NFL Week 17 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including a trio of (bad) Christmas games

The NFL tried its best for Christmas. But when you put together a schedule before May, it’s hard to predict what will happen by the end of the NFL season.

There are three games on Christmas, and all of them looked like good matchups in the spring. Quarterback injuries and disappointing teams led to all three games having almost no impact on the playoff picture. Instead of Patrick Mahomes and Jayden Daniels, we might get Chris Oladokun and Josh Johnson. But, we’ll still watch. And probably bet on it too.

Johnnie Izquierdo via Getty Images

Here are the top betting storylines going into Week 17 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:

A massive Chiefs underdog

While we all understand what is going on with the Chiefs, the spread for their Christmas game is still startling.

The Chiefs are 13-point home underdogs against the Broncos. The Chiefs haven’t always been one of the NFL’s best teams, but it has been almost 50 years since Kansas City was this big of a home underdog.

Again, it’s understandable. The Chiefs aren’t just down Patrick Mahomes, but his backup Gardner Minshew II is on injured reserve with a knee injury too. Chris Oladokun got his first significant snaps in the NFL last week against the Titans, and the Chiefs lost to Tennessee 26-9. Meanwhile the Broncos are the one team playing on Christmas with something tangible to play for (technically the Lions are still mathematically alive too), as they try to chase the AFC’s No. 1 seed. This is not the matchup anyone expected.

The other Christmas games

Cowboys-Commanders is a pretty good traditional rivalry, but it doesn’t have much juice this season. The Cowboys are 6-8-1, the Commanders are 4-11 and both are eliminated from the playoffs. For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels has been shut down and Marcus Mariota is dealing with hand and quad injuries and his status is uncertain. The Cowboys are 7-point favorites for this ugly game.

At least the 8-7 Lions are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. And the 7-8 Vikings are playing hard lately. But Minnesota has questions about quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has a right hand injury that forced him out of the Vikings’ Week 16 game. Max Brosmer would start if McCarthy can’t. That’s why the Lions are a 6-point road favorite.

Rams still Super Bowl favorites

The Seahawks’ massive comeback win over the Rams in Week 16 didn’t flip the Super Bowl favorite.

The Rams are still favored to win the Super Bowl even though Seattle is favored to win the NFC West. The Rams are +450 to win the championship, while the Seahawks are second at +600. That differs from the division odds. Seattle is -105 to win the NFC West and the Rams are +200. The 49ers (+350) are still very much alive to win the division too.

Not many tight divisional races

With two games left, there isn’t much intrigue for division championship races.

The Eagles have clinched the NFC East. Among the other seven divisions, five have large favorites: Steelers (-1100), Jaguars (-550), Patriots (-550), Broncos (-300) and Bears (-1000). That leaves two real division races. The NFC South has the Buccaneers at -160 and the Panthers at +135. The Bucs win the division if they beat the Dolphins this week (they are 5.5-point favorites) and the Panthers at home in Week 18. And then there’s the three-team race in the NFC West, which could come down to the Seahawks-49ers game in the finale.

But in general, it doesn’t look like there’s much playoff drama with two games left.

The 1st overall draft pick bowl

The Giants-Raiders game on Sunday has more intrigue that most of the slate. That’s because they are the only two 2-13 teams in the NFL. The loser of this game will have a great shot to get the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. All they’ll have to do is also lose the finale, and these two teams are adept at losing. The Raiders are a 1-point favorite over the Giants. It’s the rare game where both fanbases will be rooting hard for the other team.