Women’s NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Massive fight for bids in the Big 12 tournament

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

For many March Madness-bound teams, conference tournaments are a cherry on top of their seasons. They serve as a chance to take home hardware while preparing for the NCAA Tournament as well as an opportunity to improve seeding. But for teams on or around the bubble, conference tournaments are their last shot at a bid.

With several bubble teams in the Big 12 and the ACC, those conference tournaments will have the biggest bubble implications. But of course, if an unexpected squad wins their mid-major conference tournament that could result in a stolen bid.

Big 12

Six Big 12 squads are either on or near the bubble. Iowa State is just above, while Colorado, Utah and Arizona State are firmly on the bubble line, and BYU and Kansas are just below. That means there is a whole lot to gain, and even more to lose, in this tournament. Let’s break down the bracket.

BYU, Arizona State and Kansas all play in the first round. A loss for any likely means a popped bubble. Utah, Iowa State and Colorado all received first-round byes. Because of its overall resume — which includes a NET ranking of 33 and two Quad 1 wins — Iowa State could likely withstand a second-round loss.

But Utah and Colorado need to advance to keep March Madness hopes alive. Any wins after that would simply add to their resumes. Of course, this isn’t an exact science. If Iowa State loses its first game and all the other bubble teams across conferences advance (though this isn’t likely), then the Cyclones could still miss out. The best advice for any bubble team is simple: Win and keep on winning.

ACC

The Big 12 takes the title of “bubbliest conference,” but the ACC isn’t far behind with five teams hovering around the in-out line. Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Syracuse and Stanford are fighting for their postseason futures.

Stanford is the furthest outside of the bubble, which means the Cardinal need to beat Miami in the first round and Notre Dame in the second to get back into consideration. Virginia and Clemson play each other in the second round, so the winner will receive a boost. Both could be safe regardless. Clemson’s recent wins over Notre Dame and Duke might be strong enough to get the Tigers in no matter. The same can be said for Virginia’s wins over Notre Dame and Louisville.

Syracuse is helped by the fact that it has wins over fellow ACC bubble teams Virginia, Clemson and Stanford, but the Orange lack a signature victory. If they get past either Cal or Wake Forest in the second round, then Louisville awaits. If Syracuse can knock off the Cardinals, they should be in.

Virginia Tech is in a similar position. The Hokies beat all four of their conference bubble foes and have three Quad 1 wins, but none truly stand out — like the Louisville and Duke wins from Virginia and Clemson. Getting out of the second round and then upsetting North Carolina is Virginia Tech’s best bet to ensure a bid.

Other impact conferences

Then Ivy League, the A-10 and the Summit League all have potential to steal bids. Princeton and Columbia are atop the Ivy, but if another team, like third-place Harvard, were to win the conference tournament, then the chances of both Columbia and Princeton getting into March Madness are slim but still possible. Of course, two or three Ivy teams earning bids would mean other bubble squads find themselves on the outside looking in.

The same goes for the A-10 and the Summit League. Rhode Island is the favorite to win the A-10, with Richmond hoping to sneak in as an at-large bid. But if George Mason, the conference’s second-place team, wins out, then the committee will have to decide if two or three A-10 teams deserve bids. There’s also the chance that only the automatic qualifier gets in.

In the Summit League, North Dakota State and South Dakota State have nearly identical resumes. But without signature wins — both NDSU and SDSU’s best victories are over each other — even finishing as the conference’s runner-up likely isn’t enough to earn an at-large. Of course, it depends on how the rest of the bubble teams finish, but right now, the Summit League looks like a one-bid conference.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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