In the 2025 offseason, the major item on the to-do list in the Twin Cities was the quarterback decision. The […]
In the 2025 offseason, the major item on the to-do list in the Twin Cities was the quarterback decision. The Vikings had to make a choice between 2024 Pro Bowler Sam Darnold and the 10th overall pick of the 2024 Draft, J.J. McCarthy.
Nearly 11 months later, the decision to move forward with McCarthy as the team’s skipper has gone up in flames, resulting in a 9-8 record in his first year as the starter and subpar play for most of the campaign. Sam Darnold leading the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl just pours gasoline on the fire that has been the play of the Vikings’ QB room.
But there’s one thing everyone should remember: That decision was not made for the immediate future in 2025, but for years to come. The Vikings envisioned McCarthy as their new franchise quarterback for a decade.
Sure, after one season, that looks like a wrong evaluation. In his first year as the starter, McCarthy started ten games, throwing for 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 12 picks. He added another 149 yards and four scores on the ground.
Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 300 plays, McCarthy ranked 33rd in EPA/Play. PFF listed him 33rd of 38 eligible quarterbacks with a grade of 61.8, behind players such as Spencer Rattler and Justin Fields.
Regardless, McCarthy turned 23 a couple of weeks ago, and there’s still the chance he can develop. What sounds like coping at first becomes more reasonable when looking at quarterback history around the league. They need reps after coming into the league and McCarthy simply hasn’t had enough of those to confirm the good or the bad he displayed in his sophomore campaign.
History suggests patience is often required. Josh Allen completed barely 52% of his passes as a rookie. Trevor Lawrence threw more interceptions than touchdowns in Year 1. Even Darnold, now playing his best football, needed six seasons before finding stability. That’s not to say that Minnesota’s young captain will turn into any of those guys — that might even be a long shot at this point — but the fact that there is precedent is noteworthy.
Furthermore, McCarthy was clearly trending up after returning from a concussion suffered against the Green Bay Packers. In his first six games, McCarthy passed for six touchdowns and ten picks, completing 54.1% of his passes with an average yards per attempt of 5.8. In his last four contests, he completed 64.3% of his passes for five touchdowns and two picks, with a strong average of 8.4 yards per attempt.
With a PFF grade of 52.6, McCarthy ranked 39th of 42 QBs with at least 70 dropbacks in the first 12 weeks of the season. From Week 13 on, he is listed 10th of 32 passers with at least 70 dropbacks with an excellent grade of 79.1.
Granted, the sample size is way too small to be sure about a sustainable development, but we asked for flashes in his first six starts, and he showed that in his last four.
For now, the Vikings look like fools, and unless they pull off a stunning trade for Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow, there’s nothing that will change that until McCarthy considerably improves moving forward.
Fortunately, that is still possible. McCarthy will get more practice and game reps throughout the summer and the upcoming season. Kevin O’Connell might adjust his scheme a little, while better play from the offensive line and the receivers could make his life a little easier.
The Vikings didn’t make a reckless decision last spring — they made a calculated one. It just hasn’t paid off yet and maybe it never will. Yet, quarterback development rarely follows a straight line, and one uneven season doesn’t close the book on a 23-year-old passer.
If McCarthy takes a step forward in Year 3 and beyond and looks like the franchise quarterback he was hired to be, the move will look patient and forward-thinking. If he doesn’t, it will go down as one of the franchise’s biggest misfires. That’s the gamble every team makes when betting on youth over certainty.
But the possibility of improvement down the line should not be entirely forgotten.
Editor’s Note: Information from PFF, Over The Cap, and Sports Reference helped with this article.
Category: General Sports
