Joe Lunardi dropped UNC to a No. 7 seed as defensive issues and recent losses cloud the Tar Heels’ NCAA tournament outlook.
With March looming, fans are already scouring bracket projections to see where their teams might land.
That’s especially true in Chapel Hill, where North Carolina’s uneven ACC play has raised questions about Hubert Davis and the direction of the program. The Tar Heels are 14-4 overall but just 2-3 in league games and have dropped three of their last four.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has taken notice. In his latest update, he slots North Carolina as a No. 7 seed in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament, a slide from last week when the Tar Heels were listed as a No. 5 seed in the East.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 ColgateNo. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 AuburnNo. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 Murray StateNo. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 TroyNo. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 George MasonNo. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 UNC WilmingtonNo. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 USC/New MexicoNo. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 North Dakota State
The path out of the Midwest is anything but straightforward.
In Joe Lunardi’s latest projections, North Carolina opens against the survivor of the First Four game between New Mexico and Southern California.
New Mexico sits near the top tier of mid-major programs and may be stronger than most of the opponents Carolina has seen to this point. The Lobos are No. 40 in the NET rankings, a better mark than many of the teams on UNC’s schedule. USC, meanwhile, is a capable Big Ten squad whose guard play could expose one of North Carolina’s biggest weaknesses — defending the perimeter.
Should the Tar Heels get through that first test, they would likely draw Houston in the next round, a matchup that could easily spell the end of their tournament run.
Why UNC is Slipping?
Well, the Tar Heels can’t play defense at the moment despite being one of the most efficient teams scoring wise in the conference.
The Tar Heels rank 16th in field-goal percentage allowed (49.7%) and 17th in points allowed (85.4 per game) and defensive efficiency (120.5).
The perimeter numbers are especially glaring.
North Carolina’s defensive problems start on the perimeter.
The Tar Heels rank last in the league in 3-point field-goal percentage defense (44.9%) and in effective field-goal percentage, a metric that weighs 3-pointers more heavily. Opponents have shot at least 40% from beyond the arc against UNC in four straight games. Since the start of ACC play, teams have made 72 3-pointers against the Tar Heels — an average of 14.4 per game, the worst rate in the conference.
The issues don’t stop on the inside. North Carolina is 14th in 2-point field-goal percentage defense and provides little resistance at the rim, sitting 12th in block percentage and 14th in blocks per game. Still, most of the damage is being done from long range.
Another problem that has flown under the radar is UNC’s inability to force turnovers. The Tar Heels have struggled to create miscues all season and rank second to last in the ACC and 341st nationally in turnover rate across all games. In conference play, they are 16th in turnover percentage and 18th in non-steal turnover percentage — the category that includes forced passes out of bounds, drawn charges and similar plays.
Given those numbers and a schedule that only gets tougher, North Carolina needs to start stacking quality wins and limiting bad losses to improve its NCAA tournament positioning.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Tar Heels sliding in latest Bracketology
Category: General Sports
