Bautista Vs. Oliveira Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight sluggers Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveirawill clash TONIGHT (Sat., Feb. 7, 2026) inside Meta APEX for UFC Vegas 113.

Throughout Bautista’s eight-fight win streak that saw him rise into contention, there was a bit of doubt surrounding the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. His overall level of competition wasn’t that high, the win over Jose Aldo was a bit shaky, and some early losses further raised questions. Surprisingly, it was his losing effort against Umar Nurmagomedov — in which Bautista scrambled nonstop with the Russian ace and landed some big shots — that really convinced the fighting community of Bautista’s talent.

He seeks to rebound from that defeat here.

On the flip side is a very strange fighter. Oliveira is a man in the mold of Jiri Prochazka or Dricus du Plessis in that he’s not a textbook fighter, but he is an overwhelming physical talent with some craft and serious knockout power. Just 4-0 inside the Octagon, Oliveira has made an immediate impact and could climb into the Top 10 with another victory.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Bautista vs. Oliveira Betting Odds

• Mario Bautista victory: -158
• Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
• Mario Bautista via submission: +380
• Mario Bautista via decision: -250
• Vinicius Oliveira victory: +285
• Vinicius Oliveira via TKO/KO/DQ: +260
• Vinicius Oliveira via submission: +1600
• Vinicius Oliveira via decision: +550
• Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

How Bautista Wins

Bautista is a very tactical fighter who thrives on the transitions between striking and wrestling. There are fights where he’s danced along the outside and shown off his footwork, and there are clean victories in which he’s relentlessly pressured his foes with pressure and takedowns.

In either case, he maintains a high work rate.

There are massive holes in Oliveira’s game, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy or safe to capitalize on them. The Brazilian swings almost comically wide at times, and Bautista has a lovely straight right hand. If he weaves that punch inside the swing of “Lokdog,” we could be looking at a very quick knockout win. The problem, of course, is that if Bautista’s timing is a little off, then Oliveira crashes into him with five absurdly hard swings.

Still, I don’t think Bautista should wrestle here. Oliveira is too strong for that and trying will fatigue Bautista, leaving him more vulnerable to the chaotic swings. Instead, Bautista has to keep his guard high, move his feet, and build an understanding of his timing. While doing so, he should be looking to pop Oliveira with straight punches, attack his wide stance with calf kicks, and continual turn him with pivots and direction changes.

The more success he finds, the wider and more telegraphed Oliveira’s swings become.

How Oliveira Wins

I just wrote some negative things about “Lokdog,” but allow me to make it clear that I love watching him fight and believe him to be excellent in his own way. He’s an absolute tank at 135 pounds and fights with no concern about the punches coming back at him, which is great fun, but there’s also some real trickery to how he punches off his kicks and sets up those wide haymakers.

Between the size, stance and power, there are comparisons to be made to Deiveson Figueiredo. The primary differences include Figueiredo being a much tighter boxer, whereas Oliveira has the more committed kicking attack.

For “Lokdog,” this fight hinges on his ability to make Bautista uncomfortable. In a technical point-scoring match, Oliveira is in for a rough time, and Bautista has the composure to follow a gameplan in the face of serious firepower. If Oliveira can unsettle him a bit, however, then his whole game begins to flow. A big land upstairs or even a few powerful kick connections early will help get Oliveira into the driver’s seat, and turn Bautista toward bad ideas like trying to wrestle from his back foot.

Bautista vs. Oliveira Prediction

There is a real case here that Bautista makes Oliveira look like an amateur. If he keeps his feet moving and is able to deter Bautista from kicking via checks and hard blocks, he’ll box the ears off him. When Bautista is landing well, he sets up his takedowns smoothly, and suddenly the situation is very bad for Oliveira.

I do believe “Lokdog” will find his kicks, however. The great benefit of Oliveira’s absurd swinging is not just power, it’s that his opponent must notice and respect that threat. If Bautista tries to check a kick and is instead caught by a huge whipping right, that’s an absolute disaster. Because Bautista will be moving away from the power shots of “Lokdog,” those kicks open up and do real damage.

Getting kicked hard and repeatedly by Oliveira puts Bautista in a bad position. He’ll either have to bite down and trade more often or commit to the wrestling. The former is dangerous, and the latter hasn’t worked for anybody else … yet.

Prediction: Oliveira via decision

To checkout UFC Vegas 113’s final fight card and bout order click here.