10 college football teams poised to disappoint this season

One reason why college football is fun, but also tricky to evaluate, is because one program’s trash is another program’s treasure. Plainly speaking, that now applies to personnel with players hopping from school to school in the transfer portal. But it’s always been true of the measuring sticks programs use to determine success.

For instance, what may be a disappointing record for a marquee program is instead a feat for a middling power-conference program.

With that in mind, Yahoo Sports broke down 10 teams that are poised to disappoint during the 2025 season.

[Also: 10 college football teams poised to bounce back this season]

Syracuse (2024: 10-3, 5-3 ACC)

The last two times Syracuse has hit the 10-win mark, the Orange have missed out on a bowl the following season. With Fran Brown at the helm, and his ability to pull in talent from the transfer portal, that kind of drop-off feels extreme. Even so, a semi-significant regression is probably in the cards. The Orange said goodbye to Kyle McCord, who led the FBS in passing by more than 450 yards last season before hearing his name called in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. They also lost their top receiver, Jackson Meeks, to the pros and their second-leading receiver, Trebor Peña, to Penn State this offseason. Oh, and tight end Oronde Gadsen II — another 900-plus-yard receiver last year — was scooped up in the fifth round of the draft. 

It begs the question: Will the Syracuse offense be so pass-dominant in 2025? Former Notre Dame backup Steve Angeli and former LSU backup Rickie Collins are competing for McCord’s old role. Whoever wins the job will have former five-star wideout Johntay Cook II at their disposal. He transferred in from Texas, where he caught just 16 total passes in two years. Finding more offensive balance will be key in 2025. Syracuse averaged the third-fewest yards per carry (3.16) of any ACC team last season. The Orange brought back a good dose of experience on defense, but that unit was 96th nationally in fewest points per game allowed. Last year, Syracuse threw the ball around the yard and won 7-of-9 one-score games. That’s hard to keep up, especially against a stiffer group of opponents this time around.

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Missouri (2024: 10-3, 5-3 SEC)

Missouri has won 21 games over the last two seasons: The Tigers are 10-1 in one-score games in that span. The margin of error is slim in those do-or-die scenarios, and thrilling wins are harder to pull off with an unproven starting quarterback. Brady Cook is now in the NFL. Beau Pribula, formerly with Penn State, and former four-star prospect Sam Horn are vying for the QB1 gig. Fortunately for them, they’ll have some help in the backfield. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has a track record of locating smaller-school running backs in the portal. Last year, it was Nate Noel from Appalachian State. Years before that, it was Cody Schrader, who started his college career at Division II Truman State. Now, Drinkwitz has Louisiana-Monroe transfer Ahmad Hardy in tow. 

Hardy ran for 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns as a true freshman. That said, he’ll be running behind a transfer-heavy offensive line at Missouri. The Tigers also turned to the portal to replace their top-two receivers. Defensively, there’s much more continuity. Seven starters are back from a group that allowed only 20.4 points per game, including defensive end Zion Young and tackle-hungry nickel Daylan Carnell. A strong defense and an average offense would lead to several more one-score games. That’s where some regression to the mean could come into play. Drinkwitz will likely need to hit on a high percentage of the offensive transfers he acquired to avoid that reality and stay in the upper echelon of the SEC.

Illinois (2024: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten)

Illinois is getting plenty of pub as the Big Ten dark horse this offseason. That’s a recipe for disappointment — even if the Fighting Illini end up having a pretty good season! And that’s where I fall on this version of Bret Bielema’s team. Another 10-win season could be hard to replicate against a slate of opponents that’s not as intimidating as it is selectively dangerous. The Illini’s schedule includes road tests at Duke and Indiana in the first four weeks. Then Ohio State visits later on, and the week after that Illinois travels to play a Washington team we're high on. Factor in a possible Big Ten misstep, which the Illini had last year against a decent Minnesota team, and eight regular-season wins feels more realistic. Getting to nine regular-season wins, like last year, is possible. But even then, Illinois would be on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in. Is that a disappointment? It feels like it, with the way Illinois is being talked about right now. 

Look, there’s a lot to like up and down the roster. Gabe Jacas is listed as an EDGE, but more than anything he’s a nightmare for opposing offenses. There’s stability in the back end. Luke Altmyer quietly posted the third-most “Big Time Throws” (Pro Football Focus’ metric for passes “with excellent ball location and timing) of any Big Ten quarterback last year. Without last year’s top-two receivers, namely third-round pick Pat Bryant, Altmyer will need West Virginia transfer Hudson Clement and Ball State transfer Justin Bowick to step up. Still, the Illini are fourth nationally in ESPN’s returning production rankings. It’s no gimme, though, they'll bring back the good fortune that helped make 2024 so magical. In addition to dodging serious injury issues, Illinois won two overtime games and beat Rutgers on the final play of regulation. Kansas and South Carolina both had chances for game-winning drives late, and Illinois held. We're not predicting an Illinois collapse. We just don’t see a run to the CFP, either.

Tennessee (2024: 10-3, 6-2 SEC)

It will be hard watching Tennessee this season without wondering what could have been had Nico Iamaleava not become what at least initially looked like the first-ever college football holdout. He says he transferred to UCLA to be closer to home, but reports that surfaced before his departure about his — or his advisers’ — desire for more NIL money from Tennessee, suggested other offseason motives. Regardless, Iamaleava is at UCLA, where new Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar came from. Aguilar, who played at Appalachian State before his pit stop in Westwood, has to learn his third offense in less than a year. He has to do that in the shadow of Iamaleava, who didn’t realize his five-star potential as a true freshman but did enough as a dual threat to get Tennessee to its first-ever CFP. Aguilar also has to shake an interception problem. He’s tossed 24 of them over the last two seasons, completing a gunslinger stat line that also includes 56 touchdowns and 6,760 passing yards in that span. 

If opponents continue to limit Heupel’s originally explosive Tennessee aerial attack with two-high safety coverage, the run game will be critical again. Dylan Sampson ran for 22 touchdowns and close to 1,500 yards last season, but he’s in the NFL now. DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis are capable of filling at least most of that void. They’ll have to, because along with potential turnover issues at quarterback, Tennessee has a wide receiver corps that inspires more questions than confidence at the moment. Chris Brazzell II, the team’s fourth-leading wideout last year, is joined by underclassmen Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley, who combined for only 10 catches in 2024. Tennessee won’t miss a bowl or anything. Its defense is too good. In fact, it could be even better than last year’s unit that allowed 16.1 points per game. Given the uncertainty on the other side of the ball, though, a return to the CFP, or even 10 wins, feels out of reach.

USC (2024: 7-6, 4-5 Big Ten)

USC is probably a year away from taking a national championship swing. The Trojans are on pace to finish the 2026 cycle with the No. 1-ranked recruiting class, according to Rivals, and, of the 16 transfers they reeled in this offseason, less than half are seniors. Lincoln Riley, despite struggling in his first Big Ten season and falling short of double-digit wins back-to-back years for the first time in his head coaching career, appears to be keeping the eye on the prize. This year might not be what USC fans are looking for though. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was fine last season after taking over for a benched Miller Moss. That said, the former UNLV starter threw a combined five picks against Notre Dame and Texas A&M. 

Riley’s known for his quarterback whispering, except that reputation took a bit of a hit with Moss not panning out. Maiava will have some weapons in the backfield, thanks to the arrival of New Mexico transfer Eli Sanders and JUCO talent Waymond Jordan. The wide receiver room isn’t as deep as last year’s iteration. Then again, the one-two punch of slot star Makai Lemon and contested-catch threat Ja’Kobi Lane is still around. D’Anton Lynn impressed in his first season as defensive coordinator, and he’s got solid pieces at each level of the defense, including linebacker Eric Gentry and safety Kamari Ramsey. USC could win eight or nine regular-season games, or maybe seven. But until Riley has another game changer at quarterback, the Trojans likely have some distance from the CFP.

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Iowa State (2024: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12)

We’ll learn a bunch about last year’s Big 12 runner-up before Week 1, and that’s because Iowa State plays Kansas State in Dublin in Week 0. Head coach Matt Campbell led the Cyclones to their first-ever double-digit-win season and their second-ever AP top-15 finish in 2024. It’s hard to go up from there, especially against a schedule that features Kansas State, Arizona State, BYU, Iowa and TCU. 

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht benefited from a pair of Day 2 NFL Draft selections, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both of whom tallied at least 80 receptions and 1,180 receiving yards last year. There was a drop-off in wideout production after that, meaning that Becht’s top-returning receiver is an 11-catch Carson Brown. Chase Sowell transferred from East Carolina, and he can take the top off a defense. Those two will be relied on, and so will running backs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III. Even if the offense achieves balance, the defense will have to hold up its end of the bargain without its top three linemen from last season, plus a handful of key defensive backs from the 2024 squad. The former is concerning, particularly since Iowa State was a measly 110th in the country against the run last year.

Vanderbilt (2024: 7-6, 3-5 SEC)

It’s a hard-knock life in the SEC. Last year, Vanderbilt won its most games in a single season since 2013 when James Franklin was still head coach, and yet the Commodores still had a losing record in conference play. That’s not what people remember, for what it’s worth. Memories were made from the program’s first winning season in more than a decade, highlighted by its first victory over Alabama in 40 years. Diego Pavia became a household name. Then the former JUCO quarterback acquired another year of eligibility by suing the NCAA. He’s back with another dose of swagger, and he’s got his former New Mexico State tight end, Eli Stowers, as well as the team’s top running back, Sedrick Alexander, in the fold for another season. 

But the Vandy offensive line lost four starters and now has a transfer makeover that may or may not look good. Pavia is fun, only his brute, dual-threat style is conducive to injury. The Commodores need Pavia to stay healthy and special. They also need to at least maintain their top-50 scoring defense. And they need to keep winning the turnover battle. Vandy went from second-to-last (-0.25) to second in the conference (0.69) in turnover margin per game from 2023 to 2024. Pulling upsets takes a lot. Vandy brought it to the table more often than not last season. Doing so for a second year in a row is a lot to ask of an SEC underdog.

Colorado (2024: 9-4, 7-2 Big 12)

Deion Sanders has already proved the doubters wrong at Colorado. He contended for a conference title and led the Buffaloes to their best record since 2016. He also beat bladder cancer this offseason, adding another victory to his always-impressive Pro and College Football Hall of Fame-decorated résumé. But losing a two-way star who doubled as the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner, and his son, who doubled as his starting quarterback the last four years, to the NFL was always going to be hard. Aside from Coach Prime himself, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders were the constant in Boulder the last two seasons. Since their departure, the elder Sanders has brought in the next wave of transfers, another group more than 30 deep. Colorado will look different on paper and, in all likelihood, schematically. 

Former Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter is a dual threat, unlike Shedeur. Maybe that will spark a Buffs running game that’s been mostly invisible through Sanders’ first two seasons at the helm. That is, if Colorado can finally crack the code up front with another offensive line that’s mostly new. What the Buffs did figure out last year was their defense, thanks to now-second-year coordinator Robert Livingston. He’s playing with a new deck, though, and it’s … transfer-heavy. Former USF safety Tawfiq Byard will be flying around, and Conference USA imports Reginald Hughes and Martavius French should bolster the second level. Really, it’s hard to know what to expect from Colorado. The schedule isn’t too forgiving, either, with four straight games against BYU, TCU, Iowa State and bounce-back candidate Utah.

UNLV (2024: 11-3, 6-1 Mountain West)

UNLV lost to only one team not named Boise State last season, and that was Syracuse — in overtime. The Broncos taking the Rebels down not once but twice slightly muted UNLV’s program-record-tying 11-win season. Barry Odom left to try to resurrect Purdue, and Dan Mullen hit pause on his media career to take over the reins in Vegas. Mullen, who previously held head coaching jobs at Mississippi State and Florida, has an intriguing roster on his hands. Like Odom, he’s leaning on the portal to get things going out west. It’s a mixed bag of former power-conference players, really. 

Former Ohio State and Tulsa quarterbacks coach Corey Dennis is tasked with coordinating the UNLV offense, which will likely ride with either Michigan transfer Alex Orji or Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea at quarterback. Orji made three starts last year with the Wolverines and threw for only 133 yards. His legs were scarier than his arm. As for Colandrea, he might trust his arm too much. He posted a 26:20 touchdown-to-interception in two seasons at Virginia. But Orji and Colandrea get second chances at UNLV, and that’s kind of the theme across a roster that’s littered with the names of big, but former, schools. Look no further than the front seven, where former Florida and LSU defensive lineman Jalen Lee has reunited with Mullen and where ex-Miami linebacker Elias Rudolph and ex-UCLA linebacker Isaiah Patterson compete. It’ll be up to Mullen to piece the puzzle together. Odom made it look easy, even sidestepping an NIL opt-out at quarterback midseason last year. It might take Mullen a minute to get up to speed. A lot’s changed since his 2021 season at Florida.

Marshall (2024: 10-3, 7-1 Sun Belt)

The Thundering Herd won the Sun Belt in 2024. Their reward? Completely start over. That’s what happened when now-former Marshall head coach Charles Huff surprisingly left for the head job at Southern Miss, the worst team in the Thundering Herd’s own conference last season. Huff took several Marshall players with him, including quarterback Braylon Braxton. When the dust settled, there weren’t enough guys for the school to play in the Independence Bowl last season. Former North Carolina State and West Virginia defensive coordinator Tony Gibson is taking over for Huff and is now responsible for a Thundering Herd team that didn’t bring back a player who passed or rushed for a yard on last year’s team. Major turnover happened in the trenches, too. That’s just the start of it, honestly. 

Marshall clocked in dead last in ESPN’s returning production rankings. The Thundering Herd aren’t devoid of talent. It’s just that the talent is mostly new to Huntington, West Virginia. Gibson welcomed a whopping 55 transfers this offseason. Ten of them are wide receivers, and two — Adrian Norton from Akron and Ben Turner from West Liberty — logged more than 800 receiving yards each in 2024. But the run game could be the first mode of attack for an offense coordinated by former Jacksonville State OC-turned-interim head coach Rod Smith. That’s where running backs Michael Allen, Jo’Shon Barbie and Tony Mathis Jr., transfers from UNLV, McNeese State and Houston, respectively, will come into the picture. They’ll be running behind an offensive line that boasts 6-foot-9 offensive tackle Tyler McDuffie, a transfer from Hampton. It’s more of the same on defense, where eye-catching, small-school production and mostly unproven, bigger-school names occupy what will end up being some kind of two-deep. This could get ugly in Year 1. But maybe Gibson’s rebuild starts faster than expected.