Only 18 teams can actually win it all.
The 18 College Football Teams That Can 'Actually' Win a Championship in 2025 Identified originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
The start of the college football season is a little over a month away, which means every team in the country is opening the year with a fresh slate.
There are 136 FBS teams in total with the latest additions of the Missouri State Bears and Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens. While every coach across the country is preaching that this could be his team's year if players execute well enough and get a couple of bounces to go their way, the data tells us that's a farce.
CBS Sports' Bud Elliott identified that, dating back to 2013, every team that has won a title has one thing in common, a "baseline" talent level. Known as the "Blue-Chip Ratio," it is predicated on teams signing more four- and five-star recruits than they do two- and three-star recruits over the past four recruiting classes.
When it's all said and done and the numbers are crunched, every championship team since 2013 has had at least 53% of its roster be made up of blue-chip recruits.
That's a threshold that just 18 of 136 teams meet heading into 2025.
Blue-Chip Ratio 2025 🚨
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) July 17, 2025
The 18 CFB teams can actually win the national championship in 2025 🏆@BudElliott3 breaks down the teams who have recruited well enough to win it all 🔗 https://t.co/740WBvmF25pic.twitter.com/Du7ZwtKDgO
Elliott did confirm that the Ole Miss Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks are the first two teams off the list and should join by next year, but outside of them, no other programs are "close."
The data also revealed that the Big 12 is the lone Power 4 conference without a representative despite frequent claims of being the deepest conference.
For those who are looking for some optimism about a program not featured, Elliott did admit that the House v. NCAA settlement could expand the pool eventually.
"The big thing I am watching is whether after the House v. NCAA settlement, talent will begin to spread out in the sport. We have never had a sport where all teams have a shot at the title, but it would be pretty cool if 30 or even 40 teams could potentially have a shot at winning the whole prize at some point in their lifetime," wrote Elliott.
Only time will tell if more teams get into the mix, but until then, we know the 18 who actually are.
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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 17, 2025, where it first appeared.
Category: General Sports
