TCR Bracketology 5.0: Keaton Wagler Appreciation Week

I had a different, more bracketology related introduction written for this week’s article, but like Matt Painter’s defensive gameplan, Keaton Wagler made me throw it in the trash. Much has already been said about Keaton’s historic performance on The Champaign Room already, and yet it still does not do the magnitude of the performance justice.

46 points on just 17 field goal attempts.

9-11 from three, with most of those off the bounce from NBA range.

I am trying to write this article, but I keep getting sidetracked rewatching highlights and reading and listening everything I can find on Keaton Wagler.

What does it all mean for March and beyond? Right now, it moves the Illini up into a tight clump of teams including Michigan State, Houston, Iowa State, Purdue and Gonzaga fighting on the border of the two and three seeds. Our sparkling 4-3 record in Quad 1A games, with no losses outside of that quadrant stacks up well against any of them, as well as our Kenpom (4) and T-Rank (6). For me, that slides the Illini in as the third 2-seed, behind fellow Big Ten squads Nebraska and Michigan State. Seeding that high will almost certainly have the Illini playing in Saint Louis for their first two games.

Beyond the seeding though, a performance like this is a springboard. The confidence to be able to go into any environment, and trust that the moment won’t be too big for your superstar freshman is massive for the psyche of this team. March is supposed to be dominated by veteran squads, but after all the people Wagler has already proved wrong during his meteoric rise, would you really put it past him to lead the Illini on a deep run, and etch his name in Madness history alongside the likes of fellow diaper dandies Mike Bibby, Pervis Ellison, Anthony Davis and Carmelo Anthony?

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona (San Diego)
2. Illinois (Saint Louis)
3. Gonzaga (Portland)
4. Kansas (Tampa Bay)
5. Arkansas
6. Saint Louis
7. Louisville
8. Texas A&M
9. Utah State
10. Wisconsin
11. Miami (Ohio)
12. Belmont
13. Troy
14. Utah Valley
15. Wright State
16. Florida A&M/Maryland Eastern Shore

Notes on the Region:

It’s late and Keaton Wagler has fried my brain, so I am just going to quote myself from two weeks ago, the first time I had us across from Wright State:

The Raiders are led by freshman guard Michael Cooper, who will likely be at a high major school next season. They specialize in taking away the three-point line (15th-fewest threes made per game allowed), but with only one 6-foot-9 player in their rotation, drives to the basket and offensive rebounds should be too much for the Horizon team to handle.

I should add, you can’t take away the three point line when Keaton Wagler shoots eight feet behind it.

Looking ahead to the second round, I think either of these teams would be a scary second round opponent. Louisville relies heavily on the three-point shot, which means catch them on the wrong night and they can beat you. They are only this low because their own freshmen phenom, Mikel Brown Jr., just came back after missing eight games with a back injury, and Louisville struggled to a 4-4 record in his absence. Getting a Big Ten opponent in the second round does not feel right, but with three Big Ten teams on the 2-line, and two on the 10-line, it is possible for the committee to set up this match up, as long as Illinois and Wisconsin do not end up meeting a second time in the Big Ten Tournament. If the Badgers get past the Cardinals in the Chucky Hepburn bowl, getting Nolan Winter in some foul trouble is a good way to beat Wisconsin as frontcourt depth is a major concern.

The Sweet Sixteen in this case would put us against a mid-major school regardless of who wins the first two round matchups: Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio), or Utah Valley. Focusing on the favorite, it would give Adam Miller a chance to go full circle with his college career, ending it with a loss to the team he left. Miller has largely struggled this year for Gonzaga, with career lows across the board, only shooting 33% from three.

The first thing I noticed after completing this bracket was of course the potential for the long-awaited Elite Eight trilogy bout with Arizona. The Wildcats won a close one in 2001, but Illinois got them back with the greatest comeback of all-time in 2005. This one has the makings of another instant classic. Kylan Boswell against former teammate Jaden Bradley as defensive stoppers and senior leaders. The battle of freshmen lottery picks between Keaton Wagler and Koa Peat. Finally, we have the clash of the European titans, with Motiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov going against David Mirkovic and the Ivisic twins.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke (Greenville)
2. Michigan State (Buffalo)
3. Vanderbilt (Greenville)
4. Texas Tech (San Diego)
5. Clemson
6. North Carolina
7. Villanova
8. UCF
9. St. Mary’s
10. New Mexico
11. UCLA
12. Tulsa
13. High Point
14. UNC-Wilmington
15. Navy
16. UT-Martin

Notes on the Region:

Navy has not made the tournament since 1998 but actually has a rich history of being competitive in basketball, most recently with an Elite Eight run in 1986 with The Admiral, David Robinson. It would be fitting that they draw Michigan State in the first round, as Tom Izzo strikes the appearance of a Napoleon-esque general on the sideline.

North Carolina versus UCLA pits two bluebloods against each other in round one. Donovan Dent has finally started playing like one of the most highly rated transfers of the offseason, as UCLA move back into the bracket by getting their first win over a tournament team last week, a huge home win over Purdue. I am probably the only person to find it geographically interesting that Greenville will host three different teams from North Carolina (Duke, UNC, and UNC-Wilmington), two teams from Tennessee (Vanderbilt and UT-Martin), which make sense geographically, but also has two California teams sent across the country (UCLA and Saint Mary’s).

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (Buffalo)
2. Houston (Oklahoma City)
3. Purdue (Philadelphia)
4. BYU (Portland)
5. Alabama
6. Saint John’s
7. SMU
8. Kentucky
9. NC State
10. USC
11. Santa Clara/Virginia Tech
12. Yale
13. Hawaii
14. East Tennessee State
15. Portland State
16. Merrimack/UMBC

Notes on the Region:

USC gets a huge win at Wisconsin on Sunday night to stay clear of the play-in games. Andy Enfield left USC in a surprising move to take the SMU job a couple years ago, which led to Eric Musselman taking the USC job. Enfield has done a nice job making SMU relevant again, while Musselman has had a harder time getting his highly talented but high turnover rosters to click at USC than he did at Arkansas. IF SMU gets past USC, they get an all-Texas showdown with Houston, their former American Athletic Conference rival before both teams made the jump up to separate power conferences.

Purdue’s two-loss week drops them from the cusp of a 1-seed down to the middle of the 3-line. Assuming they get past East Tennessee State, they would get a talented Saint John’s team in the second round. After a disappointing 2025, Saint John’s has looked much better in 2026, poised to challenge UConn at the top of the Big East. Zubi Ejiofor leads the way and will be a handful for Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Ejiofor leads the Red Storm in scoring, rebounding, assists, and blocks, and is a tenth of a steal away from leading that as well.

If Purdue makes the Sweet Sixteen, they are once again across from the Houston team that knocked them out last March. Kingston Flemings was part of the freshman trio who made history by scoring over forty points on the same day on Saturday, along with Keaton Wagler (have I mentioned him yet?) and AJ Dybantsa. Purdue will have to come up with a much better answer of how to stop the combustible Flemings than they had for Wagler if they want to stand a chance against the Cougars.

On the top half of the bracket, Yale will try to outsmart an Alabama team that will need to get healthy before the tourney if they want to fulfill their potential. Luckily for the Tide, Charles Bediako was able to get a restraining order to come back to school and play immediately, despite having declared for the NBA draft two and a half years ago. Welcome back to Champaign, Kofi Cockburn?

South (Houston)

1. UConn (Philadelphia)
2. Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
3. Iowa State (Saint Louis)
4. Virginia (Tampa Bay)
5. Florida
6. Tennessee
7. Auburn
8. Georgia
9. Iowa
10. Miami (Florida)
11. Ohio State/San Diego State
12. McNeese
13. Liberty
14. North Dakota State
15. Austin Peay
16. Long island

Notes on the Region:

Virginia stands out as getting a pretty nasty draw here. First, they get Liberty, a small school just an hour away from Virginia who makes a lot of threes and will be very motivated to take down big brother. Get past Liberty though, and they draw the reigning national champs close to home in Tampa Bay, despite being the higher seeded team.

Assuming Florida comes out of that quadrant, it would set up a rematch in the Sweet Sixteen of the last two national champions. They played each other in early December, with UConn squeaking out a four-point victory. UConn has been surviving close call after close call in a weak Big East this year, while Florida looked to have found their stride in a jumbled SEC (as evidenced by the 5-8 seeds here all being SEC teams), before dropping a game at home to Auburn for the first time this century this weekend.

If Iowa State can get past Tennessee in a defensive dogfight, and Nebraska can do the world a favor and take out Bruce Pearl’s son, it would set up a Sweet Sixteen matchup of Fred Hoiberg, the Mayor of Ames, playing against his hometown and alma mater for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Would Iowa State un-retire his jersey if Nebraska wins?

First Four Out: Cal, Indiana, Mizzou, Seton Hall

Next Four Out: Texas, TCU, George Mason, Butler

Bids By Conference

Big Ten: 10

SEC: 9

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

WCC: 3