Miami enters the CFP matchup as nearly a big underdog, but bowl history upsets suggests Canes shouldn't be counted out.
The No. 10 seed Hurricanes face the No. 2 seed Buckeyes as 9.5-point underdogs in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve, marking the largest spread of any of this season’s CFP quarterfinals (although Ole Miss and Alabama are both touchdown dogs). For a Miami program looking to recapture past glory, the odds are daunting against the defending national champions.
CFP Games Have Mostly Gone to Chalk
Since the CFP expanded to the expanded 12-team format, favorites have dominated. Notably, through the first round of the last two years, all favorites have won – with Miami’s mild upset over Texas A&M this year providing the only hint of chaos. Last year, nearly every game went according to the Vegas odds. This year, the first round looked the same.
Yet college football’s postseason history is littered with memorable upsets that remind us why the games are played on the field and not on paper. From the BCS era through today’s College Football Playoff, underdogs have authored some of the sport’s most unforgettable moments in high-stakes bowl games.
Historic New Year’s Six and BCS Bowl Upsets
2014 Fiesta Bowl: UCF 52, Baylor 42
Spread: Baylor -16.5
Years before they were crowned national champion in 2017, UCF’s victory over Baylor stands as the biggest underdog win in BCS bowl history by point spread. The Knights, representing the American Athletic Conference in their first BCS appearance, were dismissed as unworthy of playing with college football’s elite. The upset proved that Group of Five programs could compete with the sport’s powerhouses and helped pave the way for the eventual College Football Playoff expansion – but may have set an improper precedent related to that Group of Five “power”.
2013 Sugar Bowl: Louisville 33, Florida 23
Spread: Florida -14.5
Another Florida team, this time floundering. Louisville’s upset of fourth-ranked Florida represented one of the largest point-spread victories in BCS history, exceeded only by UCF’s win the following year. QB Teddy Bridgewater completed 20 of 32 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns to earn Sugar Bowl MVP honors, while the Gators’ Jeff Driskel threw three interceptions. The victory gave the Big East Conference a signature win in its final season before the league’s football reorganization. Louisville got the victory over Miami that made this a question, but it’s always nice to see the Gators struggle.
2022 Fiesta Bowl: TCU 51, Michigan 45
Spread: Michigan -7.5
In recent CFP play, this game provided a semifinal instant classic where TCU stunned second-ranked Michigan in a 96-point shootout that ranks among the greatest bowl games ever played. The Horned Frogs, who entered the CFP with 200-1 preseason odds, built a 21-6 halftime lead and survived a furious Michigan rally. The victory validated first-year coach Sonny Dykes’ program and proved that teams outside college football’s traditional blue bloods could compete for championships.
2007 Fiesta Bowl: Boise State 43, Oklahoma 42 (OT)
Spread: Oklahoma -7.5
The 2007 Fiesta Bowl is widely regarded as one of the greatest college football games ever played and became a watershed moment for mid-major programs. Undefeated Boise State faced college football royalty in Oklahoma, and few outside of Idaho gave the Broncos a chance. After Oklahoma erased a 28-10 deficit to take a 35-28 lead with just over a minute remaining, Boise State executed a hook-and-ladder play on fourth-and-18 to tie the game with seven seconds left. In overtime, after Adrian Peterson scored on a 25-yard touchdown run on Oklahoma’s first play, the Broncos responded with a trick play touchdown and then won the game on a Statue of Liberty play for the two-point conversion. The upset helped accelerate momentum toward a College Football Playoff system and proved that teams from non-power conferences belonged on college football’s biggest stages. Again, however, the non-power conferences have since faded in this competitive format.
1978 Orange Bowl: Arkansas 31, Oklahoma 6
Spread: Oklahoma -24
Taking place right in Miami at the start right before the Division I Football split, this remains one of the most stunning upsets in bowl history. First-year Arkansas coach Lou Holtz suspended three offensive starters before the game for team violations, including leading rusher Ben Cowins, causing the point spread to balloon from 18 points to 24. Arkansas climbed to third in the final polls and the game remains a legendary moment in Razorback football history.
Miami’s Path to an Upset
While Miami hasn’t been back to a New Year’s Six equivalent since 2017 but the Hurricanes do have history with Ohio State in major bowl games. The two programs last met in the postseason during the controversial 2003 Fiesta Bowl for the BCS National Championship, where Ohio State defeated Miami 31-24 in double overtime on a disputed pass interference call in overtime. That game altered the trajectory of both programs for the next two decades. Interestingly and conversely to this matchup, Miami was a heavy favorite in that game (and were upset).
Miami enters having stifled Texas A&M 10-3 in a first-round defensive struggle, ranking sixth nationally in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game. If the Hurricanes are to pull off the upset, their elite defensive line will need to pressure Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and slow down a Buckeyes’ offense that struggled in their Big Ten Championship loss to Indiana. The blueprint is there as they will need to eliminate the aerial attack consisting of Miami native Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.
As the 2025 College Football Playoff continues, Miami’s underdog status against Ohio State evokes the spirit of these historic upsets. While the Buckeyes are heavily favored and seeking to become the first team to win back-to-back national championships in the 12-team playoff era, the Hurricanes can take inspiration from Louisville, UCF, Boise State, and Arkansas – programs that proved that on any given day, preparation, belief, and execution can overcome even the longest odds.
Previous Miami teams brought the cocky swagger. And while Miami has a right to be confident after the first round win, the current spread creates reason to humble until proven otherwise.
GO CANES!
Category: General Sports
