The calendar has turned, and horse racing has set its sight on the first weekend in May.
The calendar has turned, and horse racing has set its sight on the first weekend in May. The Derby is a mere 119 days away, and a day earlier Churchill Downs will host the Oaks.
The Santa Ynez was recently downgraded from a Grade 2 - as recently as 2022 - to a listed stakes this year, spending the previous two years as a Grade 3. It is much more an indictment on the field size than the quality of the winners; here’s to hoping the Santa Ynez can draw enough interest to once again be a graded stakes.
12 fillies have won the Ynez and gone onto win the Santa Anita Oaks; the last, however, was Bellafina in 2019. The Ynez still has a great history, and those dozen winners point to precisely this.
Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race 7 times - but not since 2022 - has 3 of the 5 runners. Let’s meet them, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re wagering in California, check out AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match for new customers up to $150!
The Santa Ynez. 7 furlongs, dirt. 3YO fillies. $100,000.
1. Revera. 10/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Sadler.
Revera was the winner of the Desi Arnez last out, the equivalent race to this one at Del Mar. She turned the tables on the Baffert-trained Himika, who went off as the overwhelming favorite. She’ll have to do something similar on the toteboard here: she’ll almost certainly be no better than 4th choice. She’s on the improve, and her sire, Lexitonian, was a sprint expert. I don’t think we’ll see much of her on the Oaks trail, but I like her chances to hit the board.
Comment: can hit the board.
2. Expolora. 1/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Explora is a welcome addition to this field, exiting a good 2nd-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She’s the class here, and should win. This should be a springboard to the Oaks trail, and should she win here, the buzz will be deserved.
Comment: most likely winner.
3. Himika. 5/2. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Himika is the other stakes winner in the field, having won the Anoakia at Santa Anita in October. Given her breeding, the connections appear to have thought she should be a distance horse; she clearly wants to sprint. With these obvious clues, she’s back in a spot like this, and should have a shot. I think she’s simply a step slower than Explora, and the 5/2 price is very unappealing in this balanced second tier.
Comment: toss for value.
4. Toaster. 10/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Toaster is a fascinating newcomer, winning her only race at Los Alamitos going 6 ½ furlongs. She’s a daughter of McKinzie, so the distance makes sense; she’ll have to take a major class step forward in order to compete with this group. I have her hitting the board.
Comment: will hit the board.
5. La Wally. 6/1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Mark Glatt.
Trainer Mark Glatt is throwing the blinkers on La Wally, who he clearly wants to be closer to the front of the pace. She was a good 3rd in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, and should pay worse than 6/1 by posttime. Getting back to 7 furlongs appears to be the right move; jockey Umberto Rispoli will need to be much quicker out of the gate than usual if he expects to win this one.
Comment: closing style doesn’t fit.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$5 Late Pick 3 ($40): 4,6 / 2 / 2,5,6,11. Good luck!
Category: General Sports
