Michigan vs MSU matchups to watch, storylines and predictions

As Michigan and Michigan State prepare to renew their annual rivalry, both ranked in the top 10, they also stand atop the standings at the midpoint of the Big Ten season.

There remains a lot of basketball left to play before a champion can be crowned, including their season-finale on March 8 in Ann Arbor.

The first of two games in this year’s in-state blood feud (8 p.m./Fox) sets up to be perhaps even more intense and anticipated than the previous 196 meetings between the two. The Wolverines are ranked No. 2 in this week’s USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, and the Spartans are No. 8. They’ve combined so far for 38 wins and just three losses.

Here is what to watch for and predictions for the first matchup between the two title contenders:

What to know about Michigan

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Michigan is firmly on the 1-seed line, having lost just once by three points to Wisconsin. The Wolverines ripped off eight wins in a row earlier this season by 25 points or more and while U-M isn’t humming at quite the same level, its still won five straight with four wins by double figures (two on the road) and just knocked off previously undefeated Nebraska. Michigan is top 10 in both adjusted efficiency on offense (No. 8) and defense (No. 2) and among the nation’s leaders in effective field goal rate on both sides of the court. Michigan does it by dominating in the paint – No. 1 in 2-point shooting (64.5%) and No. 2 in 2-point defense (41.8%). Michigan has struggled with turnovers recently, No. 13 in the Big Ten at 16.8% of possessions, but it plays with the fastest tempo of any team, so it generates more trips than anybody in the league. Michigan is also solid on the offensive glass, No. 3 in the Big Ten, but will now face perhaps the best rebounding team in the country.

What to know about Michigan State

The Spartans (19-2) have equaled their best 21-game start in school history and are tied at 9-1 atop the Big Ten standings along with the Wolverines and Cornhuskers (Illinois looms a half-game back and hosts Washington on Thursday). However, MSU also is coming off a taxing Tuesday overtime comeback at Rutgers. The Spartans’ lone league loss was at Nebraska on Jan. 2, and they have dominated in their home Big Ten victories by an average of 24.4 points while holding those five opponents each under 67 points (55.4 allowed). It’s a key to MSU ranking No. 1 in the country in defensive adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.com, to go with the 43rd-best adjusted offensive efficiency. The Spartans are seventh nationally at 63.5 points allowed and 15th in scoring margin (16.0). Like most Izzo teams, this version is a force on the boards – MSU ranks second in rebounding margin (13.8) with the 18th-most rebounds per game (41.43). The Spartans are 16th in defensive boards (28.43) and tied for 47th at 13.0 offensive rebounds, and they are first in the Big Ten and 13th in Division I at 17.14 fastbreak points a game.

Michigan vs Michigan State matchup to watch

Garcia: U-M’s Yaxel Lendeborg vs MSU’s Coen Carr

Few teams have a one-on-one matchup who can contend with Lendeborg, but MSU’s Carr might have the athleticism and size to do it. Lendeborg has struggled from deep recently, making just 6 of 40 (15.0%) attempts in eight games this month. While that has to go up, he also can’t settle for being a jump shooter and must find a way to get inside the arc, where he’s made 68 of 100 buckets this year. On defense, meanwhile, he must not take any plays off or Carr will put him on a highlight reel. While many will watch this game and look at the front court or the point guard, the over-sized wings could have a big say in how this plays out.

Solari: MSU’s Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. U-M’s Elliot Cadeau

Point guard play often is the difference in these rivalry games. Reigning conference player of the week Fears joined is generating buzz as a potential Big Ten and national player of the year candidate, leading MSU at 14.1 points, and his 8.9 assists ranks 0.1 behind national leader Braden Smith from Purdue. Over his last nine games, the 6-foot-2 third-year sophomore averages 17.5 points and 8.4 assists to 2.2 turnovers while shooting 51% from the field and 92.2% at the free-throw line. The 6-1 Cadeau, who averages 10.1 points and 5.3 assists with 2.7 turnovers, needs to slow down Fears defensively and avoid getting baited into fouls.

Michigan vs Michigan State storyline to watch

Garcia: The holdovers vs the newcomers

Michigan’s four leading scorers - Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and Cadeau – are all transfers in their first year with the program. None have experienced this rivalry. MSU’s top four guys – Fears, Carr, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper – are all in at least their third season in East Lansing. How does the knowledge of this game impact things, if at all? Could U-M not recognize the magnitude until its too late? Might MSU be too amped up, knowing what this one means to its fanbase? While the benches and winning on the margins will matter, the tone will be set at the top by both team’s go-to guys.

Solari: Protecting home court

MSU’s only home loss this season was a 66-60 defeat against No. 4 Duke, and it lost just once at Breslin a year ago in finishing 17-3 and winning the Big Ten by three games. That included a 79-62 rout of U-M to close out the regular season, during which the Wolverines’ L.J. Cason and Phat Phat Brooks blocked the midcourt logo during the traditional senior kiss and the Spartans’ Tre Holloman shoved both. Brooks and Holloman both transferred, and Cason is among only five scholarship players back for U-M. MSU’s returning veterans and the Izzone won’t forget, so expect higher-than-usual emotions.

What Dusty May is saying

“When we talk about Michigan State, it's in the summertime,” May told the Free Press. “About how much pressure they put on your defense, how much pressure they put on your transition events, how much pressure they put on the glass, and how disciplined you have to play against them, because their ability to draw fouls – that's what we're talking about. 

“We're not talking about the overall record the last 100 years, it's how do we beat that basketball team? And because they're elite in these areas, we have to be prepared for that.”

What Tom Izzo is saying

“Every year you want me to tell you how much I hate them. So I will say it again – Do I hate them? Of course, I hate them. They hate us. You think I’m getting Valentine’s Day cards or birthday cards? That’s the way it is, guys. It’s no different than anywhere in America. The key word is respect, and I do respect them a lot. That’s all that matters.”

“Rivalries are always rivalries, but rivalries when both teams are good are more important rivalries. It has not always been that way, but it is that way this year, and that is great. … When you got two teams ranked in the top seven, it might be the best that has been in a lot of years.”

Michigan vs Michigan State predictions

Tony Garcia: There’s a reason KenPom has this game as a 50-50 toss up. These teams are both elite at what they do and evenly matched in a number of ways. But this one is at Breslin, where U-M is just 3-22 in its last 25 games. Michigan has had to get up for a rivalry game against OSU and a top-five matchup vs. Nebraska in the past week – doing it three times in a row is ever-so-slightly too much to ask. It’s tight until the end, but Fears lives up to his name. The pick: Michigan State 74, Michigan 71.

Chris Solari: The Wolverines haven’t won at Breslin since Jan. 13, 2018, when MSU sixth-year senior Trey Fort was still a high school junior. In many ways, this is a referendum on program building in 2026 – Izzo’s tried-and-true blueprint vs. May’s new-age restocking. But neither Izzo nor Fears will let the Spartans forget how things ended a year ago on their court and use their close-game experience and togetherness to survive late. The pick: MSU 82, Michigan 78.

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan vs MSU preview for historic top-10 matchup in game today