NFL Draft: The quarterback market is already thinning out

As we discussed earlier this week, the Green Bay Packers don’t have many absolute needs going into this offseason. Could the team use a talent infusion in the draft? Always, but few positions scream “absolutely need,” with the major exception being quarterback, because the Packers are unlikely to re-sign quarterback Malik Willis — considering his expected $5 million to $8 million per year range.

For example, I could see the team adding talent to the cornerback and defensive tackle rooms, but I can also see the team saying, “Hey, we have these NFL-caliber guys on cheap contracts; Why are we actively trying to shed those deals?” The same can’t be said at the quarterback position.

That’s why I want to turn your attention to what’s happening in the NFL draft landscape right now, as it’s something that almost certainly will impact Green Bay in April. I wouldn’t bring this up if it wasn’t relevant: A lot of quarterbacks are planning on going back to college football.

So far, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, considered to be a first-round prospect, and USC’s Jayden Maiava, considered to be a Day 2 prospect, have already stated that they will be returning to their respective teams in 2026. So is Texas’ Arch Manning, though, that was always the expectation going into the year.

Beyond them, Cincinnati’s Bendan Sorsby, who was a borderline top-100 type player, is entering the transfer portal as he waits for NFL feedback. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, who is technically a senior in this class, has also filed a waiver with the NCAA so that he’s granted a retroactive redshirt year and can play one more season of college football.

After talking to scouts, it seems like the consensus is that Oklahoma’s John Mateer will also go back to school this year, as his before-and-after splits regarding his wrist surgery were pretty significant. Before his surgery, Mateer completed 95 of 141 passes (67%) for 1,215 yards (8.6 a pass), six touchdowns and three interceptions for an adjusted yards per attempt mark of 8.5. After the injury, he completed just 126 of 215 (59%) for 1,363 yards (6.3 a pass), six touchdowns and seven interceptions for an adjusted yards per attempt of 5.4.

With all these players going back, what does that leave the Packers, who almost certainly will be trying to lock down their next backup quarterback in the draft? Let’s take a look.

Underclassmen

• #1 on the consensus board Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
• #3 Dante Moore, Oregon
• #7 Ty Simpson, Alabama
• #166 Darian Mensah, Duke

Out of this group, the only certainty that scouts believe is absolutely going to declare is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. Oregon’s Dante Moore has been rumored to be leaning toward a return to Eugene, but he’s also made it clear that his decision hasn’t been set in stone. Maybe a successful playoff performance can change things, but the Packers won’t be in a position to draft him either way. What Moore’s exclusion or inclusion would do, though, is impact the rest of the quarterback market further along in the draft.

Alabama’s Ty Simpson has had a really up-and-down season, so scouts aren’t clear whether NFL feedback will push Simpson into the class or keep him out. Like Moore, his future might depend on how the Crimson Tide does in the playoffs, too.

The real X factor in the class is Duke’s Darian Mensah, who not only won the ACC this year after transferring from Tulane but also shows some Jordan Love-like traits. He’s flirting with the NFL draft right now, and if he does declare, look for him to become a quick riser as the media catches onto what scouts already know. Also, get ready for that Love comp come draft season. That’s the one that’s been repeated my way.

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So if the underclassmen don’t come out, who does that leave Green Bay, and the rest of the NFL, choosing from? Well, below are the seniors who are ranked among the top 200 prospects of the consensus board as of now (historically, only top-150 players have really been absolute stone-cold draft locks).

Seniors

• #39 Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
• #98 Cade Klubnick, Clemson
• #120 Carson Beck, Miami
• #133 Drew Allar, Penn State
• #176 Taylen Green, Arkansas
• #199 Sawyer Robertson, Baylor

It’s not a deep senior quarterback class (or class overall, outside of positions like tight end and off-ball linebacker) per scouts. If underclassmen (besides Mendoza) don’t supplement this crop, there might only be seven-ish quarterbacks taken in April, which will almost certainly drive up demand.

Here’s your quick breakdown on the draftable senior quarterbacks.

Garrett Nussmeier

While he’s not very physically gifted, Nussmeier is a good processor whose father, Doug, is the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints. The sub-6’2” quarterback was a two-year starter for LSU, but was benched at the end of the 2025 season after battling through an abdominal injury that had bothered him all season.

Cade Klubnik

I don’t think anyone is going to draft him to be their quarterback of the future, but Klubnik could serve the role of a high-end backup in the NFL. The former super recruit never took the next step at the college level, not helped by the decay of the Clemson program. He was a three-year starter with the Tigers and posted 73 touchdowns to 24 interceptions. He can also move around a bit.

Carson Beck

There are pretty split opinions about Beck in the scouting community right now. Some people think the Georgia transfer has a chance to be a starter, something like a Tyler Shough from last draft, while others view him strictly as a backup who doesn’t have elite traits and cannot create much out of structure. When Beck is off, he’s been way off, like his four-interception game against Louisville.

Drew Allar

Last year, there was some thought that Allar could have been a potential first-round pick, even though he never really quite put it all together through his junior season. This year, he went 3-3 with a Penn State roster that had national championship aspirations, had a dip in his production and had a season-ending ankle injury right after the five-game cutoff that would have allowed him to redshirt and return to college football. It’s unclear whether he will be ready to participate in rookie minicamp right after the draft.

Taylen Green

If you’re looking for someone close to Malik Willis, Green has rushed for 2,403 yards (sacks are included in rushing yards at the college level) and 35 touchdowns in college. The Boise State transfer is something close to a Dennis Dixon-type player, who stuck in the league for seven years and was drafted in the fifth round despite an ACL tear. At close to 6’6” and 235 pounds, Green is expected to run at least in the 4.5s come combine time.

Sawyer Robertson

The Mississippi State quarterback is something like a Bo Nix variant. He’s not the most accurate quarterback and he doesn’t process things the fastest, but he does have natural talent with both his arm and legs. Depending on whether you view Nix as a pejorative or a compliment, you’ll either dislike or like him. He has a career record of 13-14 at the college level.

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In short, there are going to be options for the Packers in April, but there aren’t going to be many quarterbacks to go around. With underclassmen headed back, it’s left sort of a void at the position, which will probably mean that these seniors will go a little earlier than expected (like the defensive tackle run last year).

If Green Bay wants to find its next backup in the draft (they probably will need to with their 2026 cap situation), don’t be surprised if they end up using a third- or fourth-round pick at the position, so that they avoid the mess that they had to go through after Jordan Love was promoted to the team’s starter.

Remember, it took three different draft picks for the Packers to land on Malik Willis. They only traded for Willis, on just a two-year deal versus a four-year rookie contract, after swinging and missing on picks for Sean Clifford and Michael Pratt. That worked when Green Bay was in a full-blown rebuild, but staring down a multi-year cap crunch, the Packers can’t afford to spend three Day 3 selections cycling through quarterbacks instead of just biting the bullet and taking one in the middle rounds, even when the team is down a first-round pick. If anything, not owning their own 2027 first-round pick should only make the backup quarterback position even more important to the team.