Previewing Louisville vs. NC State

Louisville Cardinals (17-6, 7-4) vs. NC State Wolfpack (18-6, 9-2)

Game Time: 7 p.m.

Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.

Television: ESPN

Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play), Jay Williams (analysis) and Molly McGrath (sideline)

Favorite: Louisville by 6.5

Series: Louisville leads, 15-14

Last Meeting: Louisville won 91-66 on Feb. 12, 2025 in Raleigh

Series History:

Projected Starting Lineups:

Louisville

• G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
• G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
• G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
• F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
• C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)

NC State

• G Tre Holloman (6-2, 195, Sr.)
• G Paul McNeil Jr. (6-5, 190, So.)
• G Quadir Copeland (6-6, 220, Sr.)
• F Darrion Williams (6-6, 225, Sr.)
• F Ven-Allen Lubin (6-9, 250, Sr.)

Injury Reports:

Statistics:

NC State’s Season to Date:

Relevant Videos:

About NC State:

With Duke losing to North Carolina at the buzzer on Saturday, it’s pretty easy to make the claim that there is no ACC team hotter than the NC State Wolfpack.

First-year head coach Will Wade is off to a strong ass start in conference play, leading the Pack to a 9-2 mark that includes a current six-game winning streak, it’s longest in ACC play in over two decades.

The most curious thing about this NC State team — and perhaps the most problematic for Louisville – is how much better they’ve been on the road than at home recently.

The Wolfpack is 6-0 away from home in conference play, a mark that includes wins over Clemson, SMU and Wake Forest. The team’s only loss in a true road game this season came all the way back on Dec. 3 at Auburn (83-73).

The two biggest keys to the Pack’s 6-0 ACC road record have been three-pointers and turnovers. NC State has made an average of 13.2 three-pointers per game and is shooting a scorching 48.2 percent from long range in its six ACC road wins. The Pack has also had single digit turnovers in all of those games and is averaging just 7.2 turnovers per game in ACC road contests. NC State has a 2.35 assist-to-turnover ratio (101-to-43) in road contests and a +32 turnover margin on the road.

In 11 road or neutral-site games, the Pack is shooting 48.4 percent, including 44.1 percent from three-point range, and averaging 84.9 points per game. NC State averages more threes per game away from Raleigh (11.6 per game in 11 games) than in home games (10.4 per game in 13 games).

Those numbers are scary.

NC State’s leading scorer at the moment is preseason ACC Player of the Year Darrion Williams (14.7 ppg). While Williams, a Texas Tech transfer who starred in last season’s NCAA Tournament, has had more rough stretches this season than Pack fans were hoping for, he’s been playing (mostly) his best basketball of the season as of late. Before a tough outing against Virginia Tech on Saturday (4 points on 1-of-9 shooting), Williams had scored 20 or more points in three consecutive games.

Standing 6’6, 225-pounds, Williams is an extremely versatile, high energy forward who had a reputation for making winning plays during his time at Texas Tech. He’s a three-level scorer as well as a highly capable passer who is currently averaging 3.0 assists per game. Although not a primary ball-handler, he is a capable playmaker in transition and has boasted an impressive assist-to-turnover ratio throughout his career. Williams does, however, struggle to create separation off the dribble and lacks the burst to attack adequate defenders consistently.

While Williams generated the bulk of headlines for this team heading into the season, most State fans would likely tell you that the team’s MVP up to the point has been point guard Quadir Copeland (14.0 points/7.0 assists).

Copeland, who began his career at Syracuse and played for Wade last season at McNeese State, is producing career-bests pretty much across the board. The senior has led the Pack in scoring in eight of the last 18 games, in assists in 17 of the last 18 games (including 16 consecutive games) and in steals in 10 of the last 18 games. Last week against SMU, Copeland dished out 16 assists and had no turnovers, becoming the first D-I player in over seven years to accomplish that feat. He has had at least nine assists in five consecutive games and overall has 54 assists (10.8 per game) and a 4.5 assist-to-turnover ratio in his last five outings.

For the season, Copeland has dished out 169 assists, the most ever in a single season in his collegiate career and already the most assists by an NC State player in the last five seasons. In addition to facilitating for his teammates, Copeland is a three-level scorer averaging a career-best 14.0 points per game this season while shooting a career-best 52.9 percent from the field, including 46.7 percent from three.

Suddenly, this guy who was more or less an afterthought in college hoops for the bulk of his career is rising up NBA draft boards.

Paul McNeil Jr. is an outside assassin who has made multiple three-pointers in 12 of NC State’s last 13 games. He has has made 53 three-pointers in his last 13 games (4.1 per game) and is shooting 48.6 percent from long range in those contests. For the season, McNeil is averaging 3.2 three-pointers per game to rank second in the ACC and 23rd in the NCAA. His three-point percentage of 43.5 percent leads the ACC and ranks 14th in the NCAA. If any Louisville defender leaves him or gives him enough space to catch and shoot on the perimeter, they need to be yanked out of the game immediately.

North Carolina transfer Ven-Allen Lubin (13.3 points/7.0 rebounds) has been the picture of consistency for NC State so far this season. He’s scored at least 11 points and grabbed at least 5 rebounds in eight consecutive games. He’s the one Pack player on the court who won’t launch from the outside unless left completely open, and even then he’s probably not going to shoot unless it’s late in the shot block. Lubin is a capable interior defender, but he’ll be giving up a few inches to Sananda Fru, an advantage Fru will hopefully be ready to exploit.

NC State plays fast, it takes care of the ball, and it’s the best three-point shooting team the Cards will have faced this season. Defensively, they are extremely aggressive and force a solid number of turnovers pretty much every time out, but they’re not the best when it comes to defending the three-point line, something Louisville has to take advantage of.

The other area of importance in this one is on the backboards. NC State doesn’t have tremendous size, leaving them susceptible to surrendering a solid amount of second chance opportunities. The Pack is 12-0 this season when it wins the rebounding battle and just 6-6 when it doesn’t. The Cards need to own the glass.

Notable:

—U of L will be hosting a “White Out” for Monday night’s game against NC State. The team will be wearing white uniforms and fans attending the game will be encouraged to wear white.

—Louisville has won 34 straight games when playing as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team at the KFC Yum Center.

—Louisville is currently 14th in the country in scoring margin at +15.1 points per game.

—NC State enters Monday night riding a six-game conference winning streak. The streak is the longest current win streak in the ACC and the longest win streak in ACC regular season play for NC State since the 1973-74 team that went 12-0 in the conference.

—NC State’s 9-2 record is its best mark in ACC play through 11 games since the 2003-04 season.

—NC State is 6-0 in ACC road games so far this season. It’s the first time the Pack has won its first six conference road games since the 1973–74 season, when NC State went undefeated in conference play and went on to capture the National Championship with a 30–1 overall record.

—Louisville is one of four DI teams with at least five victories of 40 points or more this season, joining Michigan (6), High Point (6) and Illinois (5).

—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 174-67 (.722) all-time in conference play as a head coach.

—In 11 road or neutral-site games, the Pack is shooting 48.4 percent, including 44.1 percent from three-point range, and averaging 84.9 points per game. NC State averages more threes per game away from Raleigh (11.6 per game in 11 games) than in home games (10.4 per game in 13 games).

—Louisville has won three consecutive games for the first time since the month of November.

—Louisville is 7-6 against NC State since joining the ACC in 2014-15.

—In its last nine games, NC State has passed out 154 assists and had just 74 turnovers (2.08 assist-to-turnover ratio). NC State is second in the ACC and ranks 13th in the NCAA with a 1.74 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. The 1.74 assist-to-turnover ratio would be a program record. The previous single-season best in program history is currently 1.61 by the 1987-88 team.

—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 1-0 in games against NC State.

—NC State head coach Will Wade will be coaching against Louisville for the first time.

—NC State has made double-digit three-pointers in 12 of 24 games this season. The Pack has had two games with 19 made three-pointers, a game with 17 made threes and three games with 16. They currently lead the ACC and rank seventh in the nation in three-point percentage at 40.2 percent.

—Louisville is 7-4 all-time in home games against NC State, but has lost two straight.

—NC State is 12-0 when it outrebounds its opponent this season, but just 6-6 when it is outrebounded.

—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.

—Louisville is 44-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-13 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Louisville is 121-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 83, NC State 79