Paul Toboni and the Washington Nationals are embarking on Project 2028

The MacKenzie Gore trade made it abundantly clear that Paul Toboni is thinking about the long game. It is not just that Toboni traded Gore that has me thinking this. The prospect package he chose is full of high upside players that are multiple years from the MLB. Four of the five pieces in the deal have no chance of making the big leagues in 2026.

This does not bother Toboni because he is thinking more about building the 2028 Nationals than the 2026 Nats. All of Toboni’s actions suggest he does not believe this team has a prayer in 2026. It may be a harsh reality to accept, but he is correct. Even with heavier spending, this team would not be able to pass the Phillies, Mets or Braves in 2026.

Instead, Toboni is trying to build a team that can compete in the NL East at the end of this decade and entering the 2030’s. There are plenty of reasons to do this. With a lockout looming, the 2027 season is in a state of limbo. The Phillies, who have won the division the last two years are an aging team with only a couple years left in their competitive window.

When 2028 hits, the Nats should be ready to strike. Young big league pieces like James Wood, Daylen Lile and Dylan Crews would be truly entering their prime at that time. The Nats would also have a ton of reinforcements making it to the MLB at that point, especially on the infield. This organization has an embarrassment of riches on the infield in A ball. You would have to imagine that some of these players will really break out.

There is no guarantee that CJ Abrams will be on the 2028 Nats, but Eli Willits should be on his way to take the shortstop job at that point. Gavin Fien, Devin Fitz-Gerald, Marconi German and others will also be charging towards their big league debuts. This has the chance to be reminiscent of those Orioles teams that seemed to have a new top 100 prospect debuting every week.

All of this sounds great on paper, but it is really frustrating for Nationals fans. We have been rebuilding for a long time now and this new guy is coming in asking for even more patience. It is tough for Nats fans and Toboni knows it. After the trade, Toboni talked about how tough it was to root for struggling Giants teams growing up and empathized with the fans. However, he made it clear that he thought these long term focused moves were what was best for the franchise.

Back when Mike Rizzo was running the show, the Nats always felt like they were building towards 2026. Now, we are back to square one. That is not Paul Toboni’s fault though. It is not his responsibility to fix Mike Rizzo’s broken rebuild. His job is to build the team in his own image, something Barry Svrluga noted on the radio.

After losing 96 games last year, it was impossible to deny the rebuild was not trending in the right direction. Toboni has pointed that out on a number of occasions. He said that while it is not impossible to turn things around in one year, it is tough and that last season was a reality check.

With that in mind, Toboni does not feel like it is in the team’s best interest to build for 2026. Based on his actions, Toboni wants to use this year to evaluate what he has on the roster and go from there. There are a ton of unproven players with upside on this roster and Toboni wants to see who emerges from the pack.

This approach is probably going to lead to a lot of losses, but it is shrewd. If you want to see winning baseball in the Nats organization next year, the MLB team is not going to be the place to look. I think the minor league teams will take a major jump next year. That is where you will see what Toboni is building towards.

He is not going to neglect the MLB team entirely though. However, the goal of 2026 is more about individual progress than competing for a playoff spot. If James Wood, Daylen Lile, Dylan Crews, Cade Cavalli and Brady House make progress in their development, but the team wins 70 games, that is a successful season, at least in my books. I have a feeling Toboni would agree with me as well.

The wins will be taking place on the development side. Toboni’s Project 2028 will be a slower burn, but one that I believe will have steady progress. It is tough to talk about the 2027 season because of all the uncertainty. Right now, we are not even sure if there will be a season at all. The CBA expires and all the signs point to an all out war in the next negotiations.

I really hope the whole season is not wiped out because that would push back some of the Nats plans. The development of the Nats minor leaguers could be harmed by this strike. Minor Leaguers not on the 40-man roster would be able to play, but I imagine things would not be normal.

With all the young talent entering the Nats organization, I really do believe that this team will be good again. If the Lerner’s open up their checkbook eventually, this team could be great.

This version of the rebuild feels different to me. The people running the show have a much better understanding of the modern game. Mike Rizzo is a Nationals legend, but it did really seem like the game passed him by at the end. Meanwhile, Toboni is a young up and comer who is on the cutting edge.

Nats fans, this year is going to suck at the MLB level, let’s not sugarcoat it. While the lineup has the potential to be solid, this pitching staff is a barren wasteland. A few of these players could surprise us, but on paper this pitching staff is really bad. 

With Luis Perales, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora and others in the pipeline, there will be reinforcements. However, those reinforcements are probably not coming in 2026. When this team becomes competitive again, I have a feeling they will need to make an aggressive move for pitching in the free agent market. I do not have much faith that ownership will pull the trigger, but we can cross that bridge when we get there.

For now, Nats fans will have to take victories when they get them. In this new regime, I do think we will see more prospects break out and excite us. This should be a year of progress, even if it does not come in the standings.

Paul Toboni is not too worried about the MLB standings this year. To be frank, his goal is not to win the World Series in 2026, or even make the playoffs. His goal is to create Project 2028. If his plan works out, the Nationals should be ready to make a splash by 2028. As we enter the 2030’s, the Nationals should be a young and hungry team competing for championships. We are a long way away, but for the first time in a while, I truly trust the process.