Georgia will kick off in the Sugar Bowl tomorrow for the second season in a row with Gunner Stockton under center. But boy is this a different team and different situation. Whereas last year’s Georgia team was hoping to manufacture enough points to scrape by against a solid Notre Dame defense, and hoping to slow […]
Georgia will kick off in the Sugar Bowl tomorrow for the second season in a row with Gunner Stockton under center. But boy is this a different team and different situation. Whereas last year’s Georgia team was hoping to manufacture enough points to scrape by against a solid Notre Dame defense, and hoping to slow down the Irish run game enough to pull out a win, this team is a solid 6.5 point favorite according to FanDuel over an Ole Miss team that they beat by 8 ten weeks ago with a different coaching staff.
I think the numbers favor the Athenians. But I don’t know that all the numbers are in their favor, or that they’re as tilted as some would think. Here are a few of the stats that I expect to tell the story in New Orleans.
11.7. That’s the average number of points the Georgia Bulldog defense has given up in the six games since the 43-35 come from behind victory over Ole Miss on October 18th. And the Red and Black haven’t surrendered more than 10 points in any of their last four contests. Since getting a pair of fourth quarter stops against the Rebels Glenn Schumann’s defense has been on a completely different level. Like poor, Ralphie in A Christmas Story, it is as if they just snapped and went from bullied to bully. Let’s just hope Mom doesn’t come to great things up before they give Farkus the beating he has coming.
336. The number of receiving yards Colbie Young has this season, despite missing every game since the last time these two teams played. One of the things we saw last season is that there’s actually a little bit of advantage to be gained by getting players with fresh legs back late in the playoffs. Most college football players will tell you they haven’t been “100%” since some time during the summer of their sophomore year of high school. But if Young can come back sharp after the ten week layoff he could be an absolute difference maker against this Ole Miss secondary that doesn’t have the depth to cover 4 legit big play receivers on every snap.
11:2. That’s Trinidad Chambliss’s touchdown/interception ratio since the regular season matchup. He’s also completing 69.8% of his passes since Georgia held him to his lowest completion percentage of the season (52.8%). There’s been a comforting narrative coming into this one that the Bulldog defense is a different beast than when these teams first met, and that’s absolutely true. But it’s also accurate to say that Chambliss has grown into his role at the helm of the Rebel Black Bear offense since we last saw him.
15.5. That’s how many points per game the Powder Blue defense has surrendered since last seeing the Red and Black. That number was 22.6 through the Georgia game (though admittedly that 43 points skews the numbers a bit) and the competition was in some instances a little iffy. Take away the goose egg they procured in a 49-0 blowout against the Citadel and you can make the argument that the Ole Miss defense hasn’t really gotten better since Georgia scored on every drive against them in October except the one to kneel out the game.
34. That’s the number of points I’m predicting Georgia scores. I expect the Dawgs to come out and establish the run and test how physical this Ole Miss defense is going to be. And while I expect some rust after a long layoff, I don’t think the Ole Miss offense has more than four touchdowns in it against this Red and Black defense that has found its footing. Final score prediction: Georgia 34, Ole Miss 27.
Go ‘Dawgs!!!
Category: General Sports
