ESPN's Tom Fornelli suggests that the Spartans can have a winning record with smart plays by Aidan Chiles or a losing record with Jonathan Smith scrambling for answers.
Michigan State Football: The Best and Worst Season Scenarios in 2025-26 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
Michigan State football's season, for the most part, will be decided on if quarterback Aidan Chiles makes a jump from sophomore to junior year.
The rising junior threw 11 interceptions in the 2024-25 season, but there was some light at the end of the tunnel as he minimized those errors in the second half of the season. He had a 59 percent completion average for 2,415 yards and 13 touchdowns. Chiles will need confidence, stat improvement, and growth in his decision-making to foster a winning record for the Spartans.
While the entire season is not exclusively dependent on the quarterback, Chiles decisions will end up affecting more than just offensive game strategy. It can either lighten the load on the defense or make it a lot tougher to climb out of a hole.
ESPN's Tom Fornelli anticipates that Michigan State's best case scenario is a 9-3 overall record in 2025-26. He claimed that even if accuracy remains an issue, improved decision-making will minimize costly mistakes. Defense continuing to advance as a result of smart offensive moves is also a piece to this best case scenario puzzle.
On the flip side, Fornelli gave Michigan State a 3-9 worst case scenario. This would be due to poor decision-making, turnovers piling up, and defense suffering due to Chiles' choices. Letting losses affect the team, like an early fall to Boston College in Week 2 as Fornelli suggested, would only make Chiles and the Spartans shaky consistently throughout the season.
As said, this is worst case scenario. Fornelli has Chiles benched at some point in the season with Michigan State in shambles in the offseason searching for ways to regroup and rebuild quickly before the 2026-27 season rolls up. This would push the starting quarterback into the portal and cause the public and the athletics program to point their concerns towards head coach Jonathan Smith.
Chiles found more of a groove in the offseason and is more comfortable in East Lansing. There are a lot of still-advancing strengths to be excited for, but Chiles knows that there's pressure (and doubt) on him to perform. Smith will need to put trust in his quarterback to make explosive plays. While those are high risk, high reward situations, this is where Chiles' confidence and decision-making come into play. If one of those falters, those explosive plays will work against Michigan State and be costly to the season as a whole.
Related: Big Ten All-Conference Teams: Michigan State Football Selections
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 4, 2025, where it first appeared.
Category: General Sports
