Misfits Boxing 22 predictions, odds: Darren Till vs. Luke Rockhold, Tony Ferguson vs. Salt Papi and more

Misfits Boxing 22 goes down Saturday in Manchester, headlined by a host of big-time MMA names.

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JANUARY 18: Darren Till punches Anthony Taylor during their cruiserweight fight on the Misfits Boxing 30 Live fight card at Co-op Live on January 18, 2025 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Ben Roberts Photo/Getty Images)
Darren Till has been so far, so good at this whole boxing thing.
Ben Roberts Photo via Getty Images

In a weekend of relatively limited combat sports action, the door has opened for some of MMA's bigger personalities of the past decade to shine in the Misfits Boxing ring. On Saturday, Misfits Boxing 22 takes place in Manchester, England ready to deliver the promotion's typical brand of chaos.

The main event features two former UFC middleweight stars, starting with the returning one-time welterweight title contender Darren Till. Undefeated after two wins under the banner, Till will welcome a former champion Luke Rockhold to the sport overall. Since both parted ways with the UFC, they've primarily focused on striking arts, and now meet under boxing rules at 200 pounds.

Tony Ferguson will follow along with Rockhold in making his boxing debut. The former UFC interim lightweight champion is in hot pursuit of a victory after suffering eight consecutive losses in the octagon, ending with his first-round submission defeat to Michael Chiesa in August 2024. Welcoming Ferguson to the ring will be Nathaniel "Salt Papi" Bustamante, who is wildly the most experienced boxer of the four men atop the billing.

With a break from the usually scheduled programming, Misfits Boxing 22 will deliver everything you'd expect it to, and if we're lucky, more.


The career arc of "aged boxer" in life after MMA is still one I'll never get used to for a lot of the beloved legends who continue to thrill seek. That may not entirely fit Till at 32, but it does for the 40-year-old Rockhold.

What makes Rockhold's foray into the purest punching art so fascinating is that his overall kickboxing game was his striking strong suit. Specifically, when he can utilize his exceptional kick work, that's why the prospect of his Karate Kickboxing arrival was so exciting, and what do you know? He scored a knockout in his lone appearance against seasoned kickboxer Joe Schilling. 

The win last year was a much-needed combat win for Rockhold, who had been winless since 2017. However, it was primarily thanks to his great kicks that set up his patented check hook. But even looking back to a purer form of punching-specific combat, Rockhold did better than most remember in his bare-knuckle boxing match against Mike Perry in April 2023. The former champ often sought his check hook, ultimately landing a clean straight down the pipe to stagger Perry before a late flurry and close to the round. Unfortunately for Rockhold, his durability, or arguable unwillingness to continue, was his undoing when Perry broke his teeth in the second round.

Rockhold's defense was seemingly hampered in that match by his inability to keep distance with kicks. That won't bode well for him against the powerful Till, who has maintained good punching power throughout the entirety of his career. Life after MMA has also boosted Till's confidence, and his lack of respect for Rockhold could hurt him thanks to Rockhold's solid counter game. The X-factor is simply Rockhold's notoriously concerning chin. Although he didn't get knocked out by Perry, he did get staggered right after his momentum picked up in that first round. And sure, that was gloveless boxing, but Till will be aggressive and deliver vicious volume boxing for as long as the match lasts.

This will be a much more competitive match than most are probably giving it credit for, but Till should still come out on top with nearly every factor in his favor. Rockhold is better suited for kickboxing, grappling or the combination of the two that he made his name in.

Pick: Till


LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 16: Paddy Pimblett of Great Britain (R) is punched by Tony Ferguson of the United States in a lightweight fight during the UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington event at T-Mobile Arena on December 16, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Please, Tony. Just win.
Sean M. Haffey via Getty Images

I'm not even going to pretend with this one, folks. Ferguson probably won't win this because we've passed the point of no return with him, and it's progressively getting sadder with each appearance. But we're going to go with the heart pick and say he gets it done because damn it, "El Cucuy" has to win something this year

There's no better time than against an influencer, right?

Again, that's very likely wrong, as Bustamante has actually been dedicating a decent amount of time to his boxing run and has done well. Let's not act like he's fought competition with the experience of someone like Ferguson, though. And contrary to how it may feel over the past five years, Ferguson has actually only lost via strikes in two of his three losses. He very well could channel his inner violent ways and pull this off — despite the limitations.

On that same note, we've seen this song and dance far too many times in the time since Ferguson last won, and it doesn't go well for aged MMA fighters. 

It will take a miracle, but I believe.

Pick: Ferguson


Every fiber of my being despises that I have to predict a Dillon Danis win, but I have to be realistic, especially after that last prediction.

First of all, Warren Spencer flat-out admitted on Uncrowned's "The Ariel Helwani Show" that he will give up and tap as soon as Danis takes him down — which he will. Obviously, this has to be all talk because that's a ridiculous thing to say. But this whole thing is ridiculous, and Spencer isn't an MMA fighter. Danis isn't really one anymore either, having not fought in the sport since 2019.

Regardless, this is the same type and level of opponent the jiu-jitsu specialist was fed in his two Bellator appearances. Expect an easy submission for Danis, potentially following the worst striking exchanges you've ever seen.

Pick: Danis


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Category: General Sports