ESPN Analyst Bill Connelly Issues Bold Warning to Clemson

ESPN Analyst Bill Connelly Issues Bold Warning to Clemson originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

CLEMSON, SC – As college football media days kick off across the nation, one prominent voice is throwing a wet blanket on some of the preseason hype surrounding the Clemson Tigers. ESPN's college football analyst Bill Connelly, a figure who has occasionally drawn the ire of the Clemson faithful, is offering a candid, if skeptical, take on the Tigers' national championship aspirations, admitting, "There's a chance they prove this hater wrong."

While Connelly unequivocally names Clemson as the clear favorite to win the ACC and, by extension, a sure bet for a College Football Playoff return, his confidence wanes when it comes to envisioning them winning multiple games once there.

In his comprehensive ACC preview, Connelly pulled no punches, dissecting the Tigers' underlying metrics from 2024 that fuel his skepticism:

• DEFENSIVE RED FLAGS: "With all of those playmakers, Clemson's defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012," Connelly wrote. He pointed out the "mediocre" run defense even with Peter Woods' efforts and a pass defense that was "merely good, not great."
• OFFENSIVE EXPLOSIVENESS CONCERNS: Despite some "lovely big runs" from Phil Mafah and Jay Haynes, Connelly noted the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, with Cade Klubnik averaging just 11.7 yards per completion. He fears that "preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas."
• TURNOVER LUCK: Connelly also highlighted that "Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there's no way we're talking about a top-five team here."

However, Connelly, known for his data-driven analysis, left the door open for the Tigers to prove him wrong. "I'm excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we'll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s," he admitted. He views this "wonderfully experienced team" as the perfect proving ground for Dabo Swinney's approach. "If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it's going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC."

Connelly's advanced SP+ model currently pegs Clemson at No. 8 nationally with a projected 10 regular-season wins, giving them a commanding 26.8% chance to win the ACC – far ahead of Miami (17.9%), SMU (10%), and Louisville (8.7%). Furthermore, Clemson leads the nation in returning production, bringing back a remarkable 85% on offense and 76% on defense, compared to a national average of just 53%.

The stage is set for Clemson. Can they defy Connelly's statistical skepticism, overcome their past shortcomings, and prove that this "hater" – and perhaps others – underestimated their true national championship potential in 2025? The season promises to be a fascinating test of Dabo Swinney's program.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 7, 2025, where it first appeared.