The stakes of the 5-seed are even higher than you think

Do the Los Angeles Rams want the 5-seed because they would rather face the winner of the NFC South than the Bears or Eagles in the wild card round? Sure, that’s something, but it’s not the main thing. Here’s a better reason to get the 5-seed:

The 5-seed could host the 7-seed in the divisional round of the playoffs.

That’s why the Rams should be rooting for the Seahawks to beat the 49ers on Saturday, which is what opens the door for Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford to be the 5-seed if they beat the Cardinals on Sunday.

It doesn’t just give L.A. an easier path to the second round of the playoffs, it also means that the Rams could have an easier path to the NFC Championship game. It could even leave the door open for the Rams to host one — if not two — playoff games in the best case scenario.

Which is relatively more likely in 2025 than it has been in the history of the NFL playoffs:

• The 5-seed will be an NFC West team with at least 12 wins
• The 6-seed will be an NFC West team with at least 11 wins
• The 7-seed will be the Green Bay Packers, most likely at the Chicago Bears

We could see all three wild card teams win their opening playoff game this season.

We should at least see one and there’s a decent chance that we will see two.

2 vs 7

The Packers beat the Bears in Week 14 and lost in overtime in Week 16. Green Bay lost to the Eagles, but only by a score of 10-7.

With a healthy-ish roster, the Packers could easily win their first round game. This is not an inexperienced 7-seed. In fact, the Packers are almost always the 7-seed under Matt LaFleur and they won a playoff game as a 7-seed as recently as 2023.

3 vs 6

The most likely 3-seed is the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that had a three-game losing streak less than a month ago. The Rams were blowing out the Eagles in Philly until a late collapse and a blocked field goal.

The Eagles can beat anybody, but they can lose to anybody including the Giants and Cowboys.

If the 3-seed is the Bears, they might be one of the most overrated division winners in recent memory. The 6-seed, whether that’s the Rams or 49ers, is a better team than the Eagles and the Bears. We just saw San Francisco beat Chicago on Sunday.

4 vs 5

The Bucs have lost 7 of their last 8 games but could host a playoff game in a week if they beat the Panthers and the Saints beat the Falcons.

The Panthers haven’t won consecutive games since mid-October.

“The winner of the NFC South is a relatively bad team” doesn’t need to be explained. The 5-seed will be favored to win the game, no matter who it is from the NFC West.

Divisional Round scenarios

If the 2-3-4 teams win:

Well, then the 4-seed goes to the 1-seed and none of this matters.

If the 2-3-5 teams win:

The 5-seed goes to the 1-seed. Similarly, if the 2-6-4 seeds win, then the 6-seed goes to the 1-seed.

If the 2-6-5 teams win:

Now the 5-seed is going to the 2-seed instead of the 1-seed. The 1-seed will be well rested and heavily favored to beat ANYBODY, whether that’s the Seahawks or the 49ers.

So if the Rams are the 6-seed, then they’re going to the 1-seed in round two. If the Rams are the 5-seed, there’s a decent chance they’re going to Philly or Chicago in Round 2, a very winnable game. Same situation if the Packers win their first game and the 6-seed loses.

If the 7-6-5 teams win:

If all three wild card teams win, then the 5-seed hosts the 6-seed in the second round. And the Packers go to the 1-seed.

So that also means that if the Packers pull a second-round upset, then they’re on the road in the NFC Championship game no matter who survives.

It means that even if the 6-seed wins out, then the 6-seed hosts an NFC Championship. However, it’s more likely that a 5-seed would get there than a 6-seed because not only are they going to Carolina or Tampa Bay in round 1, it also means that they’re not going on the road in round two if all three wild card teams win.

It’s not that outlandish to suggest that both NFC West wild cards and the Packers will all win their wild card games. It’s actually pretty conceivable.

So yeah, there are plenty of other reasons to try and beat the Cardinals — pride, getting good at football again, playing Carolina or TB (if the Seahawks beat the 49ers) in the first round — but if you look past the first round then it gets even better than that: Long-term outlook, the Rams should want the 5-seed because the NFC playoffs are going to be wide open and unpredictable.

So you’d rather increase your odds of success as much as possible.