Man City’s title destiny out of their hands after costly Nottingham Forest draw

A night when Manchester City lost two leads may have cost them much more. Two points escaped their grasp and a title may be slipping away from them. Pep Guardiola has won the Premier League six times but there might not be a seventh, the balance of power shifting south, towards his old assistant Mikel Arteta and Arsenal. Guardiola is the manager who has made history but now City’s destiny is out of their hands.

A club who won a Premier League in part because of a goal-line clearance – by John Stones against Liverpool in 2019 – may come to rue another, by Murillo, thwarting Savinho, in the 99th minute. And so Nottingham Forest reshaped the picture at both ends of the table, with a combination of resilience and brilliance.

As City were on course for a seventh straight win, and an eighth consecutive triumph on home soil, it was easy to assume there was an inevitability about it all. Forest did not, conjuring different but terrific equalisers. There were consequences, and not merely for their hosts. They had dropped into the relegation zone until Elliot Anderson let fly from 25 yards. Vitor Pereira’s first point for Forest – and just his third in 12 league games this season, spread across two clubs - felt huge.

Much as City were frustrated, Forest merited it, not least for the manner of their goals. They have underachieved grievously to languish so low in the standings, but they possess two high-class midfielders; two, indeed, who City admire.

Each scored, and in style. Morgan Gibbs-White was on City’s shortlist last summer, when they instead opted for Rayan Cherki as the heir to Kevin De Bruyne. The Frenchman has been a success but as Gibbs-White improvised the first equaliser, they could have been forgiven for wishing he now plied his trade in sky blue. Anderson might be a target this summer. But if he does arrive, he reduced the chances he will be joining the champions.

When he exchanged passes with Callum Hudson-Odoi, advanced purposefully and stroked in a shot from 25 yards, the atmosphere at the Etihad altered. This was an evening when Forest showed both their mettle and their quality; their captain in particular.

Gibbs-White scored an audaciously brilliant goal, backheeled through the legs of Ruben Dias, surprising Gianluigi Donnarumma. The Forest captain had already looked their most menacing player, sharp on the counter-attack, flourishing in a free role, but this was something special.

There might even have been a winner, the substitute Ryan Yates flashing an injury-time header wide. As it was, it served as a reminder that this is not the City side of old, the team who could be immaculate in the run-in.

This side stumbled, despite being given the lead by goalscorers new and old. Antoine Semenyo was first to strike, hooking in a volley from Cherki’s cross. It was a seventh goal in 12 games for the January signing, a player who has slotted straight in and who, by breaking the deadlock four times already, has displayed a capacity to make a difference.

But he was not the match-winner. Nor was Rodri, who seemed to have added to his litany of decisive goals for City. The man who made them champions of Europe in 2023 had not found the net in the Premier League since he and Phil Foden struck against West Ham to seal the title in 2024.

He seemed to supply proof a cruciate ligament injury had not stripped him of his ability to deliver when it mattered. City were the side with the lowest percentage of goals from set-pieces this season, it came from a corner. Yet, while Pep Guardiola is one of football’s most famous purists, he can be pragmatic. The ends justify the means. There can be a beauty in aiming for the big lad in the box.

Rayan Ait-Nouri did. The Ballon d’Or winner met the left-back’s corner and planted a header through Matz Sels’ legs. Yet it was not that easy to kill off Forest. Pereira had reconfigured his team, playing 3-5-1-1, congesting the centre of the pitch. Gibbs-White was a threat on the break. His teammates were disciplined and determined. City had Erling Haaland back after he missed the trip to Leeds. Guardiola turned to his bench, to Jeremy Doku, to Savinho.

As the clock ticked down, as City appealed for penalties and corners, there was the sense there would be one more chance. There was, to Savinho, to a winger who gets too few goals. It seemed he would score a seismic one. But there was Murillo, riding to Forest’s rescue and to Arsenal’s aid.