Could Arkansas make the College Football Playoff?

It sounds crazy, right?

Arkansas hasn’t finished a regular season over .500 since 2021, when the Hogs went 8-4 and then defeated Penn State in the Outback Bowl. Since then, they’ve gone 6-6 in 2022, 4-8 in 2023 and 6-6 in 2024.

So, it sounds like a pipedream that Arkansas would actually compete to be one of the 12 teams in the College Football Playoff this year. But one outlet’s metrics actually gives the Razorbacks a chance.

Kelley Ford, which does ratings for schedules and program resumes, released a graphic that showed Arkansas as one of four teams (Florida, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are the others) that would need to win eight regular season games to qualify for the playoff.

One thing that, in a sense, plays into Arkansas’ CFP hopes is a decision the College Football Playoff committee made on Wednesday. The committee announced an added metric — record strength.

“This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team,” The CFP said in a press release. “Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”

Obviously, an 8-4 record won’t have Arkansas competing for an SEC Championship and, by proxy, an automatic bid. But if that record puts the Hogs in the conversation for an at-large bid, maybe it’s not as much of a pipedream as once thought.

It just means more, but it won’t be easy

Let’s not jump the gun here, though. Arkansas has a massive uphill climb if they want to get into the CFP conversation. As much as eight wins might put the Hogs into the conversation, there’s a lot that has to go right.

For example, most sportsbooks have Arkansas’ win total at 5.5 wins. That’s teetering on bowl eligibility, which is a far cry from a playoff spot. So the Hogs will need to punch above that line by several games to push their way into the conversation.

The good news is the Hogs have ample opportunities to get those upsets. The schedule is tough. There’s no question about that. But what would it actually take?

Realistically, the Hogs will need to win the games they’re favored in, and probably get another four or five wins in games they aren’t favored in. Game-by-game lines aren’t available, but it’s a good bet the Hogs will be favored against these teams:

• Alabama A&M
• Arkansas State
• Auburn
• Mississippi State
• Memphis

Remember, this is hypothetical. By the time the games are played, this could be severely outdated. But it’s safe to say the Hogs will be underdogs in these games:

• Ole Miss
• Notre Dame
• Tennessee
• Texas A&M
• LSU
• Texas
• Missouri

So realistically, Arkansas will need to win all five of those first games, and get three of the seven they probably won’t be favored in. But what does Kelley Ford say about the percentage chance they get those wins?

Kelley Ford’s analysis of Arkansas

Kelley Ford’s website shows a more in-depth analysis of Arkansas football than just one tweet showing Arkansas needs eight wins to get into the playoff conversation. It has broken down the Hogs’ 2025 schedule and showed the percentage win chance for each game.

The Razorbacks have four games where there’s a higher than 50% chance the Hogs win the game — Alabama A&M, Arkansas State, Memphis and Mississippi State. They’re under 30% chance for a win in six games — Ole Miss (23%), Notre Dame (19%), Tennessee (21%), Texas A&M (27%), LSU (16%) and Texas (7%).

Kelley Ford also gives the Razorbacks a percentage chance for the likelihood of getting to that eight-win mark — 5 percent. Their conference schedule difficulty rating is the third-highest in the SEC, and there’s a 47% chance the Hogs get three conference wins.

So you’re saying there’s a chance…

There’s a higher percentage chance that Arkansas ends up somewhere between 6-6 (40%) and 5-7 (68%) according to Kelley Ford.

Dumb and Dumber reference aside, yes. There is a chance for Arkansas to make some noise to get into the College Football Playoff conversation. But it won’t be easy, nor is it likely. Like Kelley Ford’s rating say, there’s about a 5% chance. But football isn’t played on paper, it’s played on the field.

Preseason metrics are just that: Preseason. They base their numbers on projections, and sometimes those projections fall flat on their face.

For example, what if Taylen Green isn’t as far along as thought? What if he’s even further? What if any of the SEC teams the Hogs will face that there’s less than a 50% chance they lose to aren’t as good as projected?

There’s a ton of questions that will be answered soon. That’s why they play the game.

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