Divisional Round Opening Odds

We get another week of football, so we have another opportunity to make some money. Fanduel will keep you in the game for as long as we want to keep playing. Gambling is big business and there are any number of ways to play. If you feel confident in your pick on the game then you can double and triple up on your hunch and win big. Of course, on the flip side, if you are less than confident you can hedge your bets and more or less break even if you mix and match.

In this edition, we look at the opening line, the opening money line, and the over/under. The line is the easiest one to understand. It is a simple 50/50 bet (minus the juice) based on the point spread. The money line uses the point spread to allow you to bet on one team or the other to win the game. Finally, the over/under is a simple bet based on the total number of points that will be scored.

The line: New England +3

The Patriots open up as a three point favorite. Depending on the source, home field advantage is usually worth two to three points on its own, so the smart guys in Vegas seem to think these teams are evenly matched. If this were a regular season game, I would be inclined to pick the Texans. I cannot do that in this instance. The Texans have only won one playoff road game and they have never won a divisional playoff game. I can’t in good conscience pick them to win a divisional playoff game when they’ve never done it.

Of course, they are coming in with a ten game winning streak and so it would be completely understandable for people to take the three points and say thank you. It is hard to go against history on this one. Obviously, streaks are meant to be broken. The Steelers had been undefeated on Monday nights and the Texans had no road playoff wins coming into the wild card round. Both of those streaks came to an end. So, nothing is inevitable. Still, it is hard to bet against history when money is on the line.

The Moneyline: New England -162

I am stacking this one. This might be an emotional bet on my part. I have been watching Houston professional football since the early 1980s. I have never witnessed a Houston football team go to the conference championship game. I was six years old the last time that happened in 1979. My formative years occurred during the run and shoot era when the Oilers went to the playoffs every year and found ways to lose every single season. You could say that I have Houston football PTSD.

In terms of the actual game itself, the Patriots and the Texans turned in the two best defensive performances in the wild card round. Drake Maye is still an unknown. The Texans have performed well defensively against the other two remaining quarterbacks in the AFC playoffs, but they have not played Maye this year. They played Maye last year and enjoyed a ton of success, but this is a new year and Maye is a different quarterback, The game will come down to which quarterback takes better care of the football. C.J. Stroud’s performance doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence there.

Over/Under: Under 41.5

I have pounded the under all season and if I had played that bet in all 18 games I would come out a very rich man. The Patriots held the Chargers to three points and the Texans held the Steelers to six points. Odds are excellent that at least one of these two teams is going to struggle to move the football. Odds are good that it will be both teams. Obviously defensive and special teams touchdowns can always throw a monkey in the works, but this bet seems like the most obvious bet.