On Wednesday night, Gonzaga did this …

As a result, the Bulldogs slipped down to the 3 line, with Houston replacing them as a 2. While I did shuffle things around a bit after analyzing each team’s results-based and predictive metrics a bit more closely, this was the only seed line change among the top 16 when compared to Tuesday. That’s not likely to remain the case in four days’ time, as the majority of the teams on the top four seed lines face significant tests this weekend—particularly on an extremely busy Saturday. More on that in the viewing guide, which follows today’s full bracket and rundown.

NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.

(1) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)

San Diego (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) LIU (NEC)

▲(8) Utah State (MW)
▲(9) USC

Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)

▲(5) North Carolina
(12) Belmont (MVC)

(4) Vanderbilt
▲(13) ETSU (SoCon)

Portland (Thurs./Sat.)

▼(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)

▼(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)

Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)

(7) Texas A&M (SEC)
(10) UCLA

(2) Nebraska
(15) Harvard (Ivy)

(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)

Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)

(1) UConn (Big East)
(16) Merrimack (MAAC)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)

▲(8) NC State
▲(9) Wisconsin

San Diego (Fri./Sun.)

(5) Saint Louis (A 10)
(12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

(4) Texas Tech
(13) Winthrop (Big South)

Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)

(6) Louisville
★/▼(11) Santa Clara/New Mexico

(3) Purdue
▼(14) Troy (Sun Belt)

Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)

(7) Auburn
▼(10) Saint Mary’s

▲(2) Houston
(15) UT Martin (OVC)

(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)

Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)

(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) UMBC (AE)/North Carolina Central (MEAC)

(8) Villanova
▼(9) SMU

Portland (Thurs./Sat.)

(5) Tennessee
(12) Liberty (CUSA)

(4) Virginia
★(13) Cal Baptist (WAC)

Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)

(6) Arkansas
★/★(11) San Diego State/Miami (Fla.)

(3) Michigan State
(14) Wright State (Horizon)

St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)

▲(7) Clemson
▲(10) Texas

(2) Iowa State
(15) Austin Peay (ASUN)

(3) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)

Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)

(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Navy (Patriot)

(8) Kentucky
(9) Iowa

Tampa (Fri./Sun.)

(5) Alabama
(12) Tulsa (AC)

(4) Kansas
(13) UC Irvine (Big West)

Tampa (Fri./Sun.)

(6) St. John’s
(11) Indiana

(3) Florida
(14) Portland State (Big Sky)

St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)

(7) UCF
▼(10) Georgia

(2) Illinois
★(15) Charleston (CAA)

Rundown

Last Four Byes: Georgia, UCLA, Texas, Indiana
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, New Mexico, San Diego State, Miami (Fla.)
First Four OUT: California, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, TCU, VCU

ARRIVALS (5): Cal Baptist (WAC), Charleston (CAA), Miami (Fla.), San Diego State, Santa Clara

DEPARTURES: Ohio State, TCU, UNCW (CAA), Utah Valley (WAC), Virginia Tech

One of today’s five changes is an enforced one, as WAC co-leader Utah Valley is currently embroiled in an exit fee dispute. Since the Wolverines are currently barred from the WAC Tournament for this reason, co-leader Cal Baptist, who is also headed to the Big West, takes the auto bid.

Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (10): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa, USC, Wisconsin, UCLA, Indiana

SEC (10): Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M (auto bid), Kentucky, Georgia, Texas

ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Clemson, SMU, NC State, Miami (Fla.) (First Four)

Big 12 (7): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF

Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova

MW (3): Utah State (auto bid), New Mexico (First Four), San Diego State (First Four)

WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)

24 one-bid conferences

Santa Clara’s arrival and San Diego State’s return mean there are two more three-bid conferences for the moment. Miami replacing Virginia Tech keeps the ACC at eight bids, even though I’m still not convinced the Hurricanes’ current profile will have enough quality wins for the Committee. But their metrics are all well within at-large range, so they enter for now.

Games to Watch

All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted. Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance.

Friday

UConn at St. John’s, 8 (Fox)
Brown at Yale, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Dayton at VCU, 7 (ESPN2)
Belmont at UIC, 9 (ESPNU)
Murray State at Southern Illinois, 8 (ESPN+ ($))

The biggest game on tonight’s slate is at MSG where the Huskies, 12-0 in the Big East, meet second-place St. John’s. The Huskies have won 18 straight since dropping a 71-67 decision to Arizona back on November 19th, while the Red Storm have won eight on the trot after an inexplicable home loss to Providence on January 3rd. UConn seems to be back on track after blowing out Creighton and Xavier to break out of a six-game stretch which saw that long win streak threatened on five occasions. As usual, the crowd mix at the Garden will go a long way to determining who gets the win.

Saturday

Wisconsin at Indiana, 12 (Fox)
Virginia Tech at NC State, 12 (CW)
Louisville at Wake Forest, 12 (ACCN)
Nebraska at Rutgers, 12 (BTN)
Arkansas at Mississippi State, 12 (ESPN2)
Villanova at Georgetown, 12 (TNT/TruTV)
Missouri at South Carolina, 1 (SECN)
Oregon at Purdue, 1 (CBS)
Syracuse at Virginia, 12 (ESPN)
Temple at East Carolina, 12 (ESPNU)
ETSU at VMI, 12 (ESPN+ ($))

The early Saturday window is highlighted by a pair of bubble showdowns in the Big Ten and ACC, with the Badgers and Hoosiers looking to hang on, and the Hokies heading to Raleigh looking to get back. Closer to the top of the bracket, the Huskers must be wary of the RAC, considering how Michigan State needed OT to beat the Scarlet Knights on January 27th.

Baylor at Iowa State, 2 (ESPN)
SMU at Pitt, 2 (CW)
Mississippi at Texas, 2 (ESPN2)
Utah at Kansas, 2:30 (Fox)
Kansas State at TCU, 2 (TNT/TruTV)
Butler at Marquette, 2 (FS1)
Miami (Fla.) at Boston College, 2 (ACCN)
La Salle at Saint Louis, 3 (FanDuel SN Midwest/ESPN+ ($))
Missouri State at Liberty, 2 (CBSSN)
Longwood at Winthrop, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Omaha at North Dakota State, 2 (Summit League Network ($))
New Hampshire at Vermont, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Niagara at Quinnipiac, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Siena at Saint Peter’s, 2 (ESPN+ ($))

Baylor is the only bubble team that has a chance to improve its stock in the mid-afternoon window, while several others (SMU, Texas, TCU, Miami) face trap games.

Alabama at Auburn, 4 (ESPN2)
Oklahoma State at Arizona, 4 (ESPN)
Oklahoma at Vanderbilt, 3:30 (SECN)
Miami (Ohio) at Marshall, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Grand Canyon at UNLV, 4:30 (Fox)
Saint Joseph’s at George Mason, 4 (MASN/ESPN+ ($))
UT Arlington at Utah Valley, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Incarnate Word at McNeese, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
Harvard at Dartmouth, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
Morehead State at UT Martin, 4 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($))
Central Arkansas at Lipscomb, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
North Alabama at Austin Peay, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
Western Carolina at Wofford, 4 (SC ETV/ESPN+ ($))
Stonehill at LIU, 4 (NEC Front Row)
Binghamton at NJIT, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
American at Navy, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
North Carolina Central at Norfolk State, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($)

While the basketball Iron Bowl is the marquee game in the late afternoon window, keep an eye on Arizona’s home game against Oklahoma State (considering who the Wildcats will meet on Monday night) and Miami (Ohio)‘s attempt to stay undefeated in a late MAC-Sun Belt Challenge matchup against former conference rival Marshall.

Duke at North Carolina, 6:30 (ESPN)
Georgia at LSU, 6 (SECN)
Seton Hall at Creighton, 6 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Gonzaga at Oregon State, 6 (KHQ/ESPN+ ($))
Santa Clara at Washington State, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
Akron at Troy, 6 (ESPN2)
Lamar at Stephen F. Austin, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
Radford at High Point, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Mercer at Samford, 6 (SoCon Nexstar stations/ESPN+ ($))
Purdue Fort Wayne at Wright State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Merrimack at Rider, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Prairie View at Bethune-Cookman, 5:30 (SWAC TV)

Obviously, the early evening window is highlighted by the Tobacco Road showdown that always delivers—a major opportunity for the Tar Heels to jump onto the 4 line with a win. A loss probably wouldn’t drop Duke from the 1 line, but much will depend on what happens in New York on Friday night and East Lansing in the window that follows. There are still more trap games for bubble teams on the slate (Georgia, Seton Hall, Santa Clara), Akron’s trip to Sun Belt leader Troy, and Gonzaga’s attempt to rebound from Wednesday’s loss.

Illinois at Michigan State, 8 (Fox)
Florida at Texas A&M, 8:30 (SECN)
Tennessee at Kentucky, 8:30 (ESPN)
Clemson at California, 8 (ACCN)
Utah State at Wyoming, 8 (CBSSN)
San Diego State at Air Force, 8 (FS1)
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 (ESPNU)
Abilene Christian at Cal Baptist, 8 (ESPN+ ($))

The Fighting Illini are on the cusp of the 1 line, but they’ll need to win in East Lansing to extend their win streak to 13. You can bet the Spartans will be up for this one after Wednesday’s loss to Minnesota. There are also two huge SEC games on tap at 8:30 Eastern. The Gators, who had the midweek window off, travel to College Station, where the outright conference lead is on the line. The Aggies did play on Wednesday, when they dropped a 100-97 decision to the Alabama team that Florida blew out 100-77 last Saturday. Tennessee, meanwhile, heads to Lexington looking to avenge the Wildcats’ 80-78 win back on January 17th.

There are plenty of other at-large-pool-related matchups on offer, as Cal has a great opportunity to potentially jump Miami by beating Clemson. Utah State and San Diego State both face road trips at altitude, while Stanford’s dwindling hopes would shrink further with a home loss to Georgia Tech.

Houston at BYU, 10:30 (ESPN)
Washington at UCLA, 10 (FS1)
Boise State at New Mexico, 10 (CBSSN)
San Francisco at Saint Mary’s, 11:30 (ESPN2)
Fresno State at Nevada, 10 (NSN/MWN)
UC San Diego at Hawai’i, 12 a.m. (Spectrum Sports Hawai’i/ESPN+ ($))
Portland State at Sacramento State, 10 (ESPN+ ($))

After dropping four of five, BYU has slipped down to seed line 6, but a win over Houston would get them back on track. Otherwise, there are even more bubbly matchups in the Big Ten, Mountain West, and WCC.

Sunday

Michigan at Ohio State, 1 (CBS)
Texas Tech at West Virginia, 1 (Fox)
USC at Penn State, 12 (BTN)
Tulsa at South Florida, 12 (ESPNU)

UCF at Cincinnati, 2 (CBSSN)
Northwestern at Iowa, 3 (FS1)
Charlotte at Memphis, 2 (ESPN+ ($))

Both the Buckeyes and Mountaineers can improve their stock and shake up the top of the bracket by defending their home courts on Sunday afternoon. USC, UCF, and Iowa all face beatable opponents, while there are two significant American Conference games set for Tampa and Memphis.

Monday

NC State at Louisville, 7 (ESPN)
Xavier at St. John’s, 6:30 (FS1)
Yale at Howard, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
East Texas A&M at Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Houston Christian at McNeese, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Navy at Bucknell, 6 (CBSSN)
Texas Southern at Bethune-Cookman, 7 (SWAC TV)

The first half of the Big Monday doubleheader sees the Wolfpack visiting the Cardinals in an important matchup for seeding purposes. In the Big East, the Red Storm will look to come close to UConn’s 32-point win over Xavier back on Tuesday.

Arizona at Kansas, 9 (ESPN)
Oregon at Indiana, 8:30 (FS1)
Belmont at Bradley, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Northern Iowa at Murray State, 10 (CBSSN)
UNCW at Charleston, 8 (CBSSN)
Delaware State at North Carolina Central, 8 (ESPN+ ($))

As mentioned above, the Wildcats cannot get caught looking ahead on Saturday, given their trip to the Phog in the second Big Monday matchup. Keep an eye on the Hoosiers’ home game against struggling Oregon and the huge showdown for first place in the CAA.

Check back on Tuesday to see how all of these matchups shook up the field of 68.