Three Takeaways from Northwestern’s 77–75 Overtime Loss at Rutgers

Northwestern’s 77-75 overtime defeat at Rutgers on Sunday was less a new chapter and more a grim highlight reel of the season’s most persistent failures. Despite leading for over 37 minutes and getting a heroic performance from Nick Martinelli, the Wildcats (8-8, 0-5 Big Ten) collapsed in the final minutes of regulation and faltered in overtime, dropping their fourth game this season by five points or fewer.

The loss was a masterclass in how to lose a game you controlled, reinforcing every nagging doubt about this team’s ability to finish. Here are the three biggest takeaways from yet another heartbreaker on the road.

Nick Martinelli is Northwestern’s ferocious engine, yet his team can’t even manage to pump the gas

Are we really surprised? Is this even really a takeaway anymore if we end up saying it every game?

Forget the missed free throw in overtime. Forget the tough missed layups. The only reason Northwestern was even in position to lose in such close fashion was the effervescent Nick Martinelli. The senior forward delivered a career-high 34 points on 11-of-22 shooting, grabbed 12 rebounds and was a perfect 8-for-8 from the line in the second half. He scored nine of the team’s first 11 points, willed them to the finish line in regulation and was the singular focal point of Rutgers’ defense all night.

The problem is that he was also the only focal point, which has been the case for the latter half of the season. Arrinten Page (14 points) was the only other Wildcat in double figures. Starting guards Jayden Reid and Jordan Clayton combined for just 7 points on 3-of-11 shooting. This disparity allowed Rutgers to deploy aggressive help defense and double-teams on Martinelli in late-game situations without being punished by other Wildcats, directly contributing to his 1-of-5 shooting and a critical turnover in the game’s final three minutes.

When the game hung in the balance, the rest of the squad offered little to no relief, forcing Martinelli to shoulder an impossible load. He accounted for 45.3% of Northwestern’s total points, and his late misses on tough buckets were magnified because he literally HAD to make them in order to get the ‘Cats a W. That is obviously not sustainable, nor is this a novel development, but you certainly can’t blame him for appearing so frustrated right now.

Every season-long flaw was on full display in crunch time

Sunday’s loss was not an anomaly; it was an autopsy. Every weakness that has plagued Northwestern all year resurfaced, especially to seal their fate in the final five minutes. When the margin for error is zero, you cannot afford one of these issues, let alone all of them at once.

Rutgers secured a +7 rebounding margin (47–40), including 13 offensive rebounds that led to 11 second-chance points. This was particularly damaging in the final minute of regulation, where an offensive board extended a sequence that ended with a game-tying free throw.

Free throw failures were extremely costly as well. Northwestern’s 58.6% (17-of-29) performance contrasted sharply with Rutgers’ 70.4% (19-of-27). The Wildcats left 12 potential points at the line. In overtime alone, Reid, Singleton, Page and Martinelli all missed critical free throws that would have changed the game’s outcome.

For the season, Northwestern now ranks 13th in the Big Ten in free-throw percentage (68.1%) and 14th in rebounding margin (-3.4).

The perimeter inconsistency was also glaring, and the guys who theoretically could stop that bleeding have clearly not earned the play time. Northwestern started the game on fire from deep, hitting 4 of its first 5 three-point attempts to build an early double-digit lead. Jake West, who finished with a career-high nine points, knocked down three triples in the opening minutes. But that shooting touch disappeared almost entirely after the hot start. The Wildcats made just two of their final 13 attempts from beyond the arc. When they needed a spacer to relieve Martinelli, no one could reliably hit.

Once the threes stopped falling, Rutgers packed the paint and forced Northwestern into contested two-point looks. The Wildcats finished the game shooting 33.3% from three (a respectable number), but one that masks a tale of two halves. In a game decided by one possession, the inability to sustain perimeter scoring allowed Rutgers to climb back in and control the late-game tempo.

But the most glaring issue was Northwestern’s inability to contain Tariq Francis, who erupted for 30 points, 23 of which came in the second half and overtime. Francis repeatedly beat defenders off the dribble and got to the line, where he shot 8-of-9.

Add in all the other aforementioned issues and it’s easy to see why another lead slipped away. Northwestern’s defense, which has been a weakness all season, couldn’t get stops when it mattered, and its rebounding was outmuscled down the stretch.

A complete fourth-quarter and overtime collapse reveals a team incapable of winning

Northwestern’s failure was not a single mistake but a cascading sequence of errors across personnel, coaching and execution that transformed a likely road win into a devastating loss.

The Regulation Collapse (4:31 to 0:00): With a 62–56 lead, Northwestern’s offense produced five points on 1-of-4 shooting with two turnovers over its final seven possessions. Defensively, they allowed Rutgers to score on five of its final six possessions. The final sequence was a microcosm: up one with 9 seconds left, an inbound pass from Martinelli slipped through Jayden Reid’s hands (a turnover untouched by the defense, by the way). Rutgers then missed two shots but secured two offensive rebounds before Jordan Clayton fouled Darren Buchanan Jr. on a third attempt, sending a 59% free-throw shooter to the line to tie the game.

The Overtime Execution Failure: Northwestern’s offense in overtime scored 8 points on 2-of-9 shooting (22.2%) and 4-of-9 from the line (44.4%). They missed four separate free throws in the final 1:38. Defensively, they allowed Tariq Francis to score 7 of his 30 points in the extra period. The final possession, down two with 8 seconds left, was a disjointed full-court scramble ending in a Jake West driving layup that was cleanly blocked by Buchanan, a low-percentage attempt with no secondary action or designed play for Martinelli, who had just scored 34 points. For the ball not to go to him is frankly insulting.

The Systemic Issue: Rutgers led for only 5:01. Northwestern’s failure is systemic. They rank 365th nationally in KenPom’s “Luck” metric, a statistical measure of performance in close games. That is dead last in the entire country. This is not variance; it is a pattern of failing to get defensive stops, committing unforced turnovers, missing clutch free throws and deploying questionable late-game tactics. Until these fundamental execution failures are addressed, competitive efforts will continue to result in losses.

The Bottom Line

Each defeat follows a similar blueprint: a strong start, a standout Martinelli performance and critical mistakes in the final minutes. NU predictably fizzles out in pretty much every game at this point. That is not a norm you want to set, especially when you have the conference’s top scorer on your side. Sure, this team could just as easily be 4-1, but the key is that they are NOT. Something needs to change. Someone needs to step up. If not for the fans, if not for Collins, do it for Nick.