Week 18 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Ravens at Steelers has intrigue

Let’s be honest: The final game of the NFL season isn’t the greatest matchup.

The Baltimore Ravens are 8-8 and one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers are just 9-7 and have been inconsistent all season, including last week when they lost to the Browns as favorites, with a chance to clinch the AFC North. Now the Steelers host the Ravens in the final game of the regular season on Sunday night, with the winner getting the AFC North title and the loser headed to the offseason.

While we’ve seen better Ravens-Steelers matchups, not many have had more drama attached.

The future of the losing coach will be questioned (maybe the winning coach too, depending on what happens in the playoffs). It could be Aaron Rodgers’ final game in the NFL. There will be a lot of criticism of Steelers receiver DK Metcalf for getting himself suspended for the final two games of the season if that costs Pittsburgh a playoff spot. Lamar Jackson has had a bumpy season with plenty of controversy, and while it seems he’ll play through a back injury that kept him out last week, will he be anywhere his usual self? He hasn’t been all season. There could end up being questions about his future too.

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM, which is a bit surprising. They are just 6-10 vs. the spread this season but oddsmakers haven’t given up on them. The Steelers just beat the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 14. Derrick Henry had a monster game last week, but it’s not as easy as giving him 36 carries again this week. That’s a lot to ask, even for Henry. Maybe the Ravens win, but anything over a field goal on the road seems like a bit much. Whoever wins, the real fireworks might start for the losing team after the game.

Scott Taetsch via Getty Images

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 18 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:

Panthers (+2.5) over Buccaneers

Based on the last eight weeks, there’s no way the Buccaneers should be favored over practically anyone. Well, except the Raiders. They’re 1-7 since their bye with a -52 point differential. The only win was a three-point home win against the Cardinals, who are 1-13 since Week 2. The Panthers just beat the Buccaneers two weeks ago. Carolina isn’t a very good team either, but trusting the Buccaneers seems foolish.

Seahawks (-1.5) over 49ers

The first game Saturday has important stakes, but is between two deeply flawed teams. This is the main event. The Seahawks are 13-3, the 49ers are 12-4 and the winner gets the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. It’s hard to go against the 49ers, whose offense has been unstoppable lately. But the Seahawks are the better overall team, have a great defense and are 14-2 on the road in the Mike Macdonald era. This will be a great game. This pick is a slight lean to the superior team.

Saints (+3.5) over Falcons

Now we get to the Sunday games and figuring out who’s even playing, and for what. That’s the riddle of Week 18. The Falcons seem like they’re playing for something meaningful because it has been mentioned all week that their game could ultimately decide the NFC South, but they probably don’t care much if the Buccaneers or Panthers win the division. And the Falcons get a bump from looking great on Monday night with everyone watching. But the Saints have been playing quite well long after everyone stopped paying attention. They’ll compete.

Bengals (-7.5) over Browns

Shedeur Sanders has been reasonable for a late-round rookie quarterback, but the Browns have also failed to score more than 13 points in three of his last five starts. The Bengals have put up at least 32 points in four of their last five games, with a weird shutout loss to the Ravens mixed in. I’ll trust Cincinnati’s offense.

Packers (+7.5) over Vikings

Matt LaFleur learned his lesson. He played starters in a mostly meaningless Week 18 game last season and Jordan Love got banged up and Christian Watson suffered a season-ending injury. Green Bay has the No. 7 seed clinched and LaFleur said he’ll sit some starters. The players out there want to impress, however, and it’s way too many points to lay for a Vikings offense that produced just three net passing yards last week.

Giants (+3.5) over Cowboys

Dak Prescott will start the game, but will he finish? Dallas has some offensive line injuries, which could cause coach Brian Schottenheimer to pull Prescott early. The Giants might benefit from losing, due to draft position, but we saw last week that the players and coaching staff don’t care much about that.

Titans (+12.5) over Jaguars

The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South with a win and the 3-13 Titans are playing for nothing, right? Don’t be so sure. Playing spoiler to ruin the Jaguars’ chances at a division title would be a great way for Tennessee to enter the offseason. We saw Cleveland fight hard to beat the Steelers in a similar situation last week. And Tennessee has fought hard in the last half of the season. This one might not be easy for Jacksonville.

Texans (-10) over Colts

I don’t question the Colts’ desire in this game. But rookie quarterback Riley Leonard making his first NFL start vs. Houston’s defense is a rough assignment. And the Texans have to play hard for two reasons: They can still win the AFC South if the Titans upset the Jaguars, and if that doesn’t happen getting the fifth seed (and the chance to play a weak AFC North winner) is still worth playing to win.

Bills (-7) over Jets

Let’s run this back from last week’s picks: The Jets have lost six of seven, and the losses have been by 13, 13, 24, 28, 23 and 32 points. Josh Allen is probably playing just one series to keep his consecutive games streak alive. But I’m not taking the Jets against anyone, even the Bills’ backups.

Bears (-3) over Lions

The difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed in the NFC probably matters. You’d rather play the depleted Packers rather than any NFC West team. The Bears get the No. 2 seed and a third game against the Packers with a win. The Lions won’t quit (this is a Dan Campbell production, after all) but true motivation will be hard to come by.

Chargers (+12.5) over Broncos

This is why assuming a team has nothing to play for is often misguided. Trey Lance will start at QB for the Chargers and he knows this is a huge showcase. The same goes for any Chargers backup who is replacing a starter. The Broncos don’t blow teams out, and the large spread is an overreaction to Justin Herbert sitting.

Raiders (+5.5) over Chiefs

This is one weird game. Would I put it past the Chiefs to secretly not be too upset if the Raiders win, perhaps pushing them out of the No. 1 overall pick and the quarterback Las Vegas prefers in the draft? We saw last week that the Raiders really want that top pick, and even if the players on the field don’t care about the draft they’re not good enough (especially with Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby being put on IR) that it matters. I’ll just throw up my hands and take the points.

Rams (-7.5) over Cardinals

The line has moved from Rams -9.5 to -7.5. Bettors must believe that the Rams will sit starters, regardless of what Sean McVay said after last week’s game. If the Rams have a shot at the No. 5 seed (they get it with a 49ers loss combined with a win over Arizona), do they play to win? I think so. It would be much better to play the NFC South champ than the Eagles or Bears and McVay knows that. However, Arizona is probably the better side of the Seahawks lose on Saturday, which would lock the Rams into the sixth seed.

Dolphins (+10.5) over Patriots

Don’t assume the Dolphins won’t play hard just because they were eliminated from the playoff race long ago. Miami has won four of its last six.

Eagles (-4) over Commanders

It seems like the Eagles will sit starters, which they should. I’d still rather have Tanner McKee and the Eagles backups than the shell of this Commanders team.

Last week: 8-8

Season to date: 127-124-6