The Cincinnati Reds haven't made the playoffs in a non-pandemic season since 2013. They haven't won a postseason series in 30 years.
ATLANTA - Ninety-seven games, two All-Star appearances and four days off for the 24 other guys on the roster, the Cincinnati Reds open a 65-game final stretch trying to catch at least two teams in their own division to make the playoffs in a non-pandemic season for the first time since 2013.
The Reds (50-47) were three spots and 2 1/2 games out of playoff position under their new manager at the break, with nothing longer than a five-game winning streak or four-game losing streak on their ledger as All-Stars Andrew Abbott and Elly De La Cruz rejoined the better rested group for a stretch run that should at least be worth watching.
"We're still in the fight," Abbott said.
Five things to watch that might make the difference:
1. Cincinnati Reds change course at trade deadline
Less than two weeks remained before the July 31 trade deadline as the Reds headed to New York to open their post-break schedule against the formidable Mets, needing hitting and bullpen help (and crossed fingers for rotation health) if they choose to be buyers and boost their playoff chances.
It’s anything but certain that they’ll take that route, at least aggressively, as they teeter at the fringe of the wild-card race, with plenty of attractive short-term veterans on the roster they could move if they choose to sell.
They won four of their last five games before the break (against Miami and awful Colorado) but they’ve won only one of their last four series, and they’re in fourth place in the NL Central with a losing record against division opponents.
The front office might take another week to determine a direction.
2. Hunter Greene groin watch
The Reds’ Opening Day starter was cruising to a second consecutive All-Star season until May 7, when he walked off the mound in Atlanta because of a Grade 1 groin strain.
He has made three starts since, aggravating the injury a month later, and he’s in Arizona at the team’s training complex doing rehab work to prepare him to get back on the mound.
When will he return? “We really don’t have a road map,” manager Terry Francona said just before the break.
If the Reds hang in the wild-card race into next month, it’s not hard to imagine that Greene (4-3, 2.72) could be the difference between making the playoffs and falling short.
3. Chase Burns' workload
Greene’s injury puts a bigger burden on the shoulders of rookie Chase Burns, who is the last line of depth for a rotation that has been a Reds strength for two seasons. He’s made four big-league starts with mixed results (his last one, against Miami, having been his best).
The Reds’ top prospect/rookie pitcher is slotted at the back end of the rotation coming out of the break because team officials want him to give him a chance to complete the season in his first year of pro ball.
It’s a fine line they’ll walk with Baseball America’s 27th-ranked prospect in the game, whose powerful right arm has never pitched more than the 100 innings he threw for Wake Forest last year before the Reds drafted him second overall.
He opens the second half at 66 innings across four levels of the organization (16 in the big leagues).
4. How big could Sal Stewart be for Cincinnati Reds?
Big-hitting third-base prospect Sal Stewart used the Futures Game last weekend as a springboard to a promotion from Double-A to Triple-A Louisville out of the break – a phone call away from the big leagues.
If he keeps up the .306 hitting production (.377 on-base percentage) at Triple-A, he could be an option for a youth injection to the lineup at some point down the stretch. Which is exactly what he had his sights on as he left Atlanta following his Futures Game appearance.
“I’m ready to go. I feel great,” he said. “Body feels good, mind feels good. So I’m gonna take this time off and then make a push for that September callup.”
5. Will Reds get trademark Terry Francona second-half bump?
One classic, historical trait of good managers is second-half improvement in their teams, especially new teams after they get to know what they have in the first half and start flexing their game management muscles with more urgency in the second half.
No? Consider that Francona’s small-market Cleveland teams that often relied disproportionately on in-house depth for improvement down the stretch annually was more than 40 percentage points better after the All-Star break than before (in the 10 full seasons he was there).
The numbers: 477-425 (.529) collectively in the first half, 409-307 (.571) in the second half. They made the postseason in five of those seasons.
Even more impressive, Francona’s teams in his first season at three previous managing stops made dramatic second half improvements – even his bad Phillies team in 1997.
In his first seasons in Philadelphia, Boston and Cleveland, his teams went 123-143 (.462) collectively in the first half and 135-85 (.614) in the second – a whopping 152-point improvement in winning percentage.
And the improvement showed up in each of those seasons:
- 1997 Philadelphia Phillies — 24-61 (.282) first half, 44-33 (.571) second.
- 2004 Boston Red Sox* — 48-38 (.558) first half, 50-26 (.658) second.
- 2013 Cleveland Indians** — 51-44 (.537) first half, 41-26 (.627) second.
- 2025 Cincinnati Reds — 50-47 (.515) first half, ?-? second.
*-Won World Series. **-Made playoffs.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: 5 things to watch as Cincinnati Reds open second half, chasing October
Category: Baseball
