No. 12 Ohio State women’s basketball vs. No. 10 Iowa: Preview and prediction

The Buckeye and Hawkeye rivalry continues Sunday in Iowa City

Over the last six editions of the rivalry between the No. 12 Ohio State women’s basketball team and the Iowa Hawkeyes, the teams are 3-3. Each year, the names change, and the positions in the conference move slightly, but it is always a game with intrigue. In three of the last four editions, two ended in overtime, and the 2025 Big Ten tournament ended in a one-point game.

Even if names like Jacy Sheldon, Cotie McMahon, and Caitlin Clark are no longer part of it, the 2025-26 teams each carry interesting matchups and a unique challenge for the Buckeyes.


Ava Heiden & Hannah Stuelke

There are few worse times for Ohio State to lose interior presence than before taking on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Although head coach Kevin McGuff avoided specifics on forward Kylee Kitts’ return, the coach slipped in “for a while” on the redshirt freshman’s day-to-day prognosis. Kitt’s shoulder injury occurred less than a week before the Buckeyes face the formidable duo of forward Hannah Stuelke and center Ava Heiden.

For Big Ten fans around before this season, Stuelke is not new. The senior entered Iowa in the middle of the Caitlin Clark-led Final Four runs, back in the 2022-23 season. At first, Stuelke was a by-product of Clark’s game, like most people were on the Hawkeyes roster. The heir apparent to center Monika Czinano, Stuelke changed from another interior piece for Iowa to now a leader who can hurt teams in multiple ways.

Last season, first-year head coach Jan Jensen moved Stuelke from her No. 5 role to more of a No. 4, with mixed results. In the forward’s second year as Iowa’s primary big, Stuelke scored 12.7 points per game, under her 14-point average in Clark’s final season. Jensen moved Stuelke back and forth between interior responsibilities in the coach’s goal of expanding Stuelke’s game, and that work paid off for this year’s edition of the Hawkeyes.

Stuelke is still an interior scoring threat, but now has the creativity in distribution to go alongside the made baskets. The senior developed more of a range in her shooting and will take baskets from midrange, not just inside the paint. However, Stuelke’s history of interior dominance means she can draw defenses away from the rim when she receives the basket, and this season, she has a partner under the rim who benefits from it mightily.

It is no surprise that Stuelke’s 2.9 assists per game career high runs parallel to another career high on the team for sophomore center Ava Heiden. After the freshman averaged 9.8 minutes per appearance, all from the bench, Jensen put Heiden into the starting lineup, where the 6-foot-4 big leads Iowa with 16.3 points per game.

Heiden is not a Euro-style big who will step back and hit long baskets (Heiden has one shot from deep this season, and she missed it). No, Heiden’s game is inside, where she takes advantage of one-on-one matchups with her ability to get around fellow bigs. Heiden is second in the conference with a 62.6% field goal percentage, behind only Penn State Nittany Lion center Gracie Merkle’s nation-leading 74.2%

The sophomore enters Sunday with 20 points in each of her last two games, both against ranked opponents in the then No. 15 Michigan State Spartans and current No. 15 Maryland Terrapins.

Now, if it were a one-on-one matchup, Ohio State center Elsa Lemmilä has started this season against UCLA Bruins’ 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts and the aforementioned Merkle. Even with Heiden’s ability inside, Lemmilä already has recent experience against the two best in the Big Ten, which Heiden could be in the coming years.

However, it will not be a one-on-one matchup with Stuelke and Heiden playing together. Ohio State does not have a second interior option to try to thwart the duo. It could be a primary focus for Iowa, with the high likelihood of Kitts’ absence.

Guard matchups

That means the Buckeyes need to either have the press working or hit a high percentage of shots to stay in the game. Iowa is not immune to turnovers, with 15.2 giveaways a game. The pressing Spartans forced 16, with 14 steals. Ohio State will need to frustrate the Hawkeyes, which requires communication — something not easily done in a normally raucous Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Every Buckeye on the roster will play their first game in Iowa against the Hawkeyes on Sunday. How have previous strong away environments against the UConn Huskies and Maryland Terrapins prepared Ohio State for the unique atmosphere challenge is a storyline to watch. If it impacts the Buckeyes and causes Ohio State to lose the turnover margin, and the lack of size inside to match the Hawkeyes, it could be ugly.

If the Scarlet and Gray can force turnovers, it could turn the crowd into a positive for the visitors. Go to any loaded arena, and the crowd becomes an extra official on the court. If guards Kennedy Cambridge, Ava Watson, and Jaloni Cambridge pick up the intensity and get steals, it will certainly come with some constructive criticism from the Hawkeye faithful.

On Iowa’s side, they are led at guard by Georgia Tech transfer sophomore Chit-Chat Wright. The guard averages a team-high 3.9 assists and 46.8% from deep, the best for any Iowa starter. If given space, Wright will take shots from deep. Also, at 5-foot-4, Wright can hide behind a screen and take the second or two she has to herself to throw up a three-point attempt.

Also, Wright is part of a Hawkeye side that is second in the conference in assists with 20.9. Iowa makes teams run with its extra passes and can expose any lazy movements or lapses in attention.

What also makes Iowa dangerous is how much the team is never really out of a game. Like Ohio State, the Hawkeyes had a double-digit deficit to the Indiana Hoosiers, 16 points at halftime, and turned on a 17-point run away from Iowa City to win 85-78.

Then, maybe more impressive, was on Thursday against Maryland. Iowa was up 17 points late in the game, only for the Terrapins to erase the deficit and force overtime. What stood out was how the Hawkeyes responded in overtime. Despite having none of the momentum, Jensen’s side kept their composure and outscored the Terps 12-5 in College Park, Maryland.

Either down or up, the Hawkeyes are not usually out of games completely. If Ohio State does take a lead late in the game, Iowa is not a team conditioned to take the loss.

Projected Lineups

Ohio State

G: Jaloni Cambridge
G: Chance Gray
G: Kennedy Cambridge
G: Ava Watson
C: Elsa Lemmilä

Lineup Notes

  • Thursday’s win for Ohio State over Indiana was the first career start for Ava Watson, who had six steals, a personal best against a Big Ten opponent
  • Jaloni Cambridge is 19 points away from matching her freshman season high, and 119 points away from scoring 1,000 in her NCAA career
  • Ohio State crawled out of the bottom of the Big Ten in three-point shooting percentage and now sits No. 15 at 31.9% efficiency

Iowa

G: Chit-Chat Wright
G: Taylor McCabe
G: Kylie Feuerbach
F: Hannah Stuelke
C: Ava Heiden

Lineup Notes

  • Ava Heiden scored at least 10 points in each of Iowa’s eight Big Ten games
  • Freshman guard Addison Deal hit a career high of 18 points against Oregon on Jan. 15, which won her Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors
  • Iowa is second in the Big Ten with 20.9 assists per game, 1.9 more than Ohio State at No. 3 in the conference

Prediction

In a battle of teams that scrap out victories and are not concerned with big deficits, it could go either way. Stuelke and Heiden will have a strong game inside with the Buckeyes leaning on mostly center Elsa Lemmilä to carry the interior workload.

Jaloni Cambridge will have a strong scoring day with at least 25 points, but the game will come down to the final possession. Iowa hits a three to win it in front of its home crowd, a 47th consecutive sellout.


LGHL Score Prediction: 78-75 Iowa Hawkeyes


How to Watch

See what streaming experts have to say about how to best watch Sunday’s game and more in Land-Grant’s How to Watch.

Category: General Sports