Ryan Poles has made a habit of trading away picks for players who need to be extended. One of his highest profile moves was the trade for Montez Sweat.
When the 2-6 Chicago Bears traded for Montez Sweat in October 2023, they gave up a second-round pick that ended up being 40th overall–and that was almost certainly looking like a pick in the top half of the second round. It did not save the season (they finished with double-digit losses for the second time in a row under Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus) but it did pay some dividends. Since the trade, Sweat has finished every season as the team’s sack leader. He has been an indentified leader on the defense. Obviously, though, the team could have taken an Edge defender in the draft instead. Would that have been better?
From a box score perspective, the answer so far seems obvious. The Bears likely would have lost a game or two more without Tez, so Braden Fiske (who went at #39, one spot ahead of the pick Chicago traded) might have been available. So far Fiske has managed 1 PBU, 11.5 sacks, and 14 TFLs (or 26.5 plays where he decisively won the down for the defense).
From 2011-2020, Edge Defenders taken in the top half of the second round averaged 27 games, 12 starts, 3 defended passes, 6.5 sacks, and 8 TFLs in their first two years. Here are the four most productive players from that group (n=35, so essentially the top 10%) in terms of disruptive plays in their first two years:
Darrell Taylor: 2 PDs, 16 sacks, 15 TFLs (33 disruptive plays). He’s the sack leader but that’s the only category he leads.
Jabaal Sheard: 5 PDs, 15.5 sacks, 18 TFLs (38.5 disruptive plays). He leads TFLs of these four and is only behind by half a sack. It would be interesting to speculate how he might have played had he not been injured.
Harold Landry: 3 PDs, 13.5 sacks, 17 TFLs (33.5 disruptive plays). Landry made the Pro Bowl his fourth year, but he still had a solid entry into the NFL.
Preston Smith: 7 PDs, 12.5 sacks, 14 TFLs (33.5 disruptive plays). Smith only spent four years in Washington before ending up…somewhere.
If you could add the best performance of all of these players together, you’d have Montez Sweat.
Montez Sweat: 7 PDs, 15.5 sacks, 22 TFLs (44.5 disruptive plays). He matches the highest total for PBUs, he’s a half-sack short of the highest mark available there, and he’s got an extra 4 TFLs to make up for it. Montez Sweat has, since being traded for, matched or exceeded the total disruptive ability of the best-case scenario of how that same draft pick could have been spent.
However, it’s not that simple. That second-rounder would have had two more years under contract before needing to be extended, and Sweat is currently the 12th-highest-paid Edge defender in the league (the average value of his contract extension is $24.5million, roughly ten times what an Edge Defender drafted in the second round would have cost). Chicago is now facing tough decisions with the cap, and getting strong results on a losing team in 2023 does little to help the Bears with their aspirations now.
So, was the trade worth it?
To me, the trade was necessary. Chicago needed to try to change the culture, and the defense needed a stabilizing leader who could help to show the young talent how to win. Now it’s your turn, though. With the advantage of hindsight, was the Sweat trade a good deal for Chicago?
Category: General Sports
