Everyone was wrong about the Penguins this season

Sticking with our informal theme today about surprises, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the biggest surprises in what has turned into a very surprising NHL season.

The average margin of error for seven of the leading internet advanced stat models, plus betting over/unders and a large fan poll has added up to being off by 23 points for the Penguins. The only team that preseason prognosticators were more wrong about was Vancouver with a 31 point error — and in that case it was an over-statement where Vancouver was predicted to be a decent team with a 91-point total and instead has slumped away for the 60 point pace that they’re on for a path towards last place.

A lot of that shows just how quality the Penguins have been this season. They already have 70 points in the standings after 56 games — just 10 points fewer than 2024-25’s full season total of 80 (34-36-12 record). No one could have realistically expected a turnaround so dramatic and complete like that. There has always been the rote comments from inside the room about believing they could have a good season, though those comments were not much different from what had become a stubbornly proud team saying many of the same things in 2023 and 2024.

The reasons touched on in the earlier article are clear improvements across the board, in ways expected and those that have worked out to best case scenarios. The coaching inputs under Dan Muse has freed up the team. Management has added players like Egor Chinakhov, Brett Kulak and Stuart Skinner to help (and also didn’t make widescale subtractions of players like Bryan Rust or Rickard Rakell in the offseason). The players have come through too, whether it’s been franchise staples like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin doing what they’ve done for the last 20 years or fresh-faced rookies like Ben Kindel and the technically-a-rookie Arturs Silovs coming in and adding where they could or under-the-radar free agents making the most of changes of scenery like Parker Wotherspoon, Anthony Mantha and Justin Brazeau. The list of “what could have gone right” for the Penguins so far is virtually limitless compared to the list of previous seasons for “what went wrong” (goaltending, powerplay, depth support, coaching/management inputs) going quiet.

Add it all up and the results can be seen in the chart above to make the Penguins the biggest positive surprise of the NHL season so far. That’s been a frequent occurrence with other teams joining them in Minnesota, Boston, Detroit, Montreal, NY Islanders, Seattle and Anaheim taking big steps forward. Others like Buffalo and Columbus are working on it too. Some of those teams might not be primed to finish the story this year (cast a suspicious eye over to NYI, Seattle and Anaheim, in particular as potentially unsustainable Cinderella stories at risk of running out of gas before the finish line) but the theme of the season has been one of a wild variety or rises and falls that weren’t to be expected as recently as four or five months ago.

The NHL hasn’t always been the most unpredictable of sports within the regular season, though this year has seen enough conditions emerge to change that. Almost every franchise, even builders and recent uncompetitive teams, have clearly stated their intentions to improve and progress. There aren’t many patient teams in the stages of actively tearing down their clubs, though teams like Vancouver and the NY Rangers face uncomfortable and unwanted results forcing them to switch strategies, which has led to one of the more unpredictable and exciting seasons so far. That spirit has been on display in Pittsburgh just as much as anywhere, where for the first time in a while the Penguins are providing some excitement and positive surprises compared to the last few years mired in slumps and disappointments.