The Formula 1 paddock is rarely quiet, but the whispers surrounding Max Verstappen’s future have reached a fever pitch. Despite
The Formula 1 paddock is rarely quiet, but the whispers surrounding Max Verstappen’s future have reached a fever pitch. Despite a contract with Red Bull until the end of the 2028 season, the reigning four-time World Champion is “strongly” considering a bombshell exit, according to former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher.
It’s a move that, from many angles, feels like a strategic masterstroke given the current landscape, presenting a near-perfect window for the Dutchman to jump ship.
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Why Max Verstappen should consider jumping now
Red Bull, a team synonymous with Verstappen’s recent dominance in F1, finds itself in what many describe as a downward spiral, with its current struggles expected to last two to three years. The departure of team principal Christian Horner has added a significant new wrinkle to Verstappen’s contemplation, and while some theorize Horner’s axing was meant to keep Max, observers, such as Schumacher, are unsure if the two issues are linked.
Compounding this, the team’s car performance and handling have worsened, much to Verstappen’s frustration, with Pierre Waché reportedly failing to make the car truly “drivable and good” for a year and a half. Red Bull is currently fourth in the team standings, with Verstappen scoring all but seven of their points.
(They’re) just missing final contract details, but everyone knows that it’s an option. They are talking. Until August, he needs to have made a decision, they will either get the final details right or not. But I think it would be pretty cool.
Nelson Piquet Jr. on Verstappen/Mercedes F1 Talks
“Because for two, or a year and a half, Pierre Waché has failed to make the car really drivable and good,” Schumacher surmised, which is a bigger reason for Verstappen to be unhappy at Red Bull. “So I still think that after last weekend, Max is thinking strongly about leaving Red Bull.”
Departures could spook Max Verstappen
Beyond on-track performance, the high-profile staff departures at Red Bull are a massive concern for anyone involved. There remains uncertainty surrounding the Red Bull Powertrains division. The entry of Ford as a new engine manufacturer in 2026 also brings uncertainty to a team already overflowing with it. Historical examples, such as Honda’s return, show that it can take years for new engines to become reliable and championship-winning.
For Verstappen, losing the best driver on the grid would undoubtedly cause Red Bull to struggle, not just from a talent perspective but also in developing the car. This period of instability and uncertainty at his current team creates a compelling argument for a change.
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What does Verstappen gain by signing with Mercedes?
Enter Mercedes, a team that has made no secret of its flirting with Verstappen. Team principal Toto Wolff and Verstappen’s manager, Raymond Vermeulen, have already confirmed that talks are underway. The most revealing hint came from Nelson Piquet Jr., the brother of Verstappen’s partner, Kelly, who recently stated on a podcast that Max would be with Mercedes in 2026.
“(They’re) just missing final contract details, but everyone knows that it’s an option,” Piquet Jr. said. “They are talking. Until August, he needs to have made a decision, they will either get the final details right or not. But I think it would be pretty cool.”
Mercedes is widely tipped to be the team for the new 2026 regulations, with word in the paddock suggesting they have the most advanced engine project. From a pure performance standpoint, Mercedes appears a safer bet than Red Bull. Earlier in the season, Aston Martin was also considered a possible landing spot for Verstappen. The rumored $300 million hasn’t resurfaced, but with Adrian Newey now on the Aston Martin team, it could make sense.
What would be the downside of a Mercedes move?
If the move happens for Verstappen, it isn’t without its caveats. While Mercedes’ engine project is highly regarded, there’s no guarantee of success and the question remains whether they can build a decent and championship-contending car around it, especially given their serial failures in the ground-effect era are well known. The simple truth is that nobody knows what 2026 will have in store and a decision based on”actual results and performance figures rather than just development hype is more likely.
Should Mercedes struggle, any new long-term contract they secure with Verstappen would likely be”more watertight, making it harder for him to walk away compared to his current Red Bull deal, which includes performance clauses that can be triggered.
Despite these unknowns at Mercedes, the timing feels increasingly right for Verstappen. His current Red Bull contract has performance clauses that could allow him to leave if needed, but if he waits, Mercedes might tie him into a less flexible deal. With Red Bull facing a challenging rebuild and uncertain future, taking the leap to a team that is proactively pursuing him and building for the new regulations makes strategic sense. It is a decision fraught with risk for both driver and team, but in the volatile world of F1, sometimes the biggest gambles yield the greatest rewards.
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