MLB Notebook: Explaining my Hall of Fame ballot; the struggle to annually maintain a top minor league system

Ordinarily, the arrival of the annual Baseball Hall of Fame ballot involves careful examination of the newcomers and their qualifications.

Most years, there are a handful of players at least worthy of serious consideration for induction. Some may be borderline candidates, some may be no-doubt first-time inductees.

Not this year.

While taking nothing away from the accomplishments of the first-time names on this year’s ballot — clichéd though it may be, it’s indeed an honor to just make the ballot — none, in my mind came close to being considered.

Put it this way: the two best players new to the ball this time around were probably Ryan Braun and Cole Hamels. Each had fine careers. In one five-year span, Braun won an MVP and finished in the Top 3 in MVP voting two other times. Hamels, meanwhile, won 163 games in his career and had two Top 5 Cy Young Award finishes.

Both very, very good players. But in my mind, not even close to being worthy of induction in Cooperstown.

The others? Shin-Soo Choo, Edwin Encarnacion, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, Nick Markakis, Daniel Murphy, Hunter Pence and Rick Porcello.

Good players, all. But no immortals here.

So, then, it was back to the returning players. Both Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, though unquestionably deserving based solely on their numbers, were eliminated because of their blatant disregard for rules expressly forbidding PED use — multiple times, in fact.

As I’ve noted all along, if neither Ramirez nor Rodriguez cared enough, why should I?

Among other returning players, I quickly eliminated Torrii Hunter (not dominant enough), Francisco Rodriguez (I hold closers to a particularly high standard and Rodriguez wasn’t in the same class as a handful of closers already in), Mark Buehrle (largely a compiler), Omar Vizquel (brilliant defensively, but very average offensively), Bobby Abreu (averaged just 19 homers per 162 games as a corner outfielder), Jimmy Rollins (career OPS+ of 95, meaning he was five percent below average offensively), David Wright (injuries limited him to about 10 full seasons and he lacked the dominance to overcome the lack of games played) and Andy Pettitte (his 3.85 ERA would be on the highest figures for an elected pitcher).

That leaves a handful of players with whom I really wrestled and to whom I gave strong consideration.

Felix Hernandez was unquestionably one of the game’s best pitchers for a period. In one seven-year stretch, he received Cy Young votes six times, winning once and finishing twice on two other occasions. But in the four years before that run and the five that followed it, Hernandez was pretty ordinary and I just didn’t think seven brilliant years constituted enough.

Infielders Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia have similar cases. Both were second basemen, the heartbeat of their respective teams and intensely competitive. And accomplished: Pedroia was an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, a four-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner; Utley was a six-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner.

But in each case, both had their careers severely limited by injuries. In Utley’s case, he played more than 125 games just four times in his last 10 seasons. With Pedroia, he cracked the 100-game plateau just twice in his final five years.

Both had periods of greatness. But to me, they weren’t great long enough, though it should be noted that was beyond their control.

There’s a movement afoot among voters to reward those who have great peaks during their careers, even if that didn’t result in players reaching previous statistical benchmarks. And I’m fully aware that we will likely never have another pitcher win 200 games again, much less 300. The same goes for players collecting 3,000 hits.

Perhaps in time, I’ll evolve into thinking that shorter periods of dominance should be recognized with induction. For now, however, I’m holding firm in my belief that longevity counts for something.

That leaves the two players for whom I again did proudly vote: Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones.

Beltran fell just shy last time, mentioned on 70.3 percent of ballots when 75 percent is required. He felt 19 vote shy. It’s widely expected he’ll clear that bar this time around.

Beltran was an outstanding defender (three Gold Gloves) and offensive performer (two-time Silver Slugger, 435 homers to go with 312 stolen bases). He was one of the best switch-hitters ever and posted a staggering 1.021 OPS in 65 postseason games.

He was also, of course, one of the masterminds of the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal. But MLB granted immunity for the players who participated and if they’re not willing to impose disciplinary measures, then neither am I.

Finally, there’s Andruw Jones, whom I’ve championed since his first year on the ballot when he attracted just 7.3 percent of the votes and watched his support grow to the point that he was at 66.2 percent last year, missing out by just 35 votes. He may not have the same odds as Beltran for getting in this time, but he has another year remaining. Moreover, the quality of the newcomers may lead some to re-evaluate Jones.

Jones is the best defensive center fielder of the post-expansion (1960-) era, and there’s little to dispute that characterization.

It’s true that Jones’s career dropped off the table in his 30s. But in 10 years from age 21 to 30, he won Gold Gloves each season. Only three outfielders in history have had seven or more seasons in which they hit both 30 homers and won a Gold Glove: Willie Mays (eight such seasons), Barry Bonds (seven) and Jones.

That kind of puts things into perspective.

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Teams understandably find it difficult to maintain elite player development system season after season.

Top prospects graduate to the big leagues, leaving gaping holes in the system. Player development isn’t always linear, so it’s tough to presume that year after year, an organization is going to replicate its past success.

These things are cyclical. One year, a team might have a handful of players ranked among the Top 100 prospects in the industry, but after those players reach their intended goal of playing in the big leagues, it’s not a given that another five or so players in the same system are going to replace them on the various rankings that pop up.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the exception to this rule. While there’s a great deal of subjectivity and inexact science to the rankings, the Dodgers have been a Top 3 system for several years running.

The Dodgers take a lot of grief for the size of their major league payroll, with charges that they’re “ruining” the sport with their profligate spending and record-setting contracts. But that’s not the only reason the Dodgers are the dominant team of this decade: it’s also their ability to annually produce contributors to the major league roster, or, at the very least, provide tradable chips to acquire more established talent.

The Red Sox would very much like to copy the Dodgers in that regard. A year ago, the Sox were ranked No. 1 in the game by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. By mid-season, after the trade deadline that saw them deplete their depth with some trades, they fell to No. 5.

This month, Baseball America has them at No. 1 while The Athletic, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic have yet to update their own rankings.

The Sox have lost three Top 20 prospects: Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell have used up their rookie eligibility from last year and thus are no longer considered prospects.

After a period in which the Sox regularly churned out top position player prospects (Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Triston Casas, etc.), the emphasis has now shifted to pitching.

“I think there’s ebbs and flows to the acquisitions and the needs of an organization,” said senior director of player development Brian Abraham, “and as we’ve seen this offseason, some of our pitching depth (Richard Fitts, Hunter Dobbins, Brandon Clarke) has allowed us to acquire certain players (Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras), whereas in the past, we were unable to do that.

“So we’re always looking to replenish that talent level, whether that’s internally with players getting better, or through the draft and international signings — that type of thing. I think we still have a lot of depth and I think we have a lot of guys who can take significant steps this year. We feel like they have some high ceilings.

This past week, Baseball America ranked Payton Tolle as the No. 2 lefthanded pitching prospect in the game, with Connelly Early ranked seventh. MLB Pipeline also had Tolle second in this category and Early eighth. And that doesn’t begin to take into account David Sandlin, Jake Bennett and last year’s No. 1 pick, Kyson Witherspoon.

Abraham isn’t ready or willing to accept an inevitable downturn now the system has produced a handful of major leaguers in the last year-plus.

“Our job is to raise the floor and provide guys with opportunities to get better and improve,” he said. “Certainly, the success that we’ve had is in the big leagues now, so it’s our job to push guys from the lower levels up so they can be the next wave of players so that when we need them, they’ll be available.

“I think (maintaining an elite system year after year) is probably one of the hardest things to do in all of baseball. I’m sure every organization feels the same. It starts with hiring the right staff, having the right processes in place, and the right systems in place, having an organizational philosophy that we believe in. I feel like we’re in a good place in that area.

“And then it’s about giving the players a chance to get better with the goals we provide to them, and making sure they have the coaches, the goals, the resources, the tools, to improve their craft. Anytime you need to replenish the system, it doesn’t happen overnight. It takes time. Sometimes there’s good years, sometimes there’s bad years. But as long as we’re aligned and have a consistent idea of what our goals are to have success, I think we’re moving in the right direction.”

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