Big Ten Basketball: Updated Predictions

With the December Big Ten games and most of the non-conference season in the books, it is a good time to re-evaluate preseason expectations and see where Illinois stacks up in the conference.

Please note that these are not power rankings (if they were, UCLA and Oregon would be much lower and Nebraska much higher), but an estimation of where these teams will be in the Big Ten standings at the end of the year. They are divided into tiers based on postseason expectation.

Tier 6: No Postseason

18. Rutgers (5-6, 0-2)

Best Win: 80-65 over Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn and UNLV. It’s the only top 200 team on Torvik that the Scarlet Knights have gotten this year.

Worst Loss: A 67-54 loss to the Blue Devils doesn’t sound so bad, until you find out it is the Central Connecticut Blue Devils, and not the Dukies. Scoring 54 points against a Northeast Conference opponent is unfathomable.

Good News: Dylan Grant has made a nice sophomore jump. He is averaging 14.6 points and 6.2 rebounds on efficient 50/46/74 shooting splits. He’d be a very good number two. Unfortunately, Rutgers probably needs him to be more aggressive and push the scoring up near 20 because…

Bad News: Their offense is atrocious. They actually make threes at a respectable 34.8% rate, but don’t take enough of them to be successful, and their two-point percentage of 44.4% is the worst of any power conference team in the country. They have played five power conference teams to dateand have yet to score more than 65 points in those games. Unsurprisingly, they are all losses.

17. Penn State (8-3, 0-2)

Best Win: 83-69 over La Salle on a neutral court. La Salle is 238th on Torvik, so the real answer is no one, despite being 8-3 on the season.

Worst Loss: Penn State did the disgusting act of making Indiana look like a dangerous team in their Big Ten opener, losing 113-72. They were already down by 32 points at half, and they allowed Lamar Wilkerson to make 10 threes and score 44 points.

Good News: Their biggest recruit ever has lived up to his hype. No. 34 ranked freshman Kayden Mingo is leading the team in points (15.0), assists (4.4) and steals (2.1), and is tied for the lead in rebounds (4.1). Coach Rhoades shouldn’t let Mingo do handshake lines all year, to keep him away from poaching coaches.

Bad News: Remember the defense of the early-Underwood Illini? Penn State is playing a similar, even less effective version of that defense. They aren’t fouling like the Illini did, but their all-Euro center rotation of Juric, Mirtic and Ciani is dire, and they are allowing a layup line at the rim, as their 2.4% block rate is by far the worst of any power conference team, and opponents (who, for the most part are low majors) are shooting a sparkling 55.8% from two-point range against them.

16. Minnesota (6-5, 1-1)

Best Win: The Gophers actually have a fairly impressive Big Ten win under their belt already, with a 73-64 win over Indiana. Even though Minnesota isn’t very good, the Barn will still be a weird place to play where weird things happen.

Worst Loss: They avoided disaster by beating Green Bay in overtime and actually have only lost to top-100 teams. The problem is they have 5 losses total, and only the Indiana game to hang their hat on. A 77-65 loss to San Francisco played in Sioux Falls for some reason is probably the worst of the bunch.

Good News: Minnesota has a recent tradition of having one really good player on awful teams. Cade Tyson continues that tradition passed on from Daniel Oturu to Marcus Carr to Jamison Battle to Dawson Garcia. Like Garcia, Tyson was a seldom used Tar Heel player who has flourished in Minnesota. He is currently leading the Big Ten in points per game, averaging 22.6.

Bad News: They just do not have any depth, especially now that point guard Chansey Willis is out for the season with a broken foot. The starting five is actually decent albeit undersized in the frontcourt, but there are no reliable reinforcements. They beat Indiana getting just one point in 21 minutes off the bench and were only down three at half against Purdue in the following game. Purdue blew them out in the second half though, and the bench scored a whopping four points.

15. Maryland (6-5, 0-2)

Best Win: 89-82 at Marquette. The Golden Eagles are bafflingly bad this year compared to what the program has been under Shaka Smart, but it was still a road win against a top 100 opponent.

Worst Loss: Losing at home to local rival Georgetown 70-60 has to sting. Georgetown has a pulse this year, having also beaten Clemson, but it still likely ends up a Quad 3 loss.

Good News: Pharrel Payne has taken a big jump forward and is one of the best true post players in the conference. He is averaging 17.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He is a better version of Julian Reese. They also should improve when they get Solomon Washington back. He has missed eight of their ten games, and provides valuable toughness, defense and rebounding in their frontcourt. Kansas transfer David Coit has been a much-needed perimeter threat, making three three-pointers a game at a 46.5% clip.

Bad News: It looks like Mike Woodson and Indiana permanently broke Myles Rice. He was supposed to be a bounce back candidate after being a strong player for Washington State two years ago, but he has been awful this year in the big games, scoring a grand total of 1 point in their games against Iowa, Gonzaga and Alabama. He should be a steadying force as a point guard, but has a 2:2 assist to turnover rate so far. Besides Coit, their backcourt as a whole is horrendous, with every other member of the guard rotation shooting under 40% from the field. 5-star recruit Darius Adams stands out the most, as he shoots the most. There are some similarities in his game to Will Riley, so he might figure it out as the season goes on.

Tier 5: Wrong Side of the Bubble

14. Northwestern (7-4, 0-2)

Best Win: Northwestern has fallen just short of some bigger wins against Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State, so their 79-77 win over South Carolina (87 KenPom) is their only victory over a top 100 opponent.

Worst Loss: They really do not have a bad loss. They have taken care of business in their low major games and squeaked out a win against DePaul. An 86-81 loss to Oklahoma State on Thanksgiving Day in the United Center was the one they probably wish they could have back.

Good News: Nick Martinelli is still very good with his lefty push shots, and Arrinten Page has been better than they could have hoped as his frontcourt mate. After playing sparingly at USC and Cincinnati, Page is averaging 15.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game, and has held up even against high major competition. Jayden Reid has also been a steady force at point guard, averaging 11.6 points and 5.5 assists despite playing better competition than he saw at South Florida.

Bad News: The K.J. Windham sophomore leap has not happened yet. After finishing strong last year, he has been playing and scoring less than he did as a freshman. Despite the strong frontcourt scoring from Page and Martinelli, they are getting destroyed on the defensive glass, with opponents getting back 32.3% of their misses.

13. Oregon (5-5, 0-2)

Best win: Oregon has won all its games against teams outside the top 100. They have not done so convincingly, having beaten Hawaii by just one point and Rice by four, and no wins by more than 15 points. Hawaii is probably their toughest win, but for feel good purposes beating in-state rival Oregon State 87-75 is their best win.

Worst Loss: They don’t have any bad losses, with every loss being to a KenPom top 75 team. The bad news is they have five losses altogether, and no good wins as highlighted above. The worst of the bunch is the loss to an underachieving Creighton team on a neutral floor.

Good News: The best news is that they are getting healthy. Their three best players have all missed time at different points of the season. As a top-heavy team, they should start to play better if Nate Bittle, Jackson Shelstad, and Kwame Evans can all stay on the court at the same time. TK Simpkins has taken the step up in competition from Elon well and provides the Ducks with a solid backcourt mate for Shelstad.

Bad News: They are basically Minnesota with better top end players. Outside of their top four players, everyone else on the roster stinks. After being bad for Duke and Ohio State, Sean Stewart unsurprisingly continues to be bad for Oregon. None of the international imports are ready. Small forward in particular is a black hole for the Ducks, as Dezdrick Lindsay and Devon Pryor have split time and the starting spot and been complete negatives on the offensive end.

Tier 4: Right Side of the Bubble

12. USC (10-1, 1-1)

Best win: The Trojans won the heavily weakened Maui Invitational, and while no one single win stands out, beating three decent teams consecutively in Boise State, Seton Hall and Arizona State is a solid achievement. On paper though, their best win is going into Eugene and taking out the Ducks in their Big Ten opener. However, major asterisk there as Nate Bittle was out for Oregon.

Worst Loss: Their only loss is a home loss to a good Washington team. Even though it was a win, their worst game was needing a legitimate miracle to escape Troy in triple overtime, 107-106 on one of the craziest endings you’ll see this year.

Good News: I was skeptical of his ability to carry a team, but Chad Baker-Mazara has stepped up from glue guy at Auburn to superstar for USC, averaging 21.6 points per game. Ezra Ausar has been an unexpected source of secondary offense, averaging 16.8 points almost exclusively around the rim.

Bad News: Why do I have a 10-1 team ranked this low? Partly because I am not that impressed by who they have beaten, but mainly because their second star Rodney Rice has dislocated his shoulder twice already this season and is out indefinitely. If he can come back sooner rather than later, they might be able to finish in the top half of the conference, but Musselman acknowledged that being out for the season is a possibility.

11. Ohio State (8-2, 1-1)

Best Win: They opened up conference play with a nice 86-82 road win in Evanston, with Brandon Noel coming out of nowhere to save the day with 29 points (he has only scored in double digits one other time this year). They also made a crazy comeback to beat West Virginia in overtime on a neutral floor.

Worst Loss: Not quite as crazy as the USC winner, but Ohio State lost to a pretty bad Pitt team on a deep buzzer beater three.

Good News: As Illinois fans witnessed, Bruce Thornton is awesome. He might be the most efficient volume scorer in the country so far, averaging 21.8 points per game on ridiculous 60/50/86 shooting splits, with 5 rebounds and 4.4 assists to boot. If Ohio State were to somehow finish in the top third of the Big Ten standings, he’d be a pretty easy choice for Big Ten player of the year.

Bad News: They are an incredibly thin team, with only six players who really belong in a Big Ten rotation (sorry, Gabe Cupps). Any attrition, and their push to finally make the NCAA tournament in Bruce Thornton’s tenure could be in jeopardy.

10. Washington (7-3, 1-1)

Best Win: The aforementioned road win at USC. It is their only win against a tourney quality team.

Worst Loss: None of their losses are particularly bad. Colorado looks like the worse one, but they are still a bubble level team, and it is understandable considering Washington was missing their star freshman Hannes Steinbach for that one. Their worst performance was needing double overtime to survive a bad Southern team that Illinois is facing next week. Steinbach was also out for that one, but that isn’t an excuse against a team of that caliber.

Good News: As good as Keaton Wagler and some of the other freshmen in this conference are, Hannes Steinbach is the clear Big Ten Freshman of the Year. He absolutely dominates inside, averaging 17.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Washington has struggled with injuries early, with the German Hammer missing three games, Desmond Claude missing four, and Bryson Tucker missing six, but they should have their full arsenal ready entering full-time conference play in January.

Bad News: Their USC transfer duo of Wesley Yates and Desmond Claude both seem to have regressed in their transfer up the Pacific coast. Both are shooting under forty percent from the field, and Claude’s assists have dropped fairly drastically from 4.2 to 2.3 per game. Claude’s could be related to missing training camp and the start of the year with an ankle injury, and if they have positive regression going forward this actually could be good news.

9. Wisconsin (7-3, 1-1)

Best win: Northwestern is probably the best team they have beaten so far, but that was at home, so the 104-83 drubbing of Providence in San Diego is their best resume win. They failed to get a skin in any of their biggest non-conference games.

Worst Loss: TCU is a bubble team and is the game Wisconsin probably wants back the most. However, the 90-60 shellacking they took in Lincoln was their most lackluster performance of the year, and worrying for their Big Ten prospects.

Good News: San Diego State transfer Nick Boyd has gone from a steady 13.4 point per game player in the Mountain West to averaging 20.2 points per game. He has some similarities to Kylan Boswell in that he is at his best using his strong build to finish at the rim through contact. John Blackwell continues to be very good as well, providing a strong 1-2 punch.

Bad News: Austin Rapp and Andrew Rohde were brought in to be floor spacers around those two stars, and have largely underwhelmed, shooting 29.1% and 32.5% from three respectively. Rapp was at 35% last year and Rohde was at 41.3%, so both have regressed significantly so far. The problem with those two struggling is that this team wasn’t built to have good options to replace them off the bench, although Lithuanian freshman Aleksas Bielauskas does seem to be ascending to be a possible replacement for Rapp as a stretch four.

8. Indiana (8-3, 1-1)

Best Win: Like Wisconsin, Indiana also has not beaten a likely tournament team. Their best win is an 86-69 route of Coleman Hawkins’ second alma mater, Kansas State. It is their only win against a top 90 team.

Worst loss: There is no shame in playing Kentucky and Louisville to close losses, but their loss to Minnesota in their Big Ten opener stands out on their resume, and not in a good way.

Good News: Indiana came into the season expected to be a dangerous offensive team with big questions defensively. Surprisingly, it has been there defense that has carried the load, ranking 17th defensively on Kenpom and just 41st offensively. Despite not having a particularly strong rim protector, opponents are shooting just 42.4% from two against them, good for 6th in the country. Offensively, Lamar Wilkerson has been successful transferring up from Sam Houston State, and Tucker Devries has been able to stay healthy.

Bad News: Reed Bailey has not had quite as easy a transition from a lower level as Wilkerson. He is averaging just 20 minutes and 11 points per game after being expected to anchor the team down low. The low point came on Saturday, as he could barely get on the floor against Kentucky’s athletic front court, playing just eight minutes in the loss. Darian Devries has played small, having him and Sam Alexis rarely share the floor together, which could pose a problem dealing with some of the monster front lines in the Big Ten.

Tier 3: Top 25-ish teams

7. Nebraska (11-0, 2-0)

Best Win: You already know. Going into Champaign and getting a win will be a jewel on the Cornhuskers’ resume all season long.

Worst Loss: Perhaps you heard during the broadcast, but Nebraska is undefeated and has the longest win streak in the country after winning The Crown postseason tournament last year. Their worst performance of the year was beating USC Upstate by just nine points, but a win is a win.

Good News: Rienk Mast is back and better than ever, scoring at higher volume and efficiency than he was before his redshirt last year. As we saw, Pryce Sandfort has also stepped up in a big way in a higher usage role away from the shadow of his big brother at Iowa. They are an old team that plays very connected.

Bad News: Connor Essegian is out for the year. He did not get off to a good start this year, but at his best he was another player they could run off screens to get looks from three, the rest of their backcourt are more “I’ll shoot if I am wide open” kind of guys, unless it’s at the buzzer in the State Farm Center of course.

6. Iowa (9-2, 1-1)

Best Win: Iowa is lacking in strong wins but expect them to start coming in the conference season. A neutral site victory over AJ Storr and Ole Miss will likely be a quad 2 win. Their best performance came in a loss, where they pushed Iowa State to the brink in a 66-62 loss in Ames, one of the harder places to play in the country.

Worst Loss: Losing on the road to Iowa State and Michigan State are their only losses, and both are top 12 teams, so they don’t have any bad losses, or even close calls for bad losses. The Michigan State game was uncompetitive though, so that takes the prize.

Good News: Bennett Stirtz is a top 3 Big Ten player of the year candidate. He is shooting a ridiculous 44% on 5.7 three-point attempts per game. He rarely comes off the floor for Iowa, and makes everything happen for them. With his gravity, everyone else eats and Iowa are shooting almost 40% from three-point range, good for 19th in the country. Ben McCollum has them playing connected defense that makes them a completely different monster from the Fran McCaffrey run and gun teams.

Bad News: An offense completely centered around one player can be slowed down. In their two losses against elite defensive teams, Stirtz has had his worst offensive games of the year, and the offense as a whole has grinded to a crawl, averaging only 57 points per game in the losses. When the Illini meet up with Iowa in January, can Kylan Boswell take the challenge of throwing Stirtz off his game?

5. UCLA (7-3, 2-0)

Best Win: The Bruins opened their Big Ten slate by going into Washington and getting a win. That will likely be a Quad 1 win all season.

Worst loss: Losing to in-state rival Cal is always an embarrassment for the historically superior UCLA. They were missing top scorer Tyler Bilodeau and it was played in Cal territory in San Francisco, but it’s a game they should win, nonetheless. Their other losses were valiant efforts against national title contenders Arizona and Gonzaga.

Good News: The supporting cast has mostly met or exceeded expectations. Bilodeau has upped his scoring and efficiency. Skyy Clark is shooting 50% from three. Michigan State bust Xavier Booker has been a passable center. Normally a defensive-minded coach, Mick Cronin has an efficient offense leading the way this year.

Bad News: Donovan Dent was supposed to be the star of this team but has completely forgotten how to score the basketball. After shooting 40% from three the past two years, he is shooting 7.7% this year and is basically afraid to take them. He’s missing his twos and his free throws as well. He has been playing through some injuries and has shown signs of breaking out of his funk the last few games by at least making his free throws and lay ups at a better rate. UCLA’s dark horse contender status depended on him being an All-Big Ten level player though and putting them even this high is a bet on him being too good of a player to continue to play this bad.

Tier 2: Conference and NCAA Dark Horses

4. Illinois (8-3, 1-1)

Best Win: Did you see Tennessee destroy Louisville last night? The Vols had a rough stretch, but that is a very good, tough team the Illini beat.

Worst Loss: Long gone are the days of the Assembly Hall impenetrable fortress, but even respecting Nebraska being a good team, dropping that one at home stings.

Good News: The offense is still great. Keaton Wagler is the best scouting evaluation in the country, and there are just so many dangerous players. The team does not need to rely on one player or one style to score buckets.

Bad News: The defense still makes too many mistakes. Will they clean them up to a certain extent as the season goes on like the Elite Eight team, or will they persist throughout the season like last year’s team? Will Tomislav Ivisic get back to the player he was expected to be consistently?

3. Michigan State (10-1, 2-0)

Best Win: Michigan State is tied for the most quad wins in the country with four, beating Arkansas and Iowa at home and North Carolina and Kentucky at neutral sites. The North Carolina win stands out the most, as it was a 74-58 comprehensive suffocation of a strong team.

Worst Loss: Their only loss was a close game against likely 1-seed Duke. Last week, they just escaped disaster with a 76-72 road win at conference bottom feeder Penn State. In general, their play style seems to lead to close games against both good and bad teams.

Good News: The typical Michigan State stuff. The defense is stingy, only giving up 38.6% from the field, and are perhaps the best rebounding team in the country. Offensively, Jeremy Fears has picked up the torch as the next Izzo-style floor general and leads the country in assists per game at 9.7

Bad News: While they are actually making three pointers at a solid respectable rate this year, they still have not moved into the 21st century in hunting threes, shooting less than 20 per game. With their shot profile and lack of a go-to scorer, their half-court offense continues to be middling.

Tier 1: Final Four Favorites

2. Michigan (10-0, 2-0)

Best Win: The entire Players Era Tournament in Las Vegas was an eye-opening weekend for the Wolverines. They beat a good San Diego State team by 40, a very good Auburn team by 30, and then an elite Gonzaga team by 40. Holiday tournaments are weird in that teams do not have time to adjust between games and should be taken with a few grains of salt, but that kind of dominance is unprecedented.

Worst Loss: The Wolverines are undefeated. They had a couple close calls with borderline tournament teams earlier in the year, with an overtime win against Wake Forest and a 4-point victory over TCU. Their most recent game Maryland was playing them tough for 30+ minutes before Michigan pulled away late.

Good News: In my offseason preview, I had spacing concerns due to a bunch of their rotation being questionable shooters. Dusty May is doing something right, because literally every player in the rotation is outshooting their career averages from deep. Pair that with their massive frontline of Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara all playing well, and you have an elite offense. I almost forgot to mention they have the best defense in the country.

Bad News: Honestly, there is very little to nitpick until this point of the season. They have been the best team in the country. It’s gross. So why put them second? See below.

1. Purdue (10-1, 2-0)

Best Win: Blowing out Texas Tech by 30 to win the Baha Mar Championship was impressive, but going to Alabama to get a true road win against a top 15 opponent is even better.

Worst Loss: Losing to a top-5 Iowa State team is their only loss, and it isn’t a bad one. It is one of the most shocking losses of the year though, in the fact that they got completely run out of the gym in the second half. That never happens in Mackey.

Good News: After coming into the season as the number one team in the country, I’d describe their non-conference performance as unconvincing for a title favorite. They have only lost once to a very good team, but they just don’t look the part of title favorite. However, I believe in their chance for the Big Ten title because of the experience they have going through a Big Ten season, and the schedule breaks that they got. While Michigan only plays Illinois and Purdue on the road and gets Michigan State twice, Purdue only faces all of the top teams once, and all of them at home. That likely makes the difference in the conference battle, even if I think Michigan is the more likely team to break the Big Ten’s National Championship drought.

Bad News: As mentioned, they haven’t really looked the part of National Title favorite. Braden Smith has seemed to be a bit deferential trying to get everyone involved, when looking for his own might be better. Trey Kaufman-Renn had early injuries and is having a little difficulty adjusting to playing with another big man. Highly touted freshman Omer Mayer has disappointed. Defensively, there are still athleticism concerns in higher level games.