Oregon football roundtable for CFP game vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Oregon Ducks have played in a lot of big games this year, but none have been as big as the one they're kicking off on New Year's Day against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup will bring a clash between two of the best teams in the nation, with a pair of offenses that stand as the most explosive in all of college football, and two defenses that are extremely good at limiting opposing offenses.

Talk about good on good.

In a week of really strong playoff matchups, the Ducks vs. Red Raiders stands as one of the most intriguing, and the game with the lowest point spread, as Oregon is currently favored by 2.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

As we head into this game, we've broken down the matchup, looked at some top players for Texas Tech, and tried to preview some keys to victory for Oregon.

Now it's time to make some predictions.

To preview the game, we go through our weekly roundtable with the writers from Ducks Wire to offer our opinions and predictions for what's to come. Here’s another edition of the roundtable.

Defining Season-Long Success

Question: We’re finally back where Oregon’s season ended a year ago: The College Football Playoff Quarterfinal. The Ducks have a CFP win under their belt, but there’s a sense that for this season to be considered a success, they at least need to win one more game and reach the semi-finals. Do you agree?

Zachary Neel: Yea, that feels like a lot of pressure to put on one game, and considering how talented this team is and how strong of a season they've had so far, it feels wrong to say that it wouldn't go down as a success should they lose this game. If that does happen, though, I think the overwhelming sentiment will be that this team didn't reach it's full potential. That's just the nature of the beast now when you reach that top tier of programs in college football. Oregon should be playing for a CFP semifinal or championship just about every year now, and this season is no exception.

Don Smalley:Definitely. Oregon has to advance further in the playoff than it did last season or the Ducks will have the moniker of not being able to win in a big game in January. Oregon is good enough to win it all, but petering out in the quarterfinal against a team you should probably beat would not be good.

Paul White: I agree, especially after how the last game ended. They’ve expended a lot of energy to get back to this point, so it would be a huge disappointment for the result to be the same.

Bjorn Bergstrom:  I think for this season to be considered a success, they’d have to reach the national title game — if not win it all. Assuming Indiana beats Alabama and Oregon beats Texas Tech, it’s hard for me to see the Ducks losing twice to the Hoosiers in the same season as a success, regardless of reaching the semis.

Texas Tech's Strength

Question: By any metric, Texas Tech is a very good team on both sides of the ball, and they’ve put up some great stats this year. When looking at them from a bird’s-eye view, which unit gives you the most concern vs. the Ducks, offense or defense?

Zachary Neel: I'm definitely more concerned about Tech's defense than their offense. I don't think they have faced a team as good as Oregon thus far, and while their offense has put up some great statistics, Behren Morton isn't someone who scares me. Defensively, they have one of the best front-sevens in the nation, and it's going to be fascinating to watch them go up against the Ducks' offensive line, which by all means deserved to win the Joe Moore award.

Don Smalley:The offense. I think the Duck offense will score its share of points. But that second half against James Madison gave me cause for concern. Oregon has to play better on defense, or the Red Raiders will go up and down the field. Just playing to get by won't cut it here.

Paul White: I’m definitely more concerned about the defense. As good as the offense is, there are no superstars to game plan for, although the unit as a whole runs like a well-oiled machine.

Bjorn Bergstrom: It’s definitely their defense for me, which has stars that rival the Ducks’ defensive stars, especially in the front seven. Edge rushers David Bailey and Romello Height are far and away the best pass-rushing duo in the nation, while linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is seemingly always around the ball and forcing turnovers. The offense is clearly good, but I’d say their stats are more a result of playing in the Big 12.

Judging Tech's Offense

Question: Looking at the Texas Tech offense, who are you game-planning against the most if you’re Oregon going into this game?

Zachary Neel: For me, it's the receivers who will garner the most attention. I know that Tech has a strong running game with two great backs, but I don't think their offensive line is up to snuff against Oregon's DL, personally. However, they have a trio of WRs who are very big, and a threat at tight end who can help spread out a secondary. The Red Raiders thrive on explosive plays, so making sure to keep Morton in check and not let any of the pass-catchers break loos is going to be a major key.

Don Smalley:The two running backs, Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams. If the Ducks can hold those two down, it will cause Texas Tech to go through the air more. Although their passing attack is pretty good, it's not good enough to consistently convert on third-and-long. Stopping those two running backs will set the Duck defense up for success and get off the field sooner rather than later.

Paul White: If there’s any player the Ducks should game plan for, it’s Behren Morton. He has three separate 300-yard passing games this season, and one of them went for more than 400. He can single-handedly ruin the day for the Ducks if they aren’t careful.

Bjorn Bergstrom: The two-headed monster in the backfield. Cameron Dickey is the headliner as the bruiser, while J’Koby Williams is the speedster, with the duo combining for nearly 1,900 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns. The run game opens up the pass game for the Red Raiders, so limiting those two and making Behren Morton throw the ball should be the priority.

Judging Tech's Defense

Question: Same question, but for the defense?

Zachary Neel: It's all about that front-seven for me, which is where the majority of Tech's defensive stars are. Between David Bailey and Romello Height on the edges, and Jacob Rodriguez plus Ben Roberts at the LB spot, this game is going to be won or lost in the trenches. I fully trust Oregon's offensive line to get a push and be able to move some bodies, so as long as the Ducks can lean on the run and try to stay balanced through this game, I will remain confident.

Don Smalley:Oregon needs to gameplan against the Texas Tech pass rush. Protecting Dante Moore would go a long way toward offensive success. A quarterback under pressure tends to panic and throw the ball for an interception, something the Red Raiders excel at. I'm guessing Moore is the best QB the Red Raiders have faced this season and they're going to try to pressure him some because if they let Moore stand in the pocket and throw downfield, he'll pick them apart, and the Ducks will rout them. So pass protection is paramount.

Paul White: It has to be Jacob Rodriguez. Any time you’re going against a Heisman Trophy candidate, it feels like that has to be the person you plan your day around.

Bjorn Bergstrom:  I’m tempted to say Jacob Rodriguez, but he’s always around the football — there’s not much game-planning to stop that. Rather, I’d go with the pass-rushing duo of David Bailey and Romello Height, who’ve combined for 22.5 sacks this season. They both have game-wrecking abilities, so making sure to chip and account for them as much as possible is of utmost importance.

The College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Question: Broader College Football Playoff question: We’ve got some great matchups this week in the quarterfinals. If you had to pick one for an upset to take place, where are you going?

Zachary Neel: I'm tempted to say Miami and Ohio State, just becuase I still don't quite know what Julian Sayin and Ohio State will look like in a massive game, but I think the Buckeyes are still talented enough to win that game. Ole Miss vs. Georgia intrigues me because of their past matchups this season, as well. Ultimately, though, my eye is on Indiana and Alabama. I'm not predicting an upset, but if someone from the future told me that Indiana struggled with rust and didn't play quite as well on the big stage — much like Oregon last year — and a hot Bama team coming off an impressive first-round victory took advantage, I wouldn't be surprised.

Don Smalley:Although I don't trust Mario Cristobal in a big spot, I think Indiana gave Miami a blueprint on how to beat Ohio State. Alabama is too inconsistent to beat Indiana and given the turmoil at Ole Miss, it might be too much to overcome to beat Georgia.

Paul White: I think there’s a chance that Miami could upset Ohio State. Carson Beck has had some meltdowns this season, but he has also risen to the occasion in some of the biggest moments. If he can limit the turnovers and be efficient, then he has a chance to pull off the upset.

Bjorn Bergstrom:  I don’t see Ohio State or Indiana falling, so I’m left with Ole Miss over Georgia — which, I don’t hate the Rebels’ chances. They lost to the Bulldogs in a shootout in October, and I’m skeptical that Georgia could score 43 points again. If running back Kewan Lacy is healthy, I like the Rebels’ chances of pulling off the upset.

Gambling Corner

Question: Gambling Corner: You get $100 to spread across the point spread (Oregon -2.5), and the over/under (52.5 points). How are you allocating your funds?

Zachary Neel: I don't have a great feeling for the over/under in this one, because you have two great offenses and two great defenses. However, I do really feel confident in Oregon's ability to win. Give me all $100 on the Ducks to cover.

Don Smalley:$40 on the Ducks covering and the other $60 on the OVER.

Paul White: I would put $20 on the spread for the Ducks and $80 on the under. I think both of these defenses will rise to the occasion in this game.

Bjorn Bergstrom: Normally, I stay away from close spreads like this, but I see Oregon winning by more than just a field goal. As far as the point total, it’s really difficult to get a gauge on whether this is going to be a game played in the 20’s or 30’s points-wise, so I’ll stay away from that. Give me all $100 on Oregon -2.5.

Final Score Prediction

Question: Final Score Prediction: Who wins the game?

Zachary Neel: Give me Oregon, 28-23.

Don Smalley:For some reason, I think the Ducks roll here. Oregon 37, Texas Tech 17

Paul White: I have the Ducks pulling out a close, defensive battle 24-21.

Bjorn Bergstrom: 27-21, Oregon. A rematch with Indiana in the Peach Bowl will be on the horizon.

Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon football predictions for CFP game vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders