Will Mizzou’s forward-looking portal strategy work out in 2026?

Fans and analysts walk a fine line when it comes to the transfer portal, not unlike the one we’ve walked for years with the high school recruiting cycle.

On one hand, it’s easy to logically deduce that a recruiting class isn’t “won” on signing day or, in our case, by the end of the portal window on January 16. Ultimately, it’s the end of the upcoming season (and perhaps beyond) that tells about a staff’s work. Did they nail their scouts? Did they identify the talent with the right fit? Did they do enough to coax the potential out of the prospects? These are all things we know and, on some level, consider when we evaluate the end of a given recruiting period.

On the other hand, we have to make sense of the information we have on hand right away. For instance, we all know it’s good to land more four-and-five-star recruits than it is three stars. Not that there’s anything wrong with those guys in the latter group — Mizzou fans should be well aware of Gary Pinkel’s successes with three-star prospects — but the stats bear out that having more celebrated recruits on your team often yields better results on the field. There’s a direct correlation that we have to consider.

Stars matter a bit less in transfer portals as only a few players looking for new homes are bonafide blue-chippers. Instead, you’re often left with talented guys who fall into one of a few categories: your extremely young, talented guys who didn’t get as much playing time as they wanted right away; players at lower level schools who want a bigger spotlight; productive depth guys who think they can show out with more opportunities; players who have lost their starting roles and are looking for a fresh start; or some combination of the three. I

t’s here where coaches earn their money in the portal. And, to this point, it’s an area of evaluation where Eli Drinkwitz has flourished. Just look at last year’s team. Where are the Tigers without Ahmad Hardy? Zion Young? Josiah Trotter? Keagen Trost? It’s easy to land players like Kevin Coleman and Damon Wilson and say, “we got better,” because those are guys that succeeded everywhere they went. But not every staff can take two first-year transfers and turn them into All-Americans. Or NFL draft picks. Eli Drinkwitz still has faults, but his exceptional record in the portal isn’t one of them.

Which gets us to this year’s class, one that has puzzled me a bit since the beginning. With the knowledge that more could happen in the coming days, the staff’s approach to the portal this season feels… different. Mizzou isn’t necessarily bringing in a bad class. They’re 21st in overall team ranking at 247 sports, 19th if you sort by the average player rating. And they’ve brought in some extremely exciting players as part of that class. Robert Woodyard, Jr. should continue the Tigers’ rich NFL pipeline, while Austin Simmons brings a sterling reputation and a high ceiling with him. Josh Atkins, Luke Work and Horatio Fields are veterans who bring a lot of experience to the offense. Young players like Naeshaun Montgomery and JaDon Blair represent what could be a bright future.

But for all of the good things you can point out about this class, I think two things stand out most clearly.

First, this transfer class has an eye to the future rather than the present. For a program that seemingly has its sights on contending for the College Football Playoff every season, a program that just made its head coach one of the richest in the country and hired not one but two former blue-blood offensive coordinators to its staff, that’s a bit of a stunner. And that’s not to say the staff doesn’t believe the players in this class won’t make a difference on the field. But with the exception of Fields, Atkins, Woodyard and QB Nick Evers, every player in the class has multiple years of eligibility remaining. And none of them — no offense, guys, I’m behind you 100 percent — have produced at a level where you might think the NFL is one year away. Instead, the staff has prioritized players who can grow into core pieces for the program, guys who might be more likely to shine in 2027 than in 2026.

Second, the class is missing a headliner. You can make a case that Austin Simmons, the once-starting QB for a team that just made a deep playoff run, is that guy. But can anyone in black and gold really make the case that he’s the nailed-on starter for next year? Or is he meant to give Matt Zollers one hell of a run for the job, the best man taking the role by the reins? That’s not a bad way to set up your most important position on the field, but it also doesn’t constitute a stamp of 100% confidence on the transfer report card. And sure, we go back to the argument that transfer classes are won in the coming season (see: Hardy, Ahmad or Trost, Keagen.) But in 2025, the Tigers added surefire star power in Damon Wilson and Kevin Coleman. In 2024, they nabbed Cayden Green and Darris Smith (among others.) Hell even we knew in 2023 that Cam’Ron Johnson and Theo Wease, Jr. were going to be major players for the Tigers.

And while we can say with some certainty that guys like Woodyard and Atkins will definitely be starters in 2026, can we say that with confidence about anyone else in the class? Again, that’s not to denigrate them as players. It’s more to emphasize that, for the purposes of 2026, this class looks to be a little light on immediate impact.

And the thing is, we know that’s not exactly by choice. Mizzou hosted some of the biggest names in the portal and has continued to recruit them throughout the process. James Smith and Qua Russaw were on campus and leaning Mizzou’s way before ultimately committing to Ohio State. Wendell Gregory was in Columbia before finding a home in Manhattan. Wyatt Young had a Mizzou offer and Jamal Roberts was practically begging Chase Hendricks to come Mizzou’s way before they shipped off to Oklahoma State and California, respectively. We know Eli Drinkwitz likes to fish for the biggest prizes. And whether its a case of he didn’t get bites, didn’t have the cash or, perhaps, shifted his focus elsewhere, the 2026 class feels decidedly lacking in the way of star power.

And perhaps this column is still short-sighted. Going by the numbers, Mizzou has more roster spots to fill. And there are still plenty of good players in the portal, with a few days left to enter. Maybe a Jordan Seaton joins Mizzou’s offensive line or Mandrell Desir opts to be Mizzou’s next great pass-rusher. Maybe beyond all reasonable doubt, Damon Wilson II comes home.

But as the dust starts to settle on the latest group addition to Missouri football, it’s easy to wonder how this new strategy might pay dividends in the coming season or beyond. Hell, maybe this is the result of losing a bad bowl game and and a few weeks’ worth of public mourning from our favorite grump football analyst. Maybe we’re all just anxious for some earth-shattering good news to drop in our laps. Anything can happen in portal season, right?

Until then, let’s just keeping walking that line between excitement for the future and reality in the present.