Why Francesco Bagnaia seems closer to leaving Ducati than staying

Despite the calm Francesco Bagnaia has projected in recent days regarding his chances of renewing his MotoGP contract with Ducati, the signals coming from the upper echelons of the Bologna-based manufacturer suggest that the Italian may be closer to changing teams in MotoGP than to continuing in red.

At such a pivotal moment as this one, with the rider market in full swing, information tends to reach the outside world with a significant delay – exactly as the main parties involved, teams and riders alike, intend. The most recent example of this ‘delay’ became apparent over the past couple of days at Ducati’s launch event in Madonna di Campiglio, where Bagnaia was one of the central figures.

The composure shown by the two-time MotoGP champion when asked about the possibility of extending his current deal, which expires at the end of this season, does not entirely tally with the statements made by Ducati’s senior management. From company CEO Claudio Domenicali to team manager Davide Tardozzi, all of them underlined the continuation of Marc Marquez as the top priority.

“Renewing Marc is our priority, just as it was with Pecco when he became world champion. It’s a complex contract and there are many things to take into account. But we’re happy with him and he’s happy with us, so we’ll find a solution because we’re in a good position,” said Domenicali.

“Once we know whether Marc decides to continue or not, then we’ll think about the second rider. What’s clear is that if Marc decides to leave, then our priority will be to renew Pecco,” added Tardozzi.

Despite the caution shown by both, Motorsport.com understands that the extension of the current champion’s contract can almost be taken for granted, in much the same way that the signals surrounding Bagnaia point to the rider from Turin being further from extending his current deal than from seeking a way out. And this is not only because of ambiguous statements such as those from Domenicali and Tardozzi.

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Ducati’s firm official stance regarding Marquez as the priority carries further implications that work against #63, beyond the purely emotional aspect – not least the financial one.

When the Catalan first joined the factory team for 2025, he did so from a far weaker position than he holds today, which led him to accept, with virtually no negotiation, the terms and figures put on the table. The situation is now completely different, after he dominated last season and proved that he remains the benchmark on the grid.

Marquez has strengthened his hand and has used that leverage in talks with Ducati, a manufacturer that does not have the same financial muscle as Yamaha or Honda. The one who will suffer as a result will be the next team-mate of #93, who will be forced to accept whatever is offered. Considering that Bagnaia signed his current deal as world champion, it is not hard to imagine that he would be unwilling to accept a deterioration in his conditions of the kind now being assumed – even if Ducati were still counting on him in the medium term, something that is far from clear.

Bagnaia’s collapse over the course of last season created tension within Ducati Corse that was extremely difficult to disguise. The rider repeatedly questioned the ability of the engineers, whom he felt were unable to explain the lack of feeling he experienced from the front end of his Desmosedici GP25. That unresolved friction carried through to the end of the year, before both sides headed into the off-season to recharge ahead of what was to come – not only on track, but also in the offices, ahead of the most significant and fast-moving rider market in recent memory, one expected to involve plenty of movement.

“I’m relaxed about my renewal. I just want to start the season well and focus on that. There are many riders whose contracts are ending, and it will be important to stay focused on the championship,” Bagnaia said on Monday when asked about where he might be in 2027.

Nobody should believe that the Italian is relying on convincing Ducati during the opening races of the season. Several agents consulted by Motorsport.com agree that by early March, when the championship begins in Thailand, it is highly likely that all factory teams will already have their line-ups in place for the 2027 and 2028 seasons – Ducati included.

If we accept that premise, it is easy to conclude that Domenicali, Gigi Dall’Igna and company have already made a decision. And this is where the words spoken last week by Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola resonate strongly. Rivola all but took it for granted that Marquez’s garage neighbour would be Pedro Acosta – comments that did not go down well with Dall’Igna.

“What reached me was that Rivola talked more about Ducati than about Aprilia,” he said.

Taking all of the above into account, it seems clear that the dilemma for Ducati is whether to renew Bagnaia or to secure Acosta, who would be willing to accept whatever was put in front of him in order to ride one of the red bikes – a gamble similar in nature to the one Marquez made a couple of years ago.

Signing the rider from Murcia would guarantee Ducati a top-level successor for the time when the Cervera native eventually moves on. What would be more questionable, however, is having already made that decision and leaving Bagnaia – the most successful rider in the manufacturer’s history in terms of results – without the chance to prove that his 2025 campaign was nothing more than an anomaly.

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