Missouri basketball is on the March Madness bubble. See where experts like USA Today, ESPN, and CBS Sports project MU for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Missouri basketball kept its NCAA Tournament push going with a win on the road, but the Tigers are still very much involved on the March Madness bubble.
Mizzou (16-7, 6-4 SEC) has won its past two games in SEC play, beating Mississippi State on its home floor on Jan. 31 before picking up a 78-59 win over South Carolina on the road this past Saturday.
Here’s what Missouri’s current tournament résumé looks like, and a glimpse at where the experts currently have the Tigers seeded and tabbed to travel for March Madness. All of the outlets’ projections were updated on the morning of Tuesday, Feb. 10.
Current Missouri basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness
Missouri’s NET ranking: No. 62
Quad 1 record: 2-4
Quad 2 record: 3-3
Quad 3 record: 2-0
Quad 4 record: 9-0
Missouri has climbed seven spots in the NET rankings between Tuesday, Feb. 3, and Tuesday, Feb. 10 and now is ranked No. 62 in the nation.
The quadrant system accounts for the location of the game and the opposing team’s NET ranking. Quad 1 games, for instance, are at home against teams ranked Nos. 1-30 in the NET, on a neutral court against teams ranked Nos. 1-50, and on the road against teams ranked Nos. 1-75.
Mizzou faces Texas A&M on the road on Wednesday, which will be a Quad 1 game against the team currently ranked No. 39 in the NET. The Tigers then face Texas, ranked No. 36, on Saturday at Mizzou Arena. That is currently a projected Quad 2 game.
USA Today lists Missouri basketball among ‘First Four Out’
Eddie Timanus, Erick Smith and Paul Myerberg at USA Today have left Missouri in their ‘First Four Out’ category, which means the Tigers are currently not in their projected field but about as close to it as they possibly could be.
These are essentially the teams ranked Nos. 69-72 and just outside of the 68-team field. Mizzou is listed as the second team outside of the field, just behind New Mexico.
USA Today’s last four teams into the field are currently UCLA, San Diego State, Ohio State and Miami. It’s worth keeping an eye on all of the above teams throughout February. They make up Mizzou’s primary competitors for an NCAA Tournament berth.
ESPN: Missouri basketball still among ‘First Four Out’
Joe Lunardi at ESPN has moved Missouri up in his projections, but not quite all the way into the field. Mizzou is the fifth team out of the field in Lunardi’s updated projection on Tuesday, Feb. 10. He listed the Tigers as the second team out in his “First Four Out” category.
ESPN’s last four teams into the field are Texas, Miami, San Diego State and New Mexico.
Missouri faces Texas on Saturday at Mizzou Arena, which could be a massively important game for NCAA Tournament selection.
CBS Sports: First Four appearance in Dayton
CBS Sports has Missouri in the 68-team field, but with a trip to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four on the cards.
The latest CBS Sports Bracketology model has tabbed Mizzou as one of the last four teams into the field, meaning the Tigers would be an 11-seed and off to Dayton, Ohio, for a matchup against Saint Mary’s. Miami and Oklahoma State are the other teams going to Dayton in this projection.
Bart Torvik: March Madness chance rises
Mizzou’s win over South Carolina has helped the Tigers’ chance at making the March Madness field in Bart Torvik’s algorithm.
The analytics site currently gives Mizzou a 32.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Feb. 10, which is based on 10,000 simulations run through its T-Ranketology ‘TourneyCast’ projections.
That is up from 16.6% one week ago.
That places Missouri as the second team out of the field, which would make it the top-ranked SEC team left out of the field in Torvik’s simulation.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Missouri basketball: March Madness 2026 projections for Tigers
Category: General Sports
