Can Kentucky football bounce back in 2025? 5 make-or-break games for Mark Stoops, Wildcats

LEXINGTON — What a difference 12 months makes.

At this time last year, Kentucky football and Mark Stoops — the dean of SEC coaches, entering his 13th season with the Wildcats — were hoping they could find their way into the periphery of the College Football Playoff mix, armed with a former five-star quarterback (Brock Vandagriff), two of the best receivers in the SEC (Barion Brown and Dane Key) and a defense highlighted by a player touted to be a potential first-round draft pick (Deone Walker).

Well ... none of that went according to plan.

Vandagriff struggled. So did the receiving corps (aside from Key). And Walker didn't play up to expectations.

It should come as no surprise given all that, UK had its worst season since Stoops' debut in 2013. Kentucky finished the 2024 campaign 4-8 overall and 1-7 in conference play. That snapped a program-record bowl streak (eight years), a run that ranked among the best in the country — and third in the league behind national superpowers Georgia and Alabama.

There is no CFP talk surrounding the Wildcats entering this season.

Could it happen? Sure, if UK bucks outsiders' prognostications; it likely will be picked near the bottom (if not the basement itself) in the 16-team SEC. But if one sticks to reasonable expectations, returning to the bowl season is a more sensible objective for Stoops and Co.

What is the most realistic path to a bowl for Kentucky this fall?

Use the team's 2025 schedule as a guide.

Whether they're played at home, on the road or the surface of the moon, games against Georgia, Texas and Tennessee always are going to be tough for UK. (Mark those down as losses this season.) Conversely, home contests against a pair of overmatched foes (Eastern Michigan and Tennessee Tech) will be comfortable wins for the Wildcats. Ole Miss is up for revenge after UK's upset win last season in Oxford, Mississippi, which likely was the result that kept the Rebels from earning a CFP bid; give the nod to the visitors in that Sept. 6 matchup at Kroger Field. And after three straight victories over Florida between 2021 and 2023 — Kentucky's first such streak in the series since a four-game run from 1948 through 1951 — the Gators chomped down on the Wildcats last season, rolling to a 48-20 victory at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. When Florida comes to town Nov. 8, that'll be another difficult test for Kentucky; we'll jot it down as another setback in Lexington for the hosts.

Keeping those things top of mind, here are Kentucky's five most crucial games in 2025, ranked in order of importance:

1. Toledo (Aug. 30)

Holy Toledo!

Some might think it's absurd Kentucky's most important game of the season is its first. But, considering how perilous UK's slate is, it cannot afford to drop a game before it even starts conference play. And a loss in the opener also would kick off the season on an alarming note. A portion of the fan base already wants the program to move on from Stoops.

The supporters he has left likely would abandon ship if a MAC foe waltzes into Lexington, takes its guaranteed check and leaves with a victory to boot.

Don't discount the possibility.

Year in and year out, the Rockets are among the best non-power-conference clubs in the nation. Toledo has won eight or more games each of the last three seasons; the last time it finished under .500 was 2009.

If the Wildcats need any reminder how dangerous the Rockets are, all Stoops and his staff need to do is look to last season. Toledo went into Starkville, Mississippi, and manhandled Mississippi State for four quarters in a 41-17 win.

2. at Louisville (Nov. 29)

We go from the regular-season opener to the regular-season finale.

U of L won in convincing fashion last year, cruising to a 27-point victory in Lexington. And the Cardinals have kept winning during the offseason. They won multiple head-to-head recruiting battles with the Wildcats for 2026 prospects. Most notably, they finally wrested away Vince Marrow from Stoops' side; part of the program since Stoops' arrival, Marrow had been courted numerous times over the years by other schools. But Jeff Brohm's pitch won over Marrow, leading the latter to switch sides in the Governor's Cup rivalry.

Last season's setback ended UK's five-game on-field win streak in the rivalry. (Kentucky vacated its 10 wins from the 2021 campaign due to NCAA violations; that included a 52-21 pasting of U of L.) The Wildcats haven't dropped back-to-back games in the Governor's Cup since the Cards won five straight from 2011 through 2015.

Entering the fall, Louisville has regained the momentum in the Bluegrass State's marquee rivalry. Another on-field win over UK only would cement that.

Aside from the meaning both fan bases ascribe to the result of this game, it could take on even greater significance for Kentucky in 2025: A win might be the difference between a bowl berth and a second straight sub-.500 season.

3. at Vanderbilt (Nov. 22)

The good news for Kentucky: It's won the past four times it's faced Vanderbilt in Nashville.

The bad news for Kentucky: The Commodores have won two of the last three years.

Perhaps even worse news for Kentucky: Vandy likely will be favored this fall. The biggest reason oddsmakers likely will lean that way is because of the Commodores' edge at quarterback: Diego Pavia was a revelation for Vanderbilt last season after transferring in from New Mexico State. And he'll forever be remembered for spurring the squad to an upset of then-No. 1 Alabama.

Put simply, this is a measuring-stick game for Kentucky.

Lose to the Commodores for the third time in four seasons — something that hasn't happened in nearly a decade (2012 through 2015) — and a conclusion can be drawn. One hard for UK fans to stomach.

Vanderbilt will have surpassed Kentucky in the league's perceived hierarchy, no longer the most forlorn program in the rough-and-tumble SEC.

4. at South Carolina (Sept. 27)

Anyone who follows the sport closely is aware of the history between Stoops and South Carolina coach Shane Beamer. Of their mutual animosity — whether it's real or blown out of proportion by outsiders.

What isn't unclear: Beamer and the Gamecocks have changed the tenor of this series.

Stoops won six of his first eight games versus USC. But he's just 1-3 against Beamer, with the Gamecocks winning the past three matchups. UK hasn't lost four in a row to South Carolina since the Gamecocks ripped off a 10-game win streak in the series from 2000 through 2009.

Yet there's another reason this tilt looms large for Kentucky this fall: the date.

It's Kentucky's second SEC game (Ole Miss is the first). The week after UK heads to Columbia, South Carolina, it hits the road again, this time versus Georgia. Then, Texas (Oct. 18) and Tennessee (Oct. 25).

If the Wildcats can't vanquish the Gamecocks, there's a distinct probability Kentucky enters November winless (0-5) in the league standings.

5. at Auburn (Nov. 1)

Auburn has signed consecutive top-10 high school recruiting classes (2024 and 2025), per the 247Sports Composite. The Tigers hadn't accomplished that feat since a five-year run (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) during Gus Malzahn's tenure. AU also found success in the transfer portal this offseason, landing one of the country's best classes (No. 8 in 247Sports' Composite rankings), highlighted by a trio of highly regarded offensive additions (receivers Eric Singleton Jr. and Horatio Fields and lineman Xavier Chaplin) to go along with former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold.

The Tigers also had made inroads with 2026 prospects, at one point boasting one of the top hauls in the nation. But the decommitment of linebacker JaMichael Garrett and the flips of linebacker Shadarius Toodle (to Georgia) and wide receiver Devin Carter (to Florida State) have Auburn's class plummeting in the national rankings. As of July 14, it's 78th nationally — the worst in the SEC.

Yet all the talk of recruiting — of "wins" and "losses" on the trail — won't be the determining factor in Auburn coach Hugh Freeze's job security.

Actual wins and losses, on the field, are what matter.

And through two seasons, Freeze hasn't done enough of the former. He's yet to post a winning record, going 5-7 in 2024 and 6-7 in 2023. The Tigers haven't had a coach post three straight sub-.500 seasons since Earl Brown (1-8-1 in 1948, 2-4-3 in 1949 and 0-10 in 1950).

Brown didn't get a fourth season.

Freeze likely won't, either, if he can't end this fall with more victories than defeats.

With all the pressure he'll be under, this game potentially represents an opportunity for UK to steal a win in the series. Those have been hard to come by for the Wildcats, after all: The Tigers have won 19 of the past 20 meetings, with a 28-6-1 advantage all time.

Kentucky can take some solace in the fact its lone win over Auburn in the last 20 matchups took place at Jordan-Hare Stadium. In 2009, Kentucky picked up a 21-14 victory on the road.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky football: 5 key games for Mark Stoops on 2025 schedule