Louisville at Duke preview

Louisville Cardinals (14-5, 4-3) at Duke Blue Devils (18-1, 7-0)

Game Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium: Durham, N.C.

Television: ESPN

Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play), Cory Alexander (analysis), and Jay Williams (analysis)

Favorite: Duke by 7.5

Series: Duke leads, 18-9

Last Meeting: Duke won 84-73 on Jan. 6, 2026 in Louisville

Series History:

Projected Starting Lineups:

Louisville

• G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
• G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
• G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
• F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
• C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)

Duke

• G Caleb Foster (6-5, 205, Jr.)
• G Isaiah Evans (6-6, 180, So.)
• F Dame Sarr (6-8, 190, Fr.)
• F Cameron Boozer (6-9, 250, Fr.)
• C Patrick Ngongba (6-11, 250, So.)

Injury Reports:

Statistics:

Duke’s Season to Date:

Relevant Videos:

About Duke:

There aren’t a ton of new items to discuss since the last time we talked about Duke in this space 20 days ago.

Since pulling off yet another second half comeback to secure yet another 11-point victory over Louisville back on Jan. 6, the Blue Devils have added four more conference wins to their total and now sit at 18-1 overall and a perfect 7-0 in ACC play. They are, without question, the top dog in the conference and are, without question, a top-tier contender to win the 2025-26 national championship.

The main thing always remains the main thing, and the main thing for this Duke team is still national Player of the Year front-runner Cameron Boozer. At 6’9 with a strong frame, good length, great instincts and excellent coordination, there’s a reason Boozer is almost certain to be a top six pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. He enters Monday night as the nation’s leading scorer (23.7 ppg), while also ranking third in the ACC in rebounding (9.9 rpg) and tied for third in steals (1.9 spg).

He is very good, but you already knew that.

Offensively, Boozer has a versatile and reliable scoring package. He’s effective in the post with soft touch, polished footwork, and the ability to finish with either hand. His face-up game is advanced, allowing him to attack off the dribble, hit pull-ups in the midrange, and stretch the floor to the three-point line. He excels at using his body to carve out space, seal defenders, and convert through contact. He’s also a high-level rebounder and an underrated playmaker who can read the floor, pass out of double teams, and facilitate when needed.

Defensively, Boozer may not be an elite level rim protector, but he’s disciplined and smart. He’s very rarely out of position and knows how to use his body effectively when defending in the paint.

Louisville doesn’t have to “keep Boozer in check” to win this game, but they can’t allow him to dominate the game the way he did in round one.

Duke’s second-leading scorer is sophomore guard Isaiah “Slim” Evans at 14.4 ppg. One of the better shooters in the ACC, Evans is in a bit of a slump from the outside, but has still scored in double figures in seven consecutive games. With a lightning quick release and the ultimate shooter’s mentality, Evans is the definition of a microwave scorer. He scored 23 points and a had a career-high four steals in the first game against Louisville. Evans is the ACC’s seventh-leading scorer in conference play, averaging 18.9 points per game, and is tied for fourth in the league with 3.1 3-pointers per ACC contest.

Sophomore center Patrick Nbonga II has taken his game up several notches this season, and is averaging 11.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. While he has a relatively limited offensive skillset, the combination of his size and the attention defenders have to pay to Cameron Boozer makes him a lethal threat to a team like Louisville. U of L got him in foul trouble early on in the first meeting and he had a limited impact. The Cards likely won’t be as fortunate two times in a row.

The one big weakness for this team early on the season was a lack of a guard who could consistently make plays off the dribble. Recognizing this, Jon Scheyer moved freshman PG Cayden Boozer into the starting lineup in December. Everything changed with the way Caleb Foster played against Louisville on Jan. 6. The veteran floor general flipped the game on its head by consistently whipping U of L’s on-ball defender and making plays at or around the rim.

Now, Foster is back as the team’s primary offensive initiator, and he’s been re-joined in the starting lineup by Dame Sarr, who completely took Ryan Conwell out of his game in the second half of the first meeting. Sarr, a 6’6 freshman from Italy, might wind up being the best NBA player on this team. While still very raw, he has an outrageous skillset that should help this team come close to reaching its ceiling as the season goes on. His offensive game is still coming around, but Cardinal fans already figured out that he doesn’t need to score a ton to have a dramatic impact on a game.

It’s also worth noting that while having something of a quiet season overall, Maliq Brown has been Duke’s top playmaker the past two games. He’s had a team-high five assists in both of the Blue Devils’ last two games — wins over Stanford and Wake Forest.

Schematically, Duke plays at one of the fastest paces in the country when it has the ball in its hands and then tries to slow things down dramatically when possession changes hands. Obviously, Louisville will attempt to combat that, especially with Mikel Brown Jr. back at point guard.

There isn’t anything that the Blue Devils don’t do at least moderately well, but the two offensive areas where they have looked mildly shaky have been free-throw shooting and turnovers, particularly allowing steals. Louisville should be as aggressive as is allowed on the defensive end tonight.

Notable:

—Weather forced Louisville to travel to Durham on Monday morning, and not Sunday as originally planned. It’s the first time under Pat Kelsey that the Cardinals have traveled for a road game on the same day the game is being played.

—After winning three straight games over Duke in 2020 and 2021, Louisville has lost its last eight contests against the Blue Devils, including both meetings last season.

—In each of its last three games against the Blue Devils, Louisville has led at halftime before eventually losing by exactly 11 points in all three contests.

—Louisville is 3-8 against Duke in games played at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

—Over the last 10 seasons, Duke is 70-5 overall when playing at home as at least a 6.5-point favorite.

—Duke has won 29 of its last 30 games against ACC opponents.

—Duke has won 26 consecutive home games overall, and 13 consecutive home games against conference opponents.

—Duke is 6-1 in games against top 25 opponents so far this season.

—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 171-66 all-time in conference play as a head coach.

—Louisville is one of three DI teams with at least five victories of 40 points or more this season, joining Michigan (6) and High Point (6).

—Duke’s eight Quadrant I victories are tied for the most in college basketball this season.

—Duke is one of only two teams ranked in the top-eight nationally in both offensive efficiency (126.5, 5th) and defensive efficiency (92.8, 5th) ratings.

—Duke is 21-0 over the last two seasons when Isaiah Evans makes more than two three-pointers.

—Louisville is 2-4 in games against top 25 opponents so far this season, and 4-9 in such games under Pat Kelsey overall.

—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 0-4 in games against Duke.

—Duke head coach Jon Scheyer is 6-0 in games against Louisville.

—Louisville is 5-12 against Duke since joining the ACC in 2014-15.

—Louisville is the only program in college basketball that played at least 10 games against Mike Krzyzewski and owned a winning record (9-8) against the now retired Hall of Famer.

—Louisville and Duke have played 12 times with both teams ranked in the AP top 25 poll. Duke owns a 7-5 advantage in those meetings.

—Duke is 18-7 all-time when playing on Jan. 26, including a 13-3 record in home games (9-3 at Cameron Indoor Stadium).

—Louisville tops the ACC and sits 22nd nationally with 17.8 assists per contest, while ranking 18th in the country with 41.4 rebounds per outing.

—Duke leads the ACC and are is nationally in scoring margin (+20.5).

—Duke tops the conference and ranks 11th in the country in rebounding margin (+9.6).

—The Blue Devils rank 19th in the nation and second in the ACC in scoring defense (65.3 ppg).

—Louisville is 0-8 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.

—Louisville has had four games of at least 24 assists, the first time since 2010-11 that the program has had multiple games of 24+ assists; the Cardinals had five games of at 24+ assists that season.

—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark five times in a season for the first time since 1976-77. The record for most 100+ point games in a season at U of L is six.

—Louisville is 41-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-12 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Louisville is 121-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Duke 82, Louisville 74