The Astros CAN Compete in 2026!

Brett Chancey – Independent Journalist | Co-Host Locked on Astros | Back to the Bullpen with Mike Stanton

The Astros embark on a season in a way they haven’t known since 2016. This is the first year they enter a season where they didn’t qualify for the previous Postseason. We all recall the first round, 2 game exit vs. the Detroit Tigers when they at least made it. Many say was the beginning of the end. I do think, however, despite missing the playoffs in 2025, the Astros stock going into 2026 has gone up.

What gives you the right?

Well, this team has a slew of very capable players on this roster and in this rotation to be highly competitive in the American League West, as well contend for the American League title. Realistically on paper, you would put the Blue Jays, as well others who qualified for the postseason above the Astros. That doesn’t mean I am ready to put them on the shelf, and no one is ignoring it will be a tough task.

I am a firm believer in the law of averages, especially when it comes to the 162-game season that is Major League Baseball. The Houston Astros set a record for injured players in a season and the year prior dealt with injuries so frequently it led to roster irregularities and a team that in the end was too banged up to truly compete in 2026. There is no need to recall all the injuries,

3 Things to focus on:

1. Win the innings war, with a six man rotation and pitching depth.
2. Scoring runs, as well keeping them off the board (offensive and defensive approach)
3. Stop living in the margins: Astros need more depth, fewer empty innings.

Win the Innings War, Pitching Built to Last.

The Astros fastest route back to pitching stability – not “rely on ONE ACE” (AKA HUNTER BROWN), but stack usable starts so the bullpen isn’t cooked by May. They have the starting depth to do that, even if they don’t add anyone at this point. When a team leans into a six man rotation early, which the Astros will by default due to schedule.

There is proof that at this point according to Joe Espada this is a clear and intentional direction for this pitching staff. This was detailed by Brian McTaggart in a tweet December 15, 2025 prior to signing Tatsuya Imai.

The Astros need six serious starters to get off to a hot start pitching wise and take pressure off the offense. My starting 6 would be:

1. Hunter Brown
2. Christian Javier
3. Tatsuya Imai
4. Mike Burrows
5. Spencer Arrighetti
6. Ryan Weiss/Jason Alexander

(Spring Training will also determine if Lance McCullers Jr. has a role in this rotation, which he could earn, Nate Pearson, AJ Blubagh, Colton Gordon, and J.P. France.)

While some may pencil in McCullers Jr. I am not there yet, as with Gordon because I think he profiles as a Long Reliever in the grand scheme of things. The others not mentioned Wesneski and Blanco won’t factor in until July or August realistically speaking.

If the Houston Astros six man rotation can create fewer bullpen “bridge games”, starts where they pitch into the 6th inning more than not, then you have a recipe for success. The one thing that begs the question, will the Astros be able to trust anyone beyond Hunter Brown a 3rd time through the order?

Scoring Runs: Bringing Runners Home.

The Astros don’t need to be the #1 offense in MLB to be a playoff team – but they do need to get back to controlling run environments with quality contact, patience at the plate, and increasing their RISP. With all the discussion of interest from other teams regarding a trade for Isaac Paredes this seems to be a counter intuitive goal, if you are going off past history.

The Astros getting more barrels and fewer easy outs isn’t a vibe, it’s a measurable and attainable goal.

This begins with a Healthy Yordan Alvarez. His Barrel % is 13.8% and huge driver of slugging and extra-base hits. His 52.9% Hard Hit percentage is among the best in MLB, we know his ability to hit all sides of the field as well. Jeremy Pena having another solid offensive year would be huge. While his chase rate is at a career 28.4% he hasn’t been below 35.9%, if the new hitting coaches can get him to reduce that, and get more lift on the ball his barrell % would go up and be a catalyst for this team.

A third player I will mention, (Isaac Paredes is a given if he remains on this roster Opening Day) is Carlos Correa. I believe that with him playing 3B you will see a Correa that stays on the field and can enjoy a chase rate in the 2021 range where he saw his lowest chase% at 24.1%. This would give higher probability to more barrels. In 2021 he had his 2nd highest barrel % at 11.4% only topped by 2019 12.9%. What does this all mean? I see this offense feeding off each other. Notice I didn’t mention Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz, Cam Smith, or any of the others. I didn’t for this simple fact, this offense goes as these 3 listed go. If you can get the others to follow you have a playoff offense.

Run Prevention 101 (Pitching and Catching)

This Astros team narrowly missed the playoffs almost solely off of it pitching alone. In the same conversation they were the same pitchers who at times couldn’t stop late inning comebacks. In 2025 the onus is on the offense primarily speaking, but the pitching wasn’t flawless. You need a couple things for this too happen: Prevent runs on the board, manage opponents contact.

The Houston Astros need to understand balls will get hit, so what is the Hard Hit % of batted balls agains their pitchers, as well advancing runners on base. The Houston Astros starting backstop was 1 Catchers CS Above Avg. in 2025, the backup everyone wanted was -4 Catchers CS Above Avg. Both bottom of the barrel. While Yainer Diaz arm strength is 3rd in the league and 4th in Exchange time, his Caught stealing % was only 18%. What does all this have to do with run prevention and the pitching? I will wrap up the discussion here.

Your pitchers have to make a concerted effort to get to the plate as fast as possible. Catchers have to be in an optimal position to throw out the runners. If you can eliminate the threat of running to 2B by throwing out runners, or simply holding them at bay. This team stands to give up fewer runs. Fewer runs less pressure on the offense, as well the pitchers.

All in all I expect the Astros to be contenders in 2026, of course that is why every team plays 162 games in the regular season. As my co-host on Back to the Bullpen Mike Stanton says, getting to the playoffs is the hard part, once you’re in, it’s anybody’s game.“…….or is it? Dodgers????