Frog Mailbag: TCU vs. North Carolina

Football is back in Funky Town, as the TCU Horned Frogs will take the field for their 2025 season opener against North Carolina in less than one week. As head coach Sonny Dykes and his players prepare to face Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels, our staff at Frogs O’ War went to Facebook and took questions from fans, which will be shown below in our first 2025 installment of the Frog Mailbag. The Frog Mailbag will be a recurring weekly piece where we answer your questions from Facebook and provide analysis throughout the 2025 football season.

Below are this week’s questions!

With the tougher strength of schedule this year, what final record would dictate a “successful” season? 8 wins? More? — Mitch Tasker

This was one of our polls that we featured in our Hit the Horn article posted earlier this morning. From what we’ve gathered on social media, a large percentage of TCU fans are expecting AT LEAST eight wins this season, with over half of our responders believing the Horned Frogs can win 10 or more games. TCU’s betting odds to win eight-plus games at +110 (very slight underdogs to hit eight wins) according to FanDuel. The Horned Frogs went 9-4 last season with a very favorable Big 12 schedule and bowl game, so it’s understandable that fans have higher expectations for 2025.

There are three key points I’ll make about the TCU schedule. The first is how successful the Horned Frogs can be in the nonconference (UNC, Abilene and SMU). While I believe UNC will be a tough game, I think TCU comes away with the win. Add a gimme against Abilene and the Horned Frogs would be 2-0 in nonconference games heading into SMU. The Mustangs are returning CFP playoff qualifiers and are a preseason top-25 team, but given that the game is in Fort Worth this year and the Horned Frogs SHOULD be motivated to play this game (what could be the final installment of the Iron Skillet), I believe there’s a universe where TCU goes 3-0 in nonconference games.

The second area is the Big 12 schedule, specifically the games TCU should win. Looking at the schedule, there are four games that stand out: Colorado, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati. The Buffaloes should take a step back with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter gone, while the Cougars suspended (and then lost to the transfer portal) starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff. Houston and Cincinnati are two teams I think will finish in the bottom half of the conference (TCU also gets the Bearcats at home as opposed to play in cold Ohio weather). The Horned Frogs going 3-1 over these four games would be a positive, but in a perfect world, TCU wins all four of these games.

Lastly, we have the tough portion of the conference schedule. TCU plays West Virginia in Morgantown (I firmly expect this one to be a nail biter) as well as Kansas State, Arizona State, Iowa State and Baylor. The Sun Devils reached the playoff last season, while Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor are popular picks to win the Big 12 this season. If the Horned Frogs want to take a step forward in 2025, then a 3-2 record over these five games would be the bare minimum requirement.

Ultimately, there are several paths in which TCU could reach nine wins again in 2025. Given the toughness of the schedule, I would consider another nine-win season to be a success, with 10 or more wins being a great success. Given expectations, anything less than eight wins will likely be viewed by most fans as a failure.

Does beating UNC prove TCU is national contender? – Corey Hickey

I don’t think so. There are so many unknowns about this matchup that I think it could be a very similar situation to the 2023 season, when TCU lost at home against Colorado in Deion Sanders’ debut as a collegiate head coach. Expectations soared for the Buffaloes, who ultimately flamed out and went 4-8. While there’s a universe where UNC defeats TCU and goes on to become a title contender in the ACC, there’s another universe where the Tar Heels also crater and fail to make a bowl game in Bill Belichick’s first year (and maybe only year?) at the helm.

Truthfully, I don’t think we’ll know how good this TCU team will be until the Big 12 schedule, specifically against opponents like Kansas State, Arizona State, Iowa State and Baylor. Should the Horned Frogs find a way to take care of business against all four of these teams, then they’ll almost certainly be ranked highly in the polls with Big 12 title aspirations.