History Working Against Arch Manning and Texas Winning a Title in 2025

History Working Against Arch Manning and Texas Winning a Title in 2025 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

On3 analyst J.D. PicKell does not see Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns winning the national championship this year. Despite them being favored by a lot of analysts and seen as an upcoming SEC powerhouse, there's a strong reason why they could fall short of the desired goal.

Manning is a first-time starting quarterback, and recently, only experienced QBs have led their teams to national titles. PicKell pointed out that Mac Jones and the Alabama Crimson Tide were the last team to accomplish this feat.

That happened five years ago, and since then, college football has changed drastically. Thus, the On3 analyst believes that the LSU Tigers and Garrett Nussmeier will have the edge over the Longhorns.

Manning had a small sample size last year, but in that short time, he put up a better completion percentage and touchdown/interception ratio than Quinn Ewers.

Yes, Ewers faced a lot of difficulties with the O-line and the receivers, while also playing tougher opponents, but Manning has shown the ability to throw deep, accurate balls and also use his legs when necessary.

PicKell says that the Longhorns are definitely warranted for the discussion of the best team in college football. However, now the conversation needs to move into the 10 percent difference between making the playoffs and winning the national title.

The On3 analyst noted, "The ten percent difference for me, for Texas, comes back to Arch Manning, comes back to who you have at quarterback."

He believes that in the 12-team playoff structure, the Longhorns will be put against rosters of similar caliber. Thus, they will need their QB to touch the ball the most times and make impactful plays.

According to PicKell, that's asking a lot from Manning, despite his last name and the hype around him.

The Longhorns kick off their season against the Ohio State Buckeyes on August 30.

Related: Arch Manning Gets a Reality Check from National Reporter

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Aug 1, 2025, where it first appeared.