San Diego may regret this.
A relief pitcher has never been traded for as much on-paper value as what Mason Miller cost the San Diego Padres on Thursday before the MLB trade deadline.
It has a chance to be a generational haul for the Athletics, and a potential generational mistake by the Padres.
This has nothing inherently to do with Miller. He's a brilliant closer with a fastball that touches 104 miles per hour who isn't a free agent until 2030.
But multiple parts of that sentence spell danger.
Pitchers are riskier than position players due to injury likelihood. Relief pitchers are riskier than starting pitchers due to the fickle nature of their small-sample-size jobs.
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Miller may be as safe a closer commodity as they come. But he's still a relief pitcher who throws so hard that many would assume it's not a matter of if but when for a serious arm injury.
And to get him, the Padres gave up Leo De Vries, the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball who has a case as the most talented player in the entire minor leagues.
San Diego traded good young pitching with De Vries, too, but this deal will always age under the umbrella of Miller vs. De Vries.
I don’t care how good the reliever is
— AT (@YankeeWRLD) July 31, 2025
There is absolutely no universe whatsoever where I give up a consensus Top 5 prospect in baseball in a trade where the centerpiece is an RP https://t.co/E6spfvreye
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De Vries is still just 18 years old. His whole baseball future is ahead of him.
The switch-hitting shortstop from the Dominican Republic is batting .245 with 19 doubles, four triples, eight homers and eight steals this season at High-A Fort Wayne. He's an average of 4.3 years younger than the rest of the players in the Midwest League. Rarely, if ever, do players of De Vries' age play at High-A (and this is after he played most of last season as a 17-year old at Single-A, another thing that just doesn't happen).
Miller is phenomenal. He might be great for the next five years in San Diego.
But the value added from a closer, even if healthy, is nowhere near the value added from a superstar shortstop.
So in taking this risk, the Padres better hope they either win a World Series where Miller closes out the clinching game, or that De Vries doesn't pan out. Because this deal has a lot of ways it could look much worse in a few years.
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Category: Baseball
