What does Xavier have to do to win a close game?

Last night was yet another chapter this season of this Xavier team fighting hard, never giving up, and simply not getting the breaks they need to win a game. This season Xavier is 6-5 in games decided by two possessions or less. That number is somewhat surprising, because it feels like the Musketeers keep dropping close ones. Remember way back when, though, in November and Xavier picked up close wins over Marist and Le Moyne.

Since then, it has gotten choppy. Xavier has gotten blown out multiple times, but there’s a sense in which that isn’t as hard to watch. It’s not fun by any means, but at least the heart rate can level out and you can cast your mind elsewhere. Losing the close ones really stings, and X has done that too much.

It started against Georgia, where Xavier simply didn’t pay defense or make layups. The next was Marquette, when they simply forgot to rebound when it mattered. The Creighton loss was on the officials. Against St. John’s they took a huge lead and then folded under pressure. You probably remember last night.

Xavier needs a miracle to make the NCAA tournament. That miracle starts with not drawing UConn in the Big East Tournament. It ends with figuring out how to close out close games. (That sentence is fun in English.)

Last night Xavier got sloppy late. That’s not the first time that has happened. In the last game against SJU, Tre Carroll lost his footing in a huge spot and was forced to toss up a prayer that slammed off the backboard. Yes, that was the January 24th game. Last night, Tre did the same thing, then turned the ball over twice in overtime. Carroll has been a warrior all season and has won Xavier games by himself at times. He does tend to fatigue late in games, and when he does, he starts to cough the ball up.

Xavier has generally not turned the ball over a lot, but in late game situations their callow nature starts to show up. Malik Messina-Moore is excellent with the ball and is used to being the main option late in games. He fouled out last night. Jovan Milicevic is excellent with the ball and fearless late in games. He fouled out last night. Isaiah Walker has come on of late and was quietly excellent last night. He has the lowest turnover rate on the team. He fouled out last night. There is an argument that Filip Borovicanin should have had the ball in his hands, but Bryce Hopkins was giving him fits. Xavier simply had to go to Carroll, and Carroll has late turnover issues.

The other thing that makes winning close games difficult is a failure to make free throws. Against Georgia, they were 12-19. Against Marquette it was 10-14. Last night they were a miserable 9-17. On the year they are shooting 70% from the line. That’s good for 260th in the nation. Mid pack is somewhere around 72%. Shoot that in any above the games and they win.

Finally, Xavier needs to find someone to be the man down the stretch. Carroll has ball retention issues and Milicevic has usually fouled out by that point. Borovicanin has shown he can be that guy, but he didn’t get the ball late. Triple M has in the past, but he vanished for a large part of this season. All Wright is a contender for the role, but he is only now starting to show some real aggression to his game. For lack of a better term, Xavier doesn’t have a killer right now.

If you flip the Georgia, Marquette, at Creighton, and St. John’s games, all of which Xavier led in the last minute, the Musketeers would be the first team out on Teamcast. That’s even including Xavier’s blowout losses. X hasn’t gotten it done in close games through a combination of turnovers, poor free throw shooting, and no one making the big play. When March comes, that will be what has doomed them.