for one more NIL bag before shutting it down again last year. His days as a true three-llevel scorer appear to be behind him, but he’s efficient, strong on the glass at both ends, and draws a ton of fouls. | ||
| Dillon Mitchell | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 210 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 9.6/7/2.6 | Game line | 9.8/7.8/4.4 |
| 59.7/0/57.8 | Shooting line | 43.7/31.9/88.5 |
| Late of Texas (where he played Xavier) and Cincinnati (where he played Xavier), Mitchell is a familiar foe and an absolute monster on the glass at both ends. Of his 92 made buckets this year, 33 of them have been dunks; only 8 have been jumpers. Dude knows what he’s about and almost exclusively sticks to it. He’s just a vicious physical presence in the paint who will put you on a poster given half a chance. | ||
| Zuby Ejiofor | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’9″, 245 | Measurements | 6’10”, 241 |
| 15.9/7.6/3.5 | Game line | 11.2/3.8/1.3 |
| 53/33.3/70.2 | Shooting line | 43.4/41.3/70.6 |
| It’s not often the best rebounder on a team is also its best ball distributor, as Ejiofor leads St. John’s in raw rebounding and assist rate. After so many games against Xavier, there’s not much I have to tell you about this guy. He’s a brute on the glass, especially on the offensive end. He’s an excellent defender. He has significant nuance to his offensive game, scoring with aplomb from the mid-range and making good reads when help comes. He’s just a really good college basketball player and I’ll be pleased to see his eligibility run out. |
St. John’s is slightly below national average, getting just under 32% of their minutes from the bench. Their top five players in scoring and five of their top six in minutes, rebounding, and assisting are all starters. The player that confounds that trend in minutes, scoring, and rebounding is sophomore wing Joson Sanon. He’s averaging 8.5/2.7/0.6 per game on a shooting line of .364/.367/.810. Other than shooting 36% from inside the arc, his numbers don’t really jump off the page for good or ill. He’s just a really solid and versatile sixth man.
The only other two players to feature in every game are Dylan Darling and Ruben Pray. Darling is a 6’1″ guard averaging a modest 6.0/1.9/2.1 on a bonkers 134.8 ORtg in conference play. That’s largely on the back of being 14-28 from deep in the Big East. He’s not a prolific shooter, but he is a very good one. Pray is 6’11” and has the kind of stat line a project big man often does. He’s averaging 3.8/1.8/0.8 and has good defensive numbers, but he also fouls like he has an NIL deal with the concept of fouling. He’s weirdly absent on the defensive glass, though he does hit the offensive boards well. He’s a very good shooter, posting a shooting line of .509/.538/.706, albeit in low volume.
Three Questions
-Where does hope even come from? I’m not gonna stand here and sneeze on your neck and tell you it’s drizzling; Xavier is distinctly the underdog in this one. There have been points in this season where three-point shooting, ball security, and even a little defense have been Xavier’s keys to unlocking tough matchups. In the recent skid, however, there haven’t been many silver linings in the dark cloud of losing 4 out of 5 with the lone win coming over DePaul. I still believe the future of the program is very bright under Richard Pitino; that doesn’t mean very much of that light is illuminating the current matchup.
-How will the whistle go? Xavier was able to foul Ejiofor out of the previous matchup, which went a long way to helping them stay only slightly underwater on the glass. It’s no secret that the Muskies have been on the receiving end of some tough treatment by the zebras lately, and visiting MSG probably isn’t going to be the place where that trend reverses. If X can somehow force their way into the Johnnies bench on a regular basis, things might swing closer to making this a game. If Jovan Milicevic and Tre Carroll watch a good portion of the game from the pine due to foul trouble, it’s probably going to be a long night.
– Is everything All Wright? The Valpo transfer posted his highest usage rate in a Xavier uniform last time out, albeit in an absolute beating at the hands of Connecticut. He has been super efficient in and out of conference, against high-level competition, against low-level competition, at home, on the road… et cetera, et cetera. What he hasn’t done is go looking for ways to impose himself on the game. I know waiting for his moment helps him keep himself in situations where he has a high probability of finding a good outcome, but I’d like to see a guy who has an 130 ORtg in 13 KenPom A/B games this year force a little rather than watch the team go on a prolonged drought while he tries to make the good basketball play every time.
Three Keys
-Stay out of the paint. St. John’s is second in the Big East in two-point defense and eleventh in three-point defense. Xavier has been getting shots tossed on a regular basis all season, outside of Tre Carroll and his preternatural talent for scoring around bigger dudes. The Muskies are hitting a solid 35.4% from deep on the conference season. Bad matchups can be leveraged with a blinding shooting performance from deep, and it’s not like Xavier is living at the line when they drive anyway. Might as well chuck ’em from the cheap seats.
-Gang rebound. St. John’s starting five features three dudes in the top 15 in the league in offensive rebounding, and Ruben Pray comes off the bench to slot in with a rate that would be in the top 10 if he had enough minutes to qualify. If you leave rebounding to your bigs against their bigs, you’ll lose every time. It has to be a five-man effort to kill possessions on the defensive glass for Xavier or else they’ll be watching second-chance points pile up and the game slip away.
-Hit the lucky button. Sorry readers, but sometimes hope is your only strategy. Maybe Bryce Hopkins catches a cramp and has to sit for 30 minutes. Maybe Pape N’Diaye matches his 5-9 from deep in Big East play in one night at the Garden. Maybe the bounces and breaks go Xavier’s way for once and the Muskies can drag it across the line. The Muskies have shown they won’t quit on games, but sometimes your best against the opponent’s best isn’t enough. If Xavier can put together a performance and get a little bit of help where they haven’t so far this year, they can come away with the season’s signature win.
Category: General Sports
