Did penalties really cost the Buffalo Bills a win vs. Denver Broncos?

Okay I’m a bit guilty of a clickbait-y headline here. Obviously the flags were a big deal. When you have 47 yards of controversial flags, and six less controversial, on one drive in a “next score wins” situation, of course it’s a big deal. It’s a really flipping big deal.

Now that you’re here, let’s do some math on the penalties — which will tell us much more accurately just how big of a deal they were. As a heads up, I don’t feel the need for video this week as we all relived the flags enough as it is and I doubt I’m changing anyone’s mind at this point anyway. Assuming I’m inclined to do that in the first place.

Standard and Advanced Metrics

Penalty Counts

By objective metrics it could be stated that both teams had a pretty clean game where penalties weren’t a big deal. Two thoughts on that though:

1. Penalties go down in the playoffs, so while Buffalo is below season average, getting close to that number like they did isn’t a good thing.
2. There were plenty of no-calls throughout the game (evidence of above), so it’s pretty hard to dispel the notion of a bias when four of them came on the game-deciding drive in overtime.

Penalty Yards

Making things worse is this chart. When you’re below the mean in count, being significantly above the mean in yards also isn’t a good thing. The Broncos, on the other hand, are almost exactly what would be predicted based on the counts.

Penalty Harm

Denver Broncos

Well, it’s not like there are a lot of these, so let’s just talk about ‘em all starting with the delay of game. On 4th & 3, Denver was in field goal range and tried to get Buffalo to jump offside for a free set of downs. To be fair to head coach Sean Payton, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi had already flinched once earlier in the game. The Bills didn’t fall for it and the kick was still good, so no real harm here despite the 0.5 Harm.

Speaking of flinching to give free downs, Linebacker Jonathon Cooper did that for the Bills to help set up the game-tying field goal to send it to overtime. However, the word “help” is doing some heavy lifting here. It was 3rd & 1 and Denver really hadn’t stopped any “& Short” situations all game. You could argue it saved time and/or a timeout, but Matt Prater kicked the ball with 10 seconds left and Buffalo still had one timeout. It didn’t hurt the matter, but it was also mostly insignificant.

The offensive holding call on center Alex Forsyth did matter though. It negated a nine-yard play and set Denver back to 1st & 20 with less than a minute to go in the first half. The Bills had a great shot to stop the Broncos and… didn’t. They allowed a conversion for a new set of downs and then a long touchdown.

Our cut-off for a bad day is 10.0 Harm and the Broncos landing at 4.9 is well short of the mark. Translation: Denver’s game wasn’t hampered by penalties. That tracks with the narrative review above.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills on the other hand had 13.1 total Harm, which suggests their game was hampered by flags. But I bet you knew that. Well, not the specific number I guess. Of these seven flags, only ONE doesn’t have a very deep story. So I’m sorry “Ryan Van Demark illegal block above the waist,” I’m not going to spend any more time on you.

Right guard O’Cyrus Torrence was called for offensive holding on a surefire touchdown pass to wide receiver Keon Coleman that he dropped. The Broncos declined to set up fourth down and a Bills field goal. Denver was able to decline because of the drop. If Coleman hangs on, it backs the Bills up but gives quarterback Josh Allen a chance for either a touchdown or a first down. It’s not a guarantee mind you, but Coleman’s drop eliminated one chance in a close game. I’ll always root for a chance.

Larry Ogunjobi’s penalty directly cost Buffalo three points. If Ogunjobi doesn’t flinch, the fumble the Bills recovered on that play stands. There were so many other crazy things in the game I’m betting many people forgot about this. Remember how I said about five seconds ago that I’ll always root for a chance? Negated turnovers negate four chances for your team and are thusly flagged heavily in the Harm system. Each down counts as 1.0 Harm and that’s four downs. Yes, I count all four downs. Even if the fourth down is a punt, that field position opportunity can be massive.

Finally, let’s talk about all four of the overtime flags in a lump since they basically happened in the same five-second span and ended the Bills season. Let’s do the easy one first. Cornerback Tre’Davious White slamming his helmet down and getting in the ref’s face was completely understandable. The Broncos were already close enough for a chip shot field goal too, so this one is mostly irrelevant. That said, I do think White’s defensive pass interference flag wasn’t a bad call. It wasn’t egregious either, but this one I can see.

The flags on nickel cornerback Taron Johnson and defensive end Joey Bosa came on the same play, so the Bosa one was declined to accept the Johnson flag. It was a difference of two yards so no big deal, right? Even if you think the Johnson flag was a bad call (more on that in a moment), the Bills were already screwed thanks to Bosa deciding to finally make an impact on the game in the worst possible fashion with a very blatant roughing the passer.

I think Johnson’s flag was a bad call for a few reasons. While there’s some contact, it’s fringe in most games — which makes it light for playoff officiating. Making that worse is that I won’t disagree with the general crowd on this; there were plays with similar contact earlier that weren’t called. So why then of all moments? Even worse, if you can believe it, is that the receiver is also making contact, which means if one is called so could the other. If that were to have occurred, this would have led to offsetting penalties including wiping the Bosa one clean. Replay the down, not 17 yards downfield for Denver.

If you care about my non-penalty opinions on officiating:

• Brandin Cooks caught that ball
• Marvin Mims Jr. bobbled it on his touchdown