Eric Samulski discusses his strategy for drafting starting pitchers in 12-team leagues
The World Baseball Classic is about to get underway, and we're three weeks away from the MLB season kicking off, which means fantasy baseball drafts are filling up our calendars. I’ve spent a lot of the off-season writing about my favorite starting pitcher targets and updating my top 150 starting pitcher rankings, but I felt that it was time to be specific about my strategy when it comes to drafting starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll talk through how I approach drafting starting pitchers in 12-team fantasy baseball drafts and also why this is my approach. My hope is not just to give you some roadmap to copy, but to have us all think through the position together so that we can enter our drafts with a strategy for drafting starting pitchers that we feel confident in.
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Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Landscape
A big part of my approach to starting pitching is in response to the general landscape. The top three starting pitchers this season seem clear-cut: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes; however, everything after that is up in the air.
We have a handful of traditional aces who are currently injured, like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Zack Wheeler, which takes them out of the fantasy ace conversation. We have other potential aces who are coming off seasons impacted by injury, like Shane McClanahan, Hunter Greene, and Logan Gilbert. Then there are former aces who are still elite talents but have some durability concerns, like Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale, and younger starters who look poised to cement their ace status, like Bryan Woo and Cristopher Sanchez. All of which is to say that, once those top three starting pitchers are off the board, you could go in any number of ways.
I'm still a believer that there is no such thing as a "safe starting pitcher," but I've walked back my willingness to lean into risks in recent years. Yes, every pitcher is inherently risky, and even two of our consensus top three pitchers (Skubal and Crochet) have had major arm surgery in recent years. Still, there is a way to determine which pitchers carry more risk than others, and the most obvious one is to be skeptical of pitchers who ended last season injured. Even if they have what they believe is a normal offseason, those injuries don't magically heal themselves with time, as we saw with Spencer Schwellenbach and Pablo Lopez.
As a result, I intentionally move down pitchers who did not end last season healthy and on the mound. I also move down pitchers like Sale and Tyler Glasnow, who have a history of pitching fewer than 140 innings in a season. I'll take those types of starters in my draft, just usually after I've established a strong foundation of at least three starters. Yes, I'd take Sale to be my SP2 and Glasnow to be my SP3 if they fell enough, but I'm unlikely to take them at their current price.
Finally, I did a presentation and wrote an article on "What Makes a Top 25 Starting Pitcher." In that article, which you can read here, I also discussed that last year, the average ADP of the top 25 starting pitchers was 182.3 (taken from NFBC’s Online Championship data, 12-team leagues). Only six of the top 25 starting pitchers were drafted inside the top 50 picks, and another six were drafted between picks 51 and 100. Perhaps more surprisingly, seven pitchers who finished inside the top 25 were drafted outside the top 200 picks. As a result, my general approach to drafting pitching in a 12-team league (and this article will specifically focus on 12-team leagues) is to wait to draft starting pitching. I usually won’t take a starting pitcher in the first four or five rounds of a draft, but then I will try to have at least three starters and one closer by the end of the 10th or 11th round, depending on how the board shakes out.
Below, I’ll walk you through my basic strategy for how to approach starting pitching in each section of your draft and some of the pitchers I’m targeting in those sections.
Starting Pitching Draft Plan for Fantasy Baseball
ADP is taken from NFBC Online Championship Drafts (12-team leagues) from February 17th to March 3rd (27 drafts)
Rounds 1-4 (Picks 1-48)
As I mentioned before, my preference is to avoid drafting a starting pitcher in this range. If one of the top-tier arms (Skubal, Crochet, Skenes, Bryan Woo, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cristopher Sanchez) falls below their ADP, I'm not going to turn my nose up at it, but I'm not actively looking for starting pitchers in these rounds.
Rounds 5-6 (Picks 49-72)
This is the range I would prefer to draft my ace in. I will sometimes double-tap starting pitching in these two rounds if two pitchers I like really fall to me, but this is also the range where I may draft one starter and one closer after creating my foundation of five-category hitters.
I have Max Fried (ADP: 53) as my 7th-ranked starter, so I'm happy to take him here if he falls. To me, Fried is just about as safe as they come. He’s had minor injuries over the last two seasons, but we know that when he’s on the mound, he is really good in every category without being a true elite standout in any. There is very little risk with Fried, and his team context should make him a candidate to lead the league in wins.
In early drafts, I've been ending up with George Kirby (ADP: 67) often. I have him as my 14th-ranked starter, but I'm happy with him as my ace if I wait this long and load up on hitters. I could then double-up and take Kyle Bradish (ADP: 72) as a high-end SP2; however, I'd also be OK with Bradish as my SP1 if I just kept waiting and waiting to draft pitching. I look at him a bit the same as I looked at deGrom heading into 2025 after deGrom came back and made three starts in 2024. We have seen that Bradish is healthy, and we’ve seen what he can do when he is. His slider and curve are elite secondary pitches that will help him rack up strikeouts, and he understands that his four-seamer isn’t an elite pitch, but he has a good approach and command of it to keep hitters off the barrel. I'd have to pair him with a more stable SP2, but I can see it working.
Also, even though I like Logan Webb (ADP: 59), I find myself not taking him here too often because he's my SP17, and I have Kirby and Bradish ranked higher. That being said, Webb is a perfectly solid option to lead your rotation if you wait this long.
Rounds 7-11 (Picks 73-132)
If I come out of the first six rounds with one starting pitcher, then I’m generally trying to take at least two starting pitchers in this section. My goal is always to build a starting rotation that has four starters who I feel are locked-in, set-it-and-forget-it starters I won't have to drop or worry about for the entire season. Obviously, things don't always go to plan, but if I can do that, I can start taking some risks with my next starting pitching targets.
I know Joe Ryan (ADP 82) is currently nursing a sore lower back, but that doesn't worry me long-term. Ryan’s season nose-dived a bit once the Twins started selling off pieces and not contending. I can’t really blame him for that. The talent is there, and I expect him to be on a new team (eventually) that may have some direction on how to establish a consistent approach with his secondaries. Even without a new team, Ryan has an elite fastball and a deep pitch mix that gives him safety even if that one secondary pitch hasn’t truly emerged. I have him as my SP15, so taking him in this range is great.
Eury Perez (ADP 83) keeps rising up draft boards, but I'm OK with that. Last year, he featured a sweeper with a 22% swinging strike rate to righties and a harder slider with a 21% swinging strike rate to lefties. He throws a 98 mph fastball with an elite zone rate and has a deep five-pitch mix. He’s now another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and I think this is the breakout season, which is why I have him ranked as my SP20.
I'm not generally a fan of targeting Framber Valdez (ADP: 86) because I think he gets overdrafted, but he is a solid pairing to a riskier SP1 like Bradish. I have Framber as my SP22, so I'm not gaga over him. He’s a two-pitch pitcher who relies heavily on his curveball and will have stretches of elite production and stretches where he gets hit too hard. However, he has never been bad, and I can’t see him becoming bad. Plus, now he pitches in an even better home park.
Michael King (ADP: 124) was my 7th-ranked starting pitcher last year, and even though that didn't pan out and his innings total may end up being closer to 150, I think we're forgetting how talented he is. I love him at this cost.
I like both Chase Burns (ADP: 99) and Emmet Sheehan (ADP: 117), but I'm generally not getting them at this price. I'm more into Burns at cost and have moved him up my rankings, but he's still SP32 for me. I'm a little concerned about his flexor strain from last year, even though he claims that was minor, and that his four-seam fastball gets hit pretty hard. That being said, I think we're going to see more of his changeup and curve this year, so that's helpful. Sheehan is another pitcher I really like, but I don't love how the Dodgers manage innings and how many starting pitchers that team has. It makes me prefer guys like King. I have Sheehan as my SP44, so I'm really only getting him if he falls.
Ryan Pepiot (ADP: 131) is another favorite in this tier. I have him as my SP24, so seeing him go this late makes him a target in nearly every draft for me. Like all Rays pitchers, he will no longer be pitching in a minor league park, which could mean fewer home runs, which were a major problem for him in 2025. He continues to rock really above-average H/9 rates and a solid swinging strike rate, and I think this is the season it comes together.
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
Rounds 12-14 (Picks 133-168)
As I said above, I mostly enter this range with three starting pitchers, so I'm looking at these rounds to fill out that top four core of starting pitchers. If I can get outside of the top 160-ish picks with four starters, then I'm super comfortable filling out the rest of my rotation with later-round picks.
Nathan Eovaldi (ADP: 146) is down here because of injuries, and I get it. It was really two injuries for him last year, as he was shut down in August with a rotator cuff strain, but then also underwent sports hernia surgery during the offseason. Eovaldi has said that he’s fully recovered from the rotator cuff strain and that he’s coming into spring training as healthy as he has in years past. That’s the key part for me. I don’t love drafting pitchers who are coming off a rotator cuff injury; however, Eovaldi has battled arm injuries many times throughout his career. When you draft him, you know that you’re getting good production when he’s on the mound, but not a full season of innings. That’s why his draft cost never gets too high. He's my SP37, and I'm more than fine with him as my fourth starter.
I always believed Sandy Alcantara (ADP: 147) was more of a safe SP2 than an ace. I was wrong for a while, but perhaps it’s settling in a bit now. Alcantara seemed to get a little bit back to himself at the end of the season, but he’s going to remain a low-upside arm with slightly more volume risk than we had seen previously. I’d prefer if he were traded, but Miami was feisty down the stretch, so maybe they could be in for a solid season. However, he's my SP25 right now, so I love this cost for him.
Drew Rasmussen (ADP: 148) might be my favorite pick in the draft right now at cost. The Rays have said he's likely to push 170 innings this season, and he's my SP23 right now. He’ll no longer be pitching home games in a minor league park, and I think he could push six or seven innings in most of his starts now. He’s not the highest upside arm, but he has been great since transitioning to the rotation, and I expect that to continue.
Trevor Rogers (ADP: 151) came out of nowhere in 2026 to put up a top-25 season in a little over 100 innings. It was so out of the blue that it may seem like a fluke, but he rode a new sinker and a plus changeup to that tremendous season. Should we believe that he can do it again? I think it’s MOSTLY true, but I’m not banking on another top 25 season with such mediocre fastballs. He’ll be solid for you, but he’s a mid-rotation arm for your fantasy team, and so that works as an SP4.
I love the raw stuff Bubba Chandler (ADP: 155) possesses, but I haven't loved how inconsistent his command has been this spring. I'm trying not to let that impact my evaluation, but we know he had some poor stretches of command in the minors as well last year. I think Chandler can miss bats, and I think the Pirates will keep him locked into their rotation, but I can't be 100% sure.
Could MacKenzie Gore (ADP: 161), on a new team with veterans like Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, help him unlock the consistency that has been evading him? His new slider looked great early on, but we continue to see Gore struggle to maintain a level for a full season. Still, at this price, you're getting a pitcher with the upside to be an ace at the cost of somebody who could be on the fringe of your rotation. If you want even more detailed thoughts, I recorded a video on the Gore trade this offseason.
Shota Imanaga (ADP: 165) dealt with home run issues in 2025, and I think those will crop up again in 2026, but that's less of an issue at this cost. He also battled a hamstring injury; however, I think the talent is there, and the Cubs should be a good team with a solid defense behind him. He doesn’t walk batters, which will keep his WHIP down, but his fastball velocity dipped last year, and I just don’t think he’s anywhere near the fantasy ace that we previously thought he was.
I think Tatsuya Imai (ADP: 166) is being impacted by Roki Sasaki's poor season last year and the random rumors about Imai's potential innings cap, which we have confirmation of. The 27-year-old is coming off a strong season that saw him post a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 178/45 K/BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings in Japan. It was his second straight season with 163 or more innings, and he continued to show that he could return his mid-to-high 90s velocity on his fastball over a full year. He also posted a career-high strikeout rate that was better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s mark in his final NPB season. In addition to his high strikeout totals, Imai has proven to be a solid groundball pitcher with a six-pitch mix that includes a slider, changeup, splitter, curveball, and sinker. I have him as my SP31, and I think people are unfairly worried about his performance or his innings totals, and I’m more than happy to scoop up shares.
Robbie Ray (ADP: 167) added a changeup and had some stretches of solid production that push for top 25 value, but he also has below-average fastball velocity and command, which I don’t love. He still only throws one fastball type, and the swing-and-miss wasn’t really present for him this past season, but you no longer have to draft him as your ace or SP2, so those worries concern me less at this cost.
Rounds 15-19 (Picks 169-228)
So at this point, I have four starters, and I’m trying to fill out the end of my rotation. I anticipate starting six starting pitchers every week in a typical NFBC format that gives me nine pitcher spots, so that means I'm likely looking to add two more pitchers who are "starters" for me. Plenty of high-upside arms fall into this range, but they are also the ones who have some serious concerns about innings or even their role. That's why I'd like to have four starting pitchers before I get to this point and then just hope that I can get stretches of good production out of these arms, knowing that I'm also going to be using the waiver wire or perhaps hitting on a late-round dart throw.
Unlike in 15-team leagues, I’m not looking for “safe” pitchers to be my SP5 or SP6. I expect that I’m going to churn the final spots of my rotation during the year, so I want to focus on drafting pitchers who have clear starting jobs and the upside to be elite producers for me if things break right. If things don’t break right and I have to drop a player I picked at 203, I’m not really worried about it too much.
I'm so in on Edward Cabrera (ADP: 181), and I love this cost since he's my SP35. He made the change to use his sinker as his primary fastball in 2025, and it led to massive improvements in command. That allowed him to get ahead in the zone more and set up his plus slider and curve, both of which had SwStr% over 18.5%. Yes, there may always be an injury or innings cloud over Cabrera, but we have finally seen him start to make the changes we wanted to see from him, and I think a new organization is only going to push those changes further. Plus, the Cubs have a much better infield defense than the Marlins, so I think we have the makings of a potential top-25 arm here if we get a full season of health (which we probably won’t, hence the ranking).
Cade Horton (ADP: 182) had a tremendous year and showed a deeper arsenal than we originally thought with a much-improved changeup. However, he also had a 20% strikeout rate and gave up a lot of contact. It’s not hard contact, and the defense behind him is good, so that works, and he seems like a pitcher who will eat 180 innings per season, and he showed some increased velocity this spring, which would be nice if it remained into the season.
Shane Baz (ADP: 196) is another pitcher who will benefit from no longer playing in a minor league park, and is another pitcher I discussed in my First Pitch Arizona presentation. His inability to truly replace his former slider has led to some swing-and-miss concerns against righties, but he has never really allowed hard contact, and the new cutter is a solid enough pitch against righties that the floor feels a bit safe here. I’m also not ruling out the possibility that he continues to tweak his pitch mix and finds that swing-and-miss pitch to righties again.
We know Shane McClanahan (ADP: 209) has the upside to be a fantasy ace. We just haven't seen him pitch in a while. He missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was expected to start the 2025 season in the Rays’ rotation. However, a nerve issue in his final start of spring training led to him being sidelined all year. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander said that McClanahan has “a day in the rotation,” which means that fantasy managers should expect him to be ready to start the season and also pitch once every five days for Tampa Bay. McClanahan has a career 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate. He is an elite starting pitcher. If we assume that he will be rusty and on a pitch count early on in the season, then McClanahan could be just a decent starter early on and then settle back into a solid arm. To me, that makes him a good target if you’re outside the top 40 starting pitchers and already have a strong foundation for your rotation.
The Aaron Nola (ADP: 212) "even year" streak will obviously continue. Kidding. Kind of. Nola battled injuries throughout the season, but he didn’t showcase a velocity dip or much of a change in his elite curveball. I expect a bounce-back season for Nola, to a certain extent, but I think he is more of a fantasy SP4-5 at this point in his career, so I'm OK with where he's going.
Andrew Abbott (ADP: 219) is not a favorite of everybody, but some pitch mix changes led to a little more swing-and-miss in his game in 2025. He leaned into his curveball more and added in a cutter, which helped alleviate some of the pressure on his four-seam fastball. He also just got better as a pitcher. His changeup took a step forward and will always perform well against righties. He’s kind of like Trevor Rogers in that way. I just wish he had a better home park.
Rounds 20-27 (Picks 229-324)
We have now reached the dart throw rounds of your draft, and I will ideally have at least six starters already, and am just looking for guys to add to my bench. In a 12-team league, that means high-upside fliers who could be difference-makers if they hit. This is not a 15-team league, so there are always going to be starting pitchers on the waiver wire. I don’t want to use my late-round picks in a 12-team league to draft a guy like Seth Lugo or Casey Mize, who will likely be fine this year but don’t have the upside to be a real difference-maker. Those types of guys are ALWAYS on the wire in 12-team leagues. I want a guy I can make a breakout case for, and then I want to see if he looks anything like that type of pitcher in his first start or two, so I can hold onto him or drop him for whoever has looked good in the first couple of weeks. That also means drafting guys who have clear jobs, and I know I'll see pitch in the first week of the season.
Ryan Weathers (ADP: 231) is, yet again, a spring training darling after coming out and throwing 100 mph in his second Yankees start. Weathers was a “sleeper” in spring training due to a bump in velocity and some pitch mix tweaks, but he was limited to 38.1 innings and posted a 3.99 ERA with 22.3% strikeout rate that was also his career high. Those are not great numbers. However, Weathers does have the raw tools for a much better season. If the velocity holds and he throws his sinker as often as he claims he will, that should help him versus left-handed hitters, and then his changeup and slider can be good weapons for righties. Of course, the biggest obstacle to success for him will be health.
Jack Leiter (ADP: 234) has a good four-seam fastball with plus velocity, good extension, and a great height-adjusted vertical attack angle, which allows it to miss plenty of bats at the top of the zone. He added a sinker for strikes that allowed the fastball to play up, and his changeup produced whiffs to both righties and lefties. However, he only had a 23% strikeout rate last year because both his slider and curve did not perform well against righties in two-strike counts. The sinker led to some blister issues, and he still has some command issues with his four-seamer. He’s only 25 years old, and we could easily see growth this season, but we’ll need to see his secondaries take a step forward in 2026.
I might be the high man on Kodai Senga (ADP: 243) this year. He has not been the same guy we saw in his rookie season, but I don’t think he’s as far off as many believed. He still has that solid cutter to act as his high strike rate fastball and an elite Ghost Fork for swings and misses. The execution of his pitches wasn’t as precise as we saw in 2023, but Senga was so good early in the 2025 season that he posted a 3.02 ERA on the year despite utterly melting down after he returned from a hamstring injury. That’s the other component: injuries have played a huge role in his struggles over the last two years. However, he’s not dealing with arm issues, and I still believe in the arsenal, so I’m willing to buy back in if the price dips this far.
Noah Cameron (ADP: 257) is the epitome of a SWATCH, which is a term Nick Pollack coined on our On the Corner podcast, which stands for Southpaw With a Tight Changeup. Cameron is a lower-velocity pitcher with good command of a deep arsenal and a changeup that eats up right-handed hitters. I’m not sure how trustworthy that profile will be year-over-year, but that approach led to tons of success last year, and I could see it happening this year as well. Especially since he has good defense behind him.
Ryne Nelson (ADP: 263) remains an elite fastball pitcher with a limited arsenal of secondaries. I do like his fastball, and his combination of elite vertical movement and low arm angle makes it really hard to hit. Having that as a foundation is great. But we’ve now seen two full seasons where he can seem to land on a secondary he trusts or one that is effective enough to be relied on. Unless he locks in on one of them, it’s hard to see much growth for him, but what we have seen has been solid so far.
Mike Burrows (ADP: 267) showed himself to be a solid pitcher last year with a good collection of secondary pitches and a mediocre fastball. Well, so far this spring, the Astros have him using the sinker a lot more often, which will keep hitters off that four-seam and also induce more weak contact against righties. I think this is shaping up to be a pretty good season for Burrows.
One of my first articles of the season was an article about post-hype sleeper starting pitchers. That article featured detailed write-ups on Joey Cantillo (ADP: 277), Andrew Painter (ADP: 284), Zebby Matthews (ADP: 290), and Reid Detmers (ADP: 325).
I also wrote a column earlier in the offseason about some of the starting pitchers going late in drafts who I felt had top 25 upside in their putch mix and potential role. Some of the pitchers in that article were: Braxton Ashcraft (ADP: 259), Sean Manaea (ADP: 278), Parker Messick (ADP: 300), and Zach Eflin (ADP: 356). I'd encourage you to read both of those articles for more detailed write-ups on why I like those arms this year.
The injury to Pablo Lopez has opened up a potential spot for Mick Abel (ADP: 341), and he's trying to run with it this spring. He has a legit six-pitch mix with a four-seam fastball that is good enough and can succeed up in the strike zone. He also has a harder slider and a sweeper, and pairs that with a plus changeup and then a get-me-over curve. I think he has the pitch mix to miss bats to both righties and lefties. All he needs is a locked-in rotation spot.
Johan Oviedo (ADP: 357) has the leg up on the final spot in the Red Sox rotation. Last year was his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and the location on his slider was not precise. The pitch caught too much of the plate, which limited his strikeout upside. It's a really strong slider. The key for Oviedo will be four-seam command. If he shows even league-average four-seam command, he could take a major step forward.
Whichever way you slice it, there are so many ways to attack starting pitching in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts, so don’t feel pressure to jump in early and have some fun leaning into upside as your draft nears the end.
Category: General Sports
