Alvarez's work isn't done just yet.
The New York Mets have ridden the spoils of their stars to a healthy playoff standing and a solid chance at winning the National League East. However, New York's lineup has become top-heavy with the regression of catcher Luis Torrens and third baseman Mark Vientos. It's hard to imagine the Mets making a deep playoff run without improvements to deepen the lineup, whether it comes from internal development or a deadline deal.
Among those in need of a hot streak is catcher Francisco Alvarez. Once a consensus top prospect, Alvarez has exceeded expectations defensively while stagnating offensively. New York sent him down to Triple-A on June 22 before calling him up before Monday's contest against the Los Angeles Angels.
It isn't remotely clear whether Alvarez's stint in Syracuse will matter.
Should Alvarez be selling out?
Fans didn't take long to call for Alvarez's return, and his raw production backs those requests.
In 35 MLB games, Alvarez hit three home runs. At Triple-A, he hit 11 in just 21 games. He was one of the hottest hitters on the minor league planet and tore the cover off the ball, seemingly making his case to get called up with each ferocious swing.
His 90th-percentile exit velocity ranked in the 99th percentile, via Robert Orr's shiny app. His damage per batted ball event was in the 100th percentile. Alvarez was selective but did plenty of damage on his swings. More importantly, he did so by pulling fly balls, the precise type of event Alvarez should be searching for because of his raw power.
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That's a distinct difference from his play in the bigs, where head coach Eric Chavez has preached taking what the pitcher gives hitters, emphasizing the opposite field and the importance of ground balls. This season, Alvarez's pulled fly ball rate ranked in the 24th percentile, continuing a trend from last season. As a rookie, Alvarez hit 25 home runs, although his overall production was below average. He's hit 14 in the two seasons since, without any real improvement with his bat-to-ball skills.
Alvarez is never going to be a .300-hitting contact bat. That's okay. But when he isn't hitting for power, he isn't offering anything at the plate, suggesting that the path back to productivity lies in those hard-hit balls to left field.
Maintaining the ability to pull fly balls will be important, especially if there is consternation with the MLB coaching staff upon his return. But Alvarez's improvements might be meaningless if his contact rates remain atrocious. It's relatively easy to do damage to a Triple-A fastball. However, Alvarez's bat-to-ball skills didn't look any better in Syracuse.
When he was sent down, he was running an eighth-percentile in-zone contact with an eighth-percentile contact rate over expected. In the minors, those marks were nearly identical (ninth and eighth percentiles, respectively). At each level, he struggled with whiffs against secondary pitches.
Posting those contact rates against a poor pitching environment doesn't bode well for his transition back to the big leagues. Perhaps the home runs are a confidence boost for a hitter who looked lost at the plate; maybe he can carry his pull-happy swing with him to Citi Field. Either one could serve the Mets' lineup well, especially as Torrens struggles.
Still, expecting Alvarez to save this offense is ambitious. He has long been the key to unlocking another level of upside in New York's lineup, but that's awfully hard to do if he's not making contact at a respectable rate. With incredible raw tools and top-prospect pedigree, there's reason to believe in his talent. Just don't do so with reckless abandon on the back of a Triple-A hot streak.
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