NFL MVP: Our pick for Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, or the field

With only two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, it’s time to talk seriously about the MVP award. An up-and-down season, resplendent with randomness has changed the course of predicting this award numerous times during the season. We went through Baker Mayfield talk, Sam Darnold chatter, and Jonathan Taylor chatter, before ending up here. There’s now a clear-cut favorite, and an intriguing field — all of whom are deserving of the award in their own ways.

Today Football Court debates whether or not the NFL MVP in 2025 is the odds-on favorite Matthew Stafford, or if someone from the field is more deserving of the award.

The case for Matthew Stafford

Represented by James Dator

I’m a sucker for a good story, ladies and gentleman. I love the idea of Drake Maye winning the MVP in only his second season, returning the Patriots to prominence in the process — or Trevor Lawrence finally putting it all together and turning the Jaguars into the AFC’s best team. Those are both wonderful storylines from the 2025 season, but that’s all they should be: Storylines.

When the dust settles and we truly look at this year, there’s one man who deserves the award over everyone else, and that’s Matthew Stafford.

There are a multitude of reasons why this is the case, but let’s look from the top down at this thing. Stafford is the NFL’s best quarterback this year, best by a staggering margin, and we know MVP is an award given to the No. 1 quarterback in a season. It’s just that simple. Stafford has shined at a time where every passer in the league has struggled to one degree or another. This is a player who has weathered the storm of defensive adjustment and put up throwback numbers to an era where it wasn’t uncommon for QBs to throw for 300-plus yards-per-game.

It’s critical to re-iterate Stafford’s projected numbers as we close out the year, because they’re just that impressive: 4,736 yards, 65.7% completion, 45 TDs, 6 INTs — a passer rating of 112.1

Nobody in the league is touching this. These numbers are set to give Stafford 17 more touchdowns than Drake Maye with fewer interceptions. Comparing Trevor Lawrence to him is laughable, who’s poised to have double the number of interceptions and not break the 4,000 yard mark.

There’s also the perception element to all this. We assumed the Rams would be good in 2025, but not a true Super Bowl team. The Rams opened the year at +2000 to win it all, tied with the Cincinnati Bengals and barely above the Minnesota Vikings. A total of seven teams were given better odds of hoisting the Lombardi, and that speaks to just how dynamic Stafford has been under center, and how much he’s listed Los Angeles.

Stafford has dominated the statistical battle in 2025, and he has the chops to prove that he’s meant the most to his team — but there’s also the element here that voters are very willing to hand out MVP as a kind of make-good, or career achievement award. This is what led to Josh Allen winning in 2024, and this year’s award would allow the league to correct for 2011, when Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and 46 touchdowns — but got beaten out because it happened to come in a year where Aaron Rodgers went nuclear, throwing 46 touchdowns and only six interceptions. For that reason we can see the 2025 MVP not just as an award for excellence this year, but what could be the last, best chance to give a bouquet to a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Like it or not, MVP is always a QB award. That won’t change, even in a down year. Guys like Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence will have their time in the future, but when it comes to this season the choice is easy. Matthew Stafford is your MVP.

The case for “the field”

Represented by Mark Schofield

The case for Matthew Stafford as the MVP this season is certainly not without merit, and counsel makes a compelling argument on his behalf. Stafford has been, in many statistical categories, the best quarterback in the NFL this season.

But I want to focus, for a moment, on another argument raised by Counsel Dator. As he correctly notes, the Los Angeles Rams began the year at +2000 to win the Super Bowl, with seven teams given better odds of winning the Lombardi Trophy.

The New England Patriots were at +8000, with 20 teams given better odds of winning Super Bowl LX. Those teams included the Dallas Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals, two teams already eliminated from postseason contention.

Drake Maye is more than a storyline. He has become the heart and soul of a team that surpassed even the most optimistic views heading into the season. Patriots fans were hoping the team would contend for the playoffs, and that Maye would take a step forward after his rookie season. Not only are the Patriots playoff contenders, but they enter Week 17 having already clinched a postseason spot and in the running for the top seed in the AFC.

And not only has Maye taken that step forward, but he is among the league’s best in several categories. While Stafford leads the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) with a mark of 8.61, Maye is third at 7.79. Not only does Maye lead the league in completion percentage at 70.9%, he is doing so while leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.7, where he is tied with Sam Darnold). He leads the NFL in QBR, and if you look at his “Quarterback Efficiency,” a composite that examines both his Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and his Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), you see where he stacks up against the rest of the league, including Stafford:

CPOE looks at both a quarterback’s actual completion percentage, and their “expected” completion percentage, which is calculated using the completion probability (based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more according to Next Gen Stats).

Quarterbacks with a higher actual completion percentage than their expected completion percentage are performing above expectations.

The gap between Maye’s actual completion percentage (70.9) and his expected completion percentage (62.7) is 8.2, the highest in the league.

But even if you ignore the turnaround, as the Patriots went from winning four games a season ago to clinching a playoff spot in Week 16, even if you ignore Maye’s production, and even if you focus on New England’s relative easy schedule, there is something else to consider.

You do not have to pick him.

The case here is “Matthew Stafford vs. The Field.” If you are not moved by the argument for Maye, you could be moved by an argument for another candidate. Counsel Dator mentions Trevor Lawrence, who has led the Jaguars to a playoff berth of their own, and who became the first player in NFL history to throw five passing touchdowns, score one rushing touchdown, and eclipse the 50-yard rushing mark in a single game in Jacksonville’s win over the New York Jets. You could even make the case for Josh Allen, who has seemingly willed the Bills back to the playoffs in a year where Buffalo has looked mortal at times.

The case for Maye is the strongest.

But even if you disagree with that case, there are other cases to find in favor of.

Verdict

By Judge Ricky O’Donnell

You both make compelling arguments here, but ultimately I’m siding with James: Matthew Stafford is NFL MVP.

At time of writing, Stafford has 15 more touchdowns, three fewer interceptions, and 200+ yards passing more than Maye. Maye looks like the NFL’s next great young quarterback, but he’s done it against one of the softest schedules the NFL has seen in decades. Stafford has had a better season playing against the NFL’s third hardest schedule, and he’s just been flat-out better.

I don’t care if the Rams win the NFC West or eventually finish third. Stafford has been the rising tide lifting the Rams’ boats all year. This season started with Stafford using an expensive “wellness pod” to try to fix his injured back, and it will end with the Rams as the favorites in the NFC.

Maye and others will have their time. Stafford was born in 1988. Maye was born in 2002. I expect this award to come down to Maye vs. Caleb Williams next year, and that conversation will be even more exhausting. For now, Matthew Stafford is the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.